Future of Defence Report | September 2025

Defence ETF, European Defence ETF, and Indo-Pacific Defence ETF – Key Takeaways 

NATO defence spending surges to record $1.6 trillion – Defence spending among NATO allies is expected to increase 15.9% in 2025, the second largest annual increase in more than a decade as spending increased to $1.6 trillion. The annual overall spending increase for 2025 was 15.9%, down slightly from the previous year’s annual boost but still larger than at any other time in recent NATO history. NATO defence spending rose 9.3% in 2023 and 18.6% in 2024 amid concerns about further Russian aggression in Europe. NATO reports that 31 out of the 32 NATO members are now achieving the 2% of GDP target, except Iceland which is exempt. This increase in spending comes at a time when allies will be shooting for an even higher target of 5% of GDP, which will include 3.5% in traditional defence priorities and 1.5% dedicated to infrastructure and defence technology.1  

US disapproves of creative NATO accounting – The US disapproves of NATO’s “creative accounting” methods to achieve the new 5% of GDP target. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said the 5% target referred specifically to defence and defence-related spending, and should not include projects like bridges with no military strategic value. This puts Italy on the spot for its proposed €13.5 billion ($15.7 billion) project to connect the island of Sicily to Italy’s mainland, which is being classified as a dual use defence project and NATO military asset.  Proponents highlight its potential to enhance southern Europe’s strategic connectivity, enabling faster NATO responses to Mediterranean threats. Greece’s inclusion of intelligence-gathering expenditures in its defense budget, and the UK’s reclassification of pensions as defense-related spending, have also drawn scrutiny as creative accounting. Whitaker raised practical concerns about 1) lack of troops, 2) weak economic growth in Europe, and 3) cyber risks. Cyber risks were recently elevated as a significant concern after a plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was disrupted by jamming as it landed in Bulgaria. Authorities said the interference was likely initiated by Russia.2 

Only three countries achieving the new NATO target – Figures for 2025 showed all allies achieving the 2% of GDP target, but only three countries are now spending more than 3.5% on defence in line with the new 5% of GDP guidelines: Poland at 4.48%, Lithuania at 4% and Latvia with 3.73%. While NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised higher defence spending by alliance members, he said it was important to turn the extra money into military capabilities. „Cash alone doesn’t provide security,“ Rutte said at the factory in the town of Unterluess owned by German arms firm Rheinmetall. „Deterrence doesn’t come from 5%. Deterrence comes from the capability to fight off potential enemies.3 

European defence stocks send false peace signal – European defence stocks sold off on the prospect of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Eight big European military suppliers, collectively worth $307 billion, lost over $15 billion or 5% of their equity value by midmorning London time the following day. Worst hit were Germany’s $7 billion Renk, which makes tank gearboxes, and Italy’s $30 billion Leonardo, known for helicopters and surveillance systems. These names have since rebounded on the false signal of hope, but it highlights the premium valuations in play amid soaring price-earnings multiples.4 

What are the tailwinds for European defence? – A recent Goldman Sachs report highlights how Europe holds a significant advantage as a world power in the realm of defence and foreign policy. The EU remains the world’s second-largest economy. Europe’s economic capacity, human capital, ongoing investments and reforms, and leadership at the national and supranational levels demonstrate that it can play a stronger role in global affairs.  

  • Europe has significantly more resources than its primary rival Russia. The EU’s combined GDP is more than nine times larger than that of Russia. At nearly 450 million inhabitants, the EU’s population is also approximately three times that of Russia.  
  • European NATO member states are increasing their defence investments. NATO member states, especially in Europe, have been increasing defence spending since at least 2014. Today, all NATO members meet the 2% spending threshold agreed to at the 2014 NATO Wales Summit and have agreed to a 5% target by 2035, including 1.5% for defence-related matters like cyber security and infrastructure. 
  • The European defense industry is growing. European defence stocks surged as a result of renewed investments and pledges of more of a focus on defence. The continent is home to many world-class defence companies, many of which have increased production significantly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Five of the 20 largest defence companies in the world are European (nine are American). Many of these defence companies have the capacity to ramp up production lines but have lacked the orders to justify such actions.  
  • The EU is acting. The European Commission’s ReArm Europe plan loosens fiscal rules to allow member states to spend an additional €650 billion on defence. More than half of member states intend to boost defence spending above the bloc’s spending limits. The Commission’s plan also includes a €150 billion loans-for-arms fund that will allow member states to procure weapons systems from European, and likely British, defence producers, with orders potentially coordinated by the Commission. The EU and the UK signed a new defence and security partnership in May 2025 that will formalise security cooperation. 
  • Europe has enormous untapped economic and security capacities. Public investments, partnerships with the private sector, and competitiveness reforms, potentially along the lines suggested earlier last year by former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi can continue to move the needle.5 

NATO strengthens dialogue and cooperation with Indo-Pacific region – NATO is strengthening dialogue and cooperation with its partners in the Indo-Pacific region – Australia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand. In today’s complex security environment, relations with like-minded partners are increasingly important to address cross-cutting security issues and global challenges. The Indo-Pacific Region is important for the Alliance, given that developments in that region can directly affect Euro-Atlantic security. Moreover, NATO and its partners in the region share common values and a goal of working together to uphold the rules-based international order. In addition to dialogue, two landmark documents were agreed in 2022 that enhanced NATO’s cooperation with the partners from the Indo-Pacific region: the “Agenda for Tackling Shared Security Challenges” and “NATO 2022 Strategic Concept”.6 

Australia and the Philippines wrap up exercises –The Exercise Alon 25 concluded successfully in the Philippines, strengthening the security partnership between the Australian Defence Force (ADF) and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). Alon 25, the ADF’s largest overseas exercise this year, involved approximately 3,600 participants, including 1,600 ADF personnel training together between 15 and 29 August.7 

Company News – Earnings Analysis (NATO) 

Source: VettaFi as of 31.08.2025. For illustrative purposes only. 

Company News – Earnings Analysis (ARMY) 

Source: VettaFi as of 31.08.2025. For illustrative purposes only. 

Company News – Earnings Analysis (QUAD) 

 

Source: VettaFi as of 31.08.2025. For illustrative purposes only. 

Largest positive Q2 2025 earnings surprises (NATO) 

Source: VettaFi as of 31.08.2025. For illustrative purposes only. 

Largest negative Q2 2025 earnings surprises (NATO) 

Source: VettaFi as of 31.08.2025. For illustrative purposes only. 

Largest positive Q2 2025 earnings surprises (ARMY) 

   

Source: VettaFi as of 31.08.2025. For illustrative purposes only. 

Largest negative Q2 2025 earnings surprises (ARMY) 

Source: VettaFi as of 31.08.2025. For illustrative purposes only. 

Largest positive Q2 2025 earnings surprises (QUAD) 

Source: VettaFi as of 31.08.2025. For illustrative purposes only. 

Largest negative Q2 2025 earnings surprises (QUAD) 

Source: VettaFi as of 31.08.2025. For illustrative purposes only. 

Product Comparisons 

   

 

     

Source: VettaFi as of 31.08.2025. For illustrative purposes only.

Macro Outlook – Resurgent demand for defence capabilities shifts focus to efficiencies and next-gen solutions 

A rise in global conflicts and geopolitical instability has prompted over 100 countries to increase military spending to record levels of $2.7 trillion, creating a surge in demand for defence capabilities – described by Morningstar as a “new defense supercycle”. Morningstar expects European defence spending to be a key driver of this new cycle. European defence budgets are set to grow 6.8% annually from 2024 to 2035, outpacing the US (1.7%), Russia (3.2%), and China (3.1%). Europe’s share of global defence spending is projected to increase from 16% to 22% by 2030, stabilizing through 2035. Beyond Europe, global governments are increasing defense budgets to fund modernisation efforts against emerging threats. There is a rising focus on incorporating advanced technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI), autonomous systems, and data analytics into defense applications, with companies leading in these areas becoming prime investment targets. New threats in areas like space and cyber warfare are driving increased investment in advanced capabilities, including satellite technology.8   

Defence ETF Performance
As of 30.09.2026

NATO (Fund)NATONTR (Index)
1M-4.22%-4.20%
3M2.19%2.32%
6M9.28%9.51%
YTD12.64%13.00%
12M5.47%5.90%
3Y169.33%173.43%
Since Inception (03/07/2023)167.11%171.37%
Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of

Performance before inception is based on back-tested data. Backtesting is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such a strategy would have been. Back-tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk.


[1] https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2025-09-02/nato-annual-defense-spending-18951124.html

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/us-frowns-on-italy-s-idea-of-making-sicily-bridge-a-nato-asset?sref=on4LSPp2

[3] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/all-nato-members-hit-old-spending-target-only-three-meet-new-goal-2025-08-27/

[4] https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/european-defence-stocks-send-false-peace-signal-2025-08-19/

[5] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-future-of-european-defense

[6] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_183254.htm

[7] https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/australia-the-philippines-wrap-up-exercise-alon-25/

[8] https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/defense-sector-on-the-radar#:~:text=Quick%20Read,Investment%20in%20A.I.; https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/industrial-products/library/aerospace-defense-deals-outlook.html; https://www.morningstar.com/financial-advisors/global-defense-market-trends-how-geopolitical-shifts-are-shaping-opportunities-sector

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