Defence, energy, and gold

Iran crisis – four sectors to keep on your radar

Published date: 5th March 2026 | Author: Jake Coulson

Summary:

Following US and Israeli strikes, Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US facilities, Israel, and Gulf states.
The widening regional confrontation is adding to an already volatile geopolitical backdrop.
Four sectors that could be poised to benefit include:
- Defence
- Oil and gas infrastructure
- Uranium and uranium miners
- Gold

Following US and Israeli strikes, Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US facilities, Israel, and Gulf states. Amid the widening regional confrontation, we’ve analysed four investment themes that could be poised to benefit.

How might defence stocks fair?

The heightened geopolitical tensions that characterised recent years have continued into 2026. The “rules-based order” that once imposed a degree of restraint on state behaviour is seemingly over.
Already, governments around the world had been reassessing defence spending targets – last year, NATO allies committed to 5% of GDP defence spending by 2035.

« The latest conflict only adds to the sense that the world is becoming more volatile »

Especially with strikes hitting tourist hubs, like Dubai, that have long marketed themselves as stable, apolitical, and safe.

In particular, anti-missile and counter-drone technology will be front-of-mind for governments given the nature of recent strikes. Defence companies could be poised to benefit.

Thales, for example, already collaborates with the UAE on radar and air-surveillance systems. Similarly, Rheinmetall has previously partnered with Emirati defence entities on short-range air defence systems designed specifically to counter drones.

Theme	Product	Ticker	Exposure
Defence	Future of Defence UCITS ETF	NATO	NATO and NATO+ ally defence and cyber defence spending
	Future of Defence Screened UCITS ETF	NATE	Article 8 NATO defence and cyber defence spending
	Future of European Defence Screened UCITS ETF	ARMY	Article 8 NATO and NATO+ ally defence and cyber defence spending, ex-US
	Future of Defence Indo-Pac ex-China UCITS ETF	QUAD	Indo-Pacific defence spending, ex-China

Especially with strikes hitting tourist hubs, like Dubai, that have long marketed themselves as stable, apolitical, and safe.

In particular, anti-missile and counter-drone technology will be front-of-mind for governments given the nature of recent strikes. Defence companies could be poised to benefit.

The potential impact on oil & gas infrastructure?

Strikes hitting one of the world’s most important oil- and gas-producing regions has naturally sent energy prices soaring.

Iran itself is a major oil producer and exporter, while roughly a fifth of global petroleum demand and liquefied natural gas supply (LNG) flow from Gulf states through the embattled Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Aramco has shut down the world’s largest refinery in Saudi Arabia, while Qatar – responsible for around 20% of global LNG supply –has halted LNG production.

Gas prices have jumped by over 50%, marking the largest increase since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in March 2022.

The US, already the world’s largest supplier of crude oil and LNG, may need to increase supply to help meet global demand. With uncertainty over how long the Middle East crisis may persist, buyers could begin reassessing their supplier relationships if regional stability remains in question.

This could create a tailwind for the US midstream energy sector, which may need to expand capacity to accommodate shifting global demand.

Theme	Product	Ticker	Exposure
Energy	Alerian Midstream Energy Dividend UCITS ETF	MMLP	Processing, transportation, and storage of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids

The potential impact on oil & gas infrastructure?

Strikes hitting one of the world’s most important oil- and gas-producing regions has naturally sent energy prices soaring.

Saudi Aramco has shut down the world’s largest refinery in Saudi Arabia, while Qatar – responsible for around 20% of global LNG supply –has halted LNG production.

Gas prices have jumped by over 50%, marking the largest increase since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in March 2022.

This could create a tailwind for the US midstream energy sector, which may need to expand capacity to accommodate shifting global demand.

Could we see uranium and miners capitalise?

At the same time, the disruption highlights the strategic appeal of energy sources less exposed to geopolitical chokepoints.

Nuclear power, which relies on relatively small volumes of fuel that can be stockpiled for years, offers a level of energy security that oil and gas markets often cannot.

Unlike fossil fuel supply chains that depend on continuous transport through vulnerable shipping routes, nuclear reactors can operate for extended periods with limited fuel deliveries.

This dynamic may bring renewed attention to uranium and the companies that mine it. As governments look to diversify energy systems and reduce dependence on volatile hydrocarbon supply routes, nuclear energy is increasingly viewed as a stable, domestic source of baseload power.

In that context, uranium miners, and the price of physical uranium itself, could benefit from a growing recognition that nuclear power plays an important role not only in decarbonisation, but also in strengthening long-term energy security.

Theme	Product	Ticker	Exposure
Energy	Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF	URNM	Uranium miners with allocation to physical uranium
	Sprott Junior Uranium Miners UCITS ETF	URNJ	Junior uranium miners
	Sprott Physical Uranium ETC	SPUT	Physical uranium

Could we see uranium and miners capitalise?

At the same time, the disruption highlights the strategic appeal of energy sources less exposed to geopolitical chokepoints.

Nuclear power, which relies on relatively small volumes of fuel that can be stockpiled for years, offers a level of energy security that oil and gas markets often cannot.

Unlike fossil fuel supply chains that depend on continuous transport through vulnerable shipping routes, nuclear reactors can operate for extended periods with limited fuel deliveries.

Will gold continue its rally?

In this increasingly chaotic environment, gold is likely to be on investors’ minds. The precious metal has long been considered a safe haven during periods of instability – whether geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, or financial market volatility.

The ongoing crisis in the Middle East may well see a continuation of this “flight to safety,” particularly as energy markets react and geopolitical risks intensify.

At the same time, the reemergence of tariff turmoil earlier this year has added another layer of uncertainty to the global economic outlook. Trade frictions can disrupt supply chains, increase costs, and weigh on growth expectations, all of which may reinforce demand for assets perceived as more resilient in turbulent environments.

Against this backdrop, gold may benefit from a convergence of geopolitical risk, trade tensions, and broader concerns around economic stability.

Theme	Product	Ticker	Exposure
Gold	The Royal Mint Responsibly Sourced Physical Gold ETC	RMAU	Responsibly sourced physical gold, custodied by The Royal Mint at their highly secure vault in Wales.
Gold	Gold Miners Screened UCITS ETF	ESGO	Article 8 gold miners with allocation to physical gold

Will gold continue its rally?

The ongoing crisis in the Middle East may well see a continuation of this “flight to safety,” particularly as energy markets react and geopolitical risks intensify.

Against this backdrop, gold may benefit from a convergence of geopolitical risk, trade tensions, and broader concerns around economic stability.

Key Risks

When you invest in ETFs or ETCs your capital is at risk. Thematic ETFs are exposed to a limited number of sectors and thus the investment will be concentrated and may experience high volatility. Exchange rates can have a positive or negative effect on returns. Investors’ capital is fully at risk and may not get back the amount originally invested. The price of uranium can be volatile, and can go up and down. The performance of uranium miners is tied to the price of uranium, which has potential for volatility. The defence industry can be significantly affected by government regulation and spending policies because companies involved in this industry rely, to a significant extent, on government demand for their products and services. The financial condition of defence companies is heavily influenced by government defence spending, which may be reduced in efforts to control government budgets. Gold mining companies are highly dependent on the price of gold and may be adversely affected by a variety of worldwide economic, financial and political factors. The price of gold has fluctuated in recent years and may continue to fluctuate substantially over short periods of time.

Adapting precision warfare: How US defence spending priorities are changing

October 2026

Iran crisis – four sectors to keep on your radar

How might defence stocks fair?

﻿ « The latest conflict only adds to the sense that the world is becoming more volatile »

The potential impact on oil & gas infrastructure?

The potential impact on oil & gas infrastructure?

Could we see uranium and miners capitalise?

Could we see uranium and miners capitalise?

Will gold continue its rally?

Will gold continue its rally?

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« The latest conflict only adds to the sense that the world is becoming more volatile »