The forces shaping crypto’s next move

What’s in store for cryptocurrency for the rest of 2026?

Last updated: 7th September 2026 | Author: Harry Halewood

Summary

Bitcoin spent most of Q3 this year at a resistance price, before breaking upwards in mid-August
Factors including US financial policy and market sentiment were potential catalysts
Catalyst impact could be significant should we see a sustained rally in prices

The Current State of Crypto

Bitcoin’s movements over the last couple of years have reaffirmed its status as a turbulent asset. Having reached an all-time-high of around $126,000 after a 12-month price increase of almost 100%, it spent 8 months sliding back down to the level where that meteoric rise began. The price now shows signs of consolidation having spent two months hovering around this point, testing the $65,000 breakout level.[1]

A positive value adjustment rarely follows a prolonged period of positive returns,[2] and in this vein said price consolidation was tested to the upside as the price of bitcoin rose over 21% in 3 days. Market sentiment showed its susceptibility to the reporting of key narrative events, such as the following.

US Policy Discussions

The USA holds around 1.5% of the current global Bitcoin supply,[3] so it is no surprise that the States’ attitude towards cryptocurrencies can significantly influence broader sentiment.

There have been considerable fluctuations in the USA’s attitude towards cryptocurrencies between different administrations; a noteworthy characteristic of the Trump administration has been a favourable view of crypto markets. A key moment for Bitcoin was the opening of the USA’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in 2025[4], following which Bitcoin jumped over 40%.

We now see congressional discussions about the CLARITY Act, a bill that would legitimise digital assets by establishing a regulatory framework and clarifying the roles of the SEC and CFTC in relation to digital assets. The act failed to pass prior to the Senate’s closure for recess on August 7^th, which many see as its likely demise, but Bitwise commentators suggest otherwise.[5] SEC Chair Paul Atkins made it clear that the SEC would be ready to implement their own rules should CLARITY fail, and with the SEC likely to take a more supportive approach to crypto regulation this could present a significant tailwind.

« The bitcoin options market is currently made up of open positions totalling over $25bn. (8) »

Market Confidence

One of the most significant factors relating to prices, not just for Bitcoin but for risk assets broadly, is investor sentiment[6]. Bitcoin is by far the most prevalent of the digital assets, and the huge performance peaks over its lifetime have left investors expecting strength. This expectation of performance means that any perceived good news generally pulls flows with it as investors race to ride this wave of positive sentiment. This has meant historic market sentiment correlates observably with price strength.[7]

In the present day, this historic link paints a potentially rosy picture of Bitcoin’s potential. The bitcoin options market is currently made up of open positions totalling over $25bn.[8] Of this total around 60% are call options, which require positive price movements to make a return. On top of this, July provided positive net flows (+$220m) into spot bitcoin ETFs[9] following dramatic outflows in June. Though this positive adjustment was modest, it suggested a net reversal of an ongoing lack of confidence in bitcoin performance. All these long bets on the Bitcoin price paint a picture of a market that is betting on a reversal in the fortune of cryptocurrency, which in the past has been something of a self-fulfilling prophecy[10].

Macroeconomic Influence

As a decentralised asset, it is hard to tie any specific macroeconomic indicator to cryptocurrency performance, but we can certainly observe correlation if we look backwards. For example, crypto follows a similar trajectory to risk assets when assessed against monetary policy, favouring environments where aims are expansionary and rates are low. Recent activity within the US administration created uncertainty in the markets and prompted sudden reactions that helped drive recent price performance.[11]

Prior to this we saw a notable decline in the US treasury yield, prompted by weaker than expected labour market data [12]. This was swiftly followed by a CPI print that showed prices holding steady at the level broadly expected before their release [13]. Both factors lend themselves to expansionary monetary policy, with stable prices and a declining payroll making a case for pursuit of growth. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, potentially increasing relative return.

Crypto in the Balance

All the above historical analysis shows the suddenness with which crypto markets can reverse, and in a turbulent global environment there are plenty of indicators to observe that might drive crypto prices one way or the other. Frequent shocks have created scepticism about the extent to which further downside risk might enter the market, and this subsequently opens to door to potential investment opportunities. One step in the right direction could break Bitcoin out of its resistance level and bring us back to an environment of optimism and performance.

[1] https://www.kraken.com/prices/bitcoin

[2] https://arxiv.org/html/1909.04327v1

[3] https://bitcointreasuries.net/governments

[4] https://www.lw.com/en/us-crypto-policy-tracker

[5] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-expect-clarity-fails-week-bitwise-asset-management-2o4se/?trackingId=J27zY6n%2BHWiNqZAzNg%2FwWg%3D%3D

[6] https://www.investopedia.com/news/are-bitcoin-price-and-equity-markets-returns-correlated/

[7] https://dl.acm.org/doi/fullHtml/10.1145/3653724.3653755

[8] https://pluang.com/en/news-feed/opsi-bitcoin-optimis-minat-buka-hampir-25-miliar

[9] https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/bitcoin-outlook–etf-inflows-return-but-btc-lags-record-high-equ-260812

[10] https://dl.acm.org/doi/fullHtml/10.1145/3653724.3653755

[11] https://www.inc.com/phil-rosen/bitcoin-treasury-scott-bessent-bond-market-buybacks-crypto/91401326

[12] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/aug/07/july-jobs-report-middle-east-conflict

[13] https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/cpi-inflation-report-july-2026.html

This material does not constitute a marketing document. It is not an invitation to invest but to be read for educational purposes only. Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION This document is approved for professional use only.

Communications issued in the UK

The content in this document is issued by HANetf Limited (“HANetf”) and approved by Privium Fund Management (UK) Limited (“Privium”). HANetf is an appointed representative of Privium, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The registered office of Privium is The Shard, 24th Floor, 32 London Bridge Street, London, SE1 9SG

This communication has been prepared for professional investors, but the exchange traded product (“ETCs”) and exchange traded fund (“ETFs”) set out in this communication (“Products”) may be available in some jurisdictions to any investors. Please check with your broker or intermediary that the relevant Product is available in your jurisdiction and suitable for your investment profile.

Disclaimers

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The price of the Products may vary and they do not offer a fixed income. This document may contain forward looking statements including statements regarding our belief or current expectations with regards to the performance of certain assets classes. Forward looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. There can be no assurance that such statements will be accurate and actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Therefore, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The content of this document is for information purposes and for your internal use only, and does not constitute an investment advice, recommendation, investment research or an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any Product or make any investment.

An investment in an exchange traded product is dependent on the performance of the underlying asset class, less costs, but it is not expected to track that performance exactly. The Products involve numerous risks including among others, general market risks relating to underlying adverse price movements in an Index (for ETFs) or underlying asset class and currency, liquidity, operational, legal and regulatory risks. In addition, in relation to Cryptocurrency ETCs, these are highly volatile digital assets and performance is unpredictable.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors can influence the price of Bitcoin?

Bitcoin prices can be influenced by a range of factors, including investor sentiment, regulatory developments, monetary policy and broader financial-market conditions. Cryptocurrency markets can react quickly to changes in expectations, news and economic data, contributing to periods of significant price volatility.

How can regulation affect cryptocurrency markets?

Changes in cryptocurrency regulation can influence how digital assets are traded, held and used. Greater regulatory clarity may affect market participation and investor confidence, while uncertainty around future rules can contribute to volatility. Developments in major markets such as the United States can therefore have wider implications for cryptocurrency markets.

How do interest rates affect Bitcoin?

Bitcoin does not pay interest or generate a yield. As a result, changes in interest rates can affect its relative attractiveness compared with interest-bearing assets. Lower interest rates can reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, while higher rates may increase the appeal of cash and fixed-income investments.

Why is Bitcoin considered a volatile asset?

Bitcoin has historically experienced large and sometimes rapid price movements. Its price can respond to changes in market sentiment, regulation, economic conditions and cryptocurrency-specific developments. This means both upward and downward movements can occur over relatively short periods.

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The forces shaping crypto’s next move

Last updated: 7th September 2026 | Author: Harry Halewood

Summary

﻿ « The bitcoin options market is currently made up of open positions totalling over $25bn. (8) »

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors can influence the price of Bitcoin?

How can regulation affect cryptocurrency markets?

How do interest rates affect Bitcoin?

Why is Bitcoin considered a volatile asset?

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« The bitcoin options market is currently made up of open positions totalling over $25bn. (8) »