Published Date: April 30, 2025
Author: HANetf
Rearm Europe Plan: Readiness 2030 – The European Union has committed to bolstering European defence capabilities. The European Commission’s proposal, originally labelled “Rearm Europe”, is now known as “Readiness 2030”. The plan enables spending of over €800 billion by unleashing the use of public funding in defence at national level by activating the national escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, which will provide them additional budgetary space to increase their defence spending and via the Security Action for Europe – SAFE – a new dedicated financial instrument to help EU Member States increase investments in Europe’s defence capabilities. The Rearm Europe Plan prioritises the supply of strategic equipment, like air and missile defence, artillery systems, missiles, ammunition and drone and anti-drone systems. If each member state was to spend an additional 1.5% of its GDP on defence it would equate to €650 billion. In addition, the plan also provides for €150 billion in loans to buy defence capabilities mostly made in Europe. Additional funding sources for defence are also under consideration, including the mobilization of private funding. The EU is also studying the harmonisation of requirements and joint procurements to ensure a more efficient market, reduce costs, guarantee the cross-border access to supply chains, and increase the competitiveness of the European defence sector as a whole. More detailed provisions of the plan can be read here.
European and Asia-Pacific (APAC) defence stocks continue bull run – Defence stocks in Europe and Asia are experiencing an unprecedented bull run. Shares of South Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace has emerged as the best-performing global defence stock, up more than 175% over the last year. Similarly, German defence manufacturer Rheinmetall has doubled in value this year. A host of factors are driving the rally including the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the $832 billion (USD) European rearmament program, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and Israel’s war on Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Also on the radar is the possibility of rising conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. China’s assertive behaviour in the South China Sea is pushing countries in the Asia-Pacific, like the Philippines, Australia, and Taiwan, to boost defence spending, creating yet another factor supportive of the bull run in defence stocks.
US defence stocks lag – Despite the fact that the US remains the world’s largest defence equipment exporter, accounting for 43% of global arms exports between 2020 and 2024 according to SIPRI, US defence stocks are lagging their European and Asian peers. The Trump Administration’s stance on Europe and Canada, and its halting of US defence aid to Ukraine, has sent NATO members looking for alternative sources of defence equipment to reduce their dependence on the US. Canada and Portugal are rethinking their orders of F-35 fighter jets as France positions Dassault Aviation’s Rafale fighter jet as an alternative. And Korean defence firms like Hanwha Aerospace are expected to benefit with cheaper alternatives to US weapons. Hanwha Aerospace is supplying Poland with 368 K9 self-propelled howitzers (including K9A1 and K9PL variants) under two contracts, with deliveries expected to continue through 2027. And the Australian Army is ordering from Hanwha as well, as it becomes the “Korean version of Lockheed Martin.” Also weighing on US defence names has been concern about government budget cuts and DOGE.
Musk and DOGE favour drones – Fighter jets have long been synonymous with American military might. But disruptive technologies led by drones and artificial intelligence are raising questions about their role in the next-generation arms race, rattling many US defence stocks in the process. In the Pentagon’s dream arsenal, U.S. military drones will play a larger role, much to the dismay of legacy fighter jet manufacturers such as Boeing, RTX, and Lockheed Martin. As a result, US defence manufacturers are scrambling to ramp up production in drones. The US military’s drone fleet is evolving into an array of unmanned vehicles that can assist with various offensive, surveillance and logistics missions, including the MQ-1C Gray Eagle, MQ-4C Triton, RQ-4 Global Hawk, MQ-9 Reaper, and other drones manufactured by private company General Atomics, and public companies like Boeing and Northrop Grumman. The next wave of U.S. military drones and jets aim to be more advanced and to require less human involvement.
President Donald Trump on March 21 awarded Boeing the Air Force contract to build the NGAD fighter, which has been designated the F-47, with „state-of-the-art stealth technologies — virtually unseeable — and unprecedented power, the most power of any jet of its kind ever made.“ Trump added that the F-47 is expected to operate with the upcoming fleet of CCA drones. In January 2024, the Air Force awarded initial CCA contracts to five companies: Costa Mesa, Calif.-based Anduril, as well as Boeing, General Atomics, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman (NOC).
Norway’s opposition urges end to wealth-fund ban on defence stocks – Two of Norway’s leading opposition parties are calling for a major policy shift that would allow the country’s $1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund to invest in weapons manufacturers. The country’s Government Pension Fund Global — the world’s largest — has been prohibited from holding shares in most defence manufacturers since the early 2000s because of parliamentary rules excluding companies involved in the production of nuclear or cluster munitions. This ban has blocked investments in major firms such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Airbus. With national elections approaching, the center-right Conservative Party and the right-wing Progress Party argue that the policy is outdated, particularly given Norway’s reliance on NATO and U.S. military protection.
Data as of 31.03.2025. Sources available upon request.
Source: VettaFi as of 31.03.2025.
The global world order for defence is shifting. While the US is focused on shifting costs to new technologies such as drones, AI, cyber defence, and robotics, it is leaving its traditional allies to fend for themselves. As a result, Europe and Asia are now focused on rearmament and pursuing a path of less reliance on the US. This shift in policy appears to be at the expense of US defence contractors and a supply chain that had previously supplied 43% of the world’s arms. With Europe and Asia committed to ramping up their own capabilities, America’s role as a defence supplier and superpower has diminished. If there is a theme in America’s grand strategy that has persisted for the past 80 years, it is that taking a leading role in the world is generally to the benefit of US interests. But that does not seem to be the approach being pursued under the Trump Administration. This has changed the perception that the US can be relied upon as a military ally or as a democracy with effective checks and balances. US participation in NATO, the United Nations, and other global governing bodies are also now in jeopardy. As a result, countries that have previously relied on the US for their security and defence will be able to do so no more and spending will shift toward European and Asian suppliers.
Source: TMXVettaFi. Additional sources available upon request.
NATO (Fund)NATONTR (Index)1M-4.22%-4.20%3M2.19%2.32%6M9.28%9.51%YTD12.64%13.00%12M5.47%5.90%3Y169.33%173.43%Since Inception (03/07/2023)167.11%171.37%
Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 30.09.2026
Performance before inception is based on back-tested data. Backtesting is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such a strategy would have been. Back-tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk.
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