Published Date: November 22, 2024
Author: HANetf
Change is in the air. Europe is concerned that Trump’s victory could shake the alliance to the very core. The Truman doctrine of giving military, economic and political support to democratic nations under threat is very different to Trump’s policy of America First. A U.S. withdrawal from NATO would leave a large hole considering the U.S. currently has more than 100,000 military personnel deployed in Europe and billions of dollars in military equipment. But many Republicans believe Europe should look after itself, in order to focus on the rising threat posed by China. NATO officials acknowledge that America’s share of aid to Ukraine will probably decrease in relative terms as Europe cannot expect the U.S. to continue giving an „outsized“ contribution.
U.S. defence spending sees biggest surge since Iraq War – Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have led to a sharp increase in U.S. defence spending. The U.S. defence budget increased 14.9% in Q3, the most since 2003. According to a report by Santander Capital Markets, U.S. spending on missiles jumped an annualized 26.6%, while outlays on electronics rose 15.8%. Spending on weapons support services increased at a 25.7% rate, while transportation of materials surged 277%. $95 billion in national security supplemental funding was approved, including money for Ukraine, Israel, and allies in the Pacific region, with $30 billion slated to go toward munitions and weapon systems.
Poland leads NATO on defence spending – Poland’s defence spending is seen rising to 4.7% of GDP in 2025, even as it expects a $10 billion revenue shortfall. Among the expenditures is a $4.6 billion deal to buy 32 Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets and 96 Boeing AH-64E Apache attack helicopters for $12 billion as it bolsters its armed forces following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Polish debt levels of around 50% of GDP are much lower than in euro zone members France and Italy, but its government spending as a percentage of the economy posted one of the fastest rises in the EU last year and at 46.7% of economic output and the second highest since Poland joined the bloc in 2004. Poland’s military has become NATO’s third-largest by personnel this year behind the U.S. and Turkey, while its share of equipment spending has eclipsed both the 20% NATO guideline and U.S. spending rates in recent years.
UK Pledges an Additional £2.9 billion on Defence Spending – The UK has announced it intends to increase its defence spending by £2.9 billion next year according to its newly released budget, achieving a 2.5% of GDP level, up from 2.3% of GDP in 2024 representing an increase of 5.3%. According to UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the new funding will allow UK armed forces to “modernise” and sustain Britain’s “leading role in NATO, including through the nuclear deterrent, combat and surveillance aircraft, surface and submarine fleets, forward land forces, Special Forces and cyber and space capabilities.” The UK also guaranteed military support to Ukraine of £3 billion per year for as long as it takes.
Sources available upon request. Please remember that when you invest in ETFs, your capital is at risk.
Northrop Grumman lifts 2024 profit forecast again as global defense spending climbs – U.S. defense company Northrop Grumman raised its 2024 profit forecast for the second time this year amid increased global defence spending prompted by conflicts in the Middle East and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war. Geopolitical tensions have also benefited arms manufacturers such as Lockheed Martin and RTX, both of whom have also raised their 2024 earnings forecasts. Thales signs agreement for joint missile production – Thales Belgium and a Ukrainian defence company have signed a memorandum on joint production of missiles to counter enemy drones.
EU aiming to become less reliant on U.S. – European Union nations are heavily dependent on foreign defence equipment, with nearly two-thirds of their military purchases coming from the United States. A report from former Italian PM Mario Draghi says Europe is squandering its collective resources. Europe’s significant spending power remains diluted across multiple national and EU initiatives. The report calls for a major overhaul of the bloc’s industrial strategy to strengthen the European defence sector. European defence contractors expected to benefit from reforms include: BAE Systems, Leonardo and Saab, whose order flows rose to near-record high of more than $300bn. Ground warfare in Ukraine has also depleted national stockpiles of ammunition and other artillery, benefiting not only Germany’s Rheinmetall and Scandinavia’s Nammo. Suppliers of explosives and propellants, including Chemring of the UK and France’s Eurenco, have also been winners, along with radar and German optical sensor maker Hensoldt.
Wars in the Ukraine, the Middle East, and rising concerns about China, are spurring record levels of defence spending. Global defence spending reached a record $2.4 trillion USD for 2024, and is not likely to decline any time soon, not only due to more global conflicts, but in order to modernise defence equipment and capabilities. According to Deloitte, defence modernisation will drive more spending in 2025, with the potential for broad-based operationalization of many technologies, from artificial intelligence and advanced air mobility (AAM) to unmanned systems. AI and digital technologies are expected to help accelerate progress in various areas, including enhancing aftermarket services and optimising supply chain. Rocket technologies and space capabilities are two other areas Deloitte expects to see grow in 2025. Regardless of the political environment, defence spending will remain strong in 2025 and beyond and defence companies will continue to benefit from strong order flows tied to new innovative technologies and solutions.
NATO (Fund)NATONTR (Index)1M-4.22%-4.20%3M2.19%2.32%6M9.28%9.51%YTD12.64%13.00%12M5.47%5.90%3Y169.33%173.43%Since Inception (03/07/2023)167.11%171.37%
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