Navigating geopolitics, energy security and structural demand

Hard Assets in Hard Times

Published date: 22nd April 2026 | Author: Cameron MacDonald

Executive Summary

What’s the outlook for gold after recent volatility?
Does the Middle East conflict strengthen the structural case for nuclear and uranium?
Which regions stand to benefit from disruption to Middle East oil & gas supply?

The 2020s have been volatile. From rising geopolitical tensions and disruptive trade policies to energy shocks, investors are navigating an increasingly fragmented and unpredictable world.

In this environment, resilience matters. Not all assets respond to uncertainty in the same way.

How might key hard assets behave during periods of disruption, and where could potential opportunities lie for investors today?

« In a world full of geopolitical risk, this trend towards greater central bank buying seems likely to persist. »

Gold

Gold has traditionally served as a hedge during periods of geopolitical stress, persistent inflation, and market volatility. This safe-haven demand has been a key driver of the rally since 2022, with gold reaching a peak of $5,300 in January this year. It is perhaps somewhat surprising, therefore, that with the outbreak of war in the Middle East, gold prices have struggled, coming off their peaks.

But to understand the future of gold, we should put current prices in context. The price is still roughly double where it was just a few years ago, reflecting strong structural demand. This demand is potentially driven by two related trends: central bank buying and unsustainable debt loads.

Since 2022, central banks have hoovered up large quantities of gold. Central banks in China and other emerging markets have led the way, with most analysts believing this was in response to the US and Europe freezing Russia’s central bank reserves after its invasion of Ukraine. For some central banks, this exposed a vulnerability in holding dollars or euros – gold, in contrast, cannot be frozen or seized in the same way.

In a world full of geopolitical risk, this trend towards greater central bank buying seems likely to persist.

At the same time, debt levels in developed economies have exploded over recent decades. During the years of ultra-low interest rates, this was seemingly manageable. But since the outbreak of post-Covid inflation, the interest rates governments pay on their debt have surged. The US, for example, now pays more to service its debt than it does on defence.

This has raised fears that governments may start to pressure central banks to lower interest rates to keep debt manageable. That, however, risks currency depreciation and inflation. The response from investors has been dubbed the “debasement trade”—in practice, buying gold and other hard assets with the potential to preserve value.

Despite recent volatility, these demand drivers for the yellow metal seem likely to remain.

Uranium

Europe is looking to restart a number of nuclear power plants

The current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is the second time the world has experienced an energy shock in the 2020s, the first being the fallout from the war in Ukraine. In both cases, geopolitics has led to severe supply disruption and price increases for oil & gas, and with that higher energy costs for consumers.

As a result, energy security is at the top of the agenda for governments around the world. A growing consensus is emerging that nuclear energy offers a compelling solution. In contrast to a gas-fired power plant, the cost of fuel is a small percentage of the overall running costs of a nuclear plant, insulating it from price spikes. Moreover, most nuclear power plants keep several years’ worth of fuel on-site, owing to the energy density of uranium. This allows them to better weather supply disruptions.

As a result, governments around the world are expanding nuclear capacity, either through the construction of new plants or extending the life cycle of existing ones. At the same time, governments are investing in next-generation technologies such as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).

This is driving strong demand growth across the nuclear value chain, from companies that construct and maintain power plants to those involved in uranium enrichment and mining.

« The question, where can a more stable energy supply can be found? North America offers one such solution. »

Midstream Energy

But as much of a solution as nuclear energy is, building nuclear power plants is slow, and oil & gas will remain a key part of many countries’ energy mix for decades to come. The question, therefore, is where more stable supply can be found. North America offers one such solution.

The fracking revolution has driven a surge in US energy production, with the country going from a net importer to one of the world’s largest exporters of both oil and gas. This creates opportunities in the ‘midstream’ energy space. Midstream companies are those that store, process, and transport oil and gas.

Within North America, this includes pipeline operators transporting oil & gas from where it is produced to where it is consumed. It also includes liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, linking North America’s abundant energy resources to gas-hungry markets in Europe and Asia.

Operators of this infrastructure typically receive inflation-linked fees based on the volumes they transport. As a result, it is a less volatile sector than upstream oil & gas producers extracting the commodity, and one that can potentially offer stable dividend payments.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION This document is approved for professional use only.

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The content in this document is issued by HANetf Limited (“HANetf”) and approved by Privium Fund Management (UK) Limited (“Privium”). HANetf is an appointed representative of Privium, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The registered office of Privium is The Shard, 24th Floor, 32 London Bridge Street, London, SE1 9SG

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Executive Summary

﻿ « In a world full of geopolitical risk, this trend towards greater central bank buying seems likely to persist. »

Gold

Uranium

﻿ « The question, where can a more stable energy supply can be found? North America offers one such solution. »

Midstream Energy

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« In a world full of geopolitical risk, this trend towards greater central bank buying seems likely to persist. »

« The question, where can a more stable energy supply can be found? North America offers one such solution. »