Published Date: Gennaio 6, 2025
Author: HANetf
Russia ramps up defence spending – Russian President Vladamir Putin has approved a record-breaking defence budget, setting aside one-third of the government’s total spending in defence as the war versus Ukraine goes into its third year. The budget for 2025, which was just published, allocates about $126 billion (13.5 trillion rubles) to national defence, equating to 32.5% of government spending. Russia is racing ahead of NATO in terms of weapon production for the Russia-Ukraine war despite a NATO defence budget that is also continues to rise. With a record 23 out of 32 NATO members now meeting the 2% of GDP target, the NATO target percentage is likely to be increased to keep pace with Russia.
EU nears deal on €1.5 billion fund to boost its defence industry – EU member states are nearing a deal on a new €1.5 billion ($1.6 billion) defence fund to help bolster the industry in the bloc and Ukraine over the next three years. An agreement on the European Defence Investment Program is likely by the end of the year and would allow purchases of military equipment consisting of up to 35% of components from outside the EU. The EU is also trying to shift from its current practice of buying off-the-shelf equipment from third countries as an emergency response to funding more collaborative investments and joint procurement.
Europe a key driver of global defence spending growth – Europe has become a key driver of global defence-spending growth, with annual increases across the region as a whole averaging 3.9% in real terms since 2014. The primary focus of increased funding has been on modernisation and recapitalisation. The average portion of defence budgets allocated to procurement and R&D by European NATO members has now increased to 32% in 2024, up from 15% a decade ago, which was well below the NATO recommendation of 20%. European defence companies are benefiting from the increase in demand and renewed competition across countries. Companies such as BAE Systems, Leonardo, Rheinmetall, and Saab have been share price beneficiaries and M&A activity in the sector has resurged such as HENSOLDT’s acquisition of system integrator ESG in April and Fincantieri’s purchase of Leonardo’s underwater-weapons business in May. Partnerships at the government and industry level are also materialising such as the Trinity House agreement between Germany and the UK, signed in London on 23 October 2024, which promises increased armed forces and defence-industrial cooperation between the two largest spenders in Europe. At the industry level, the Leonardo and Rheinmetall fifty–fifty joint venture, named Leonardo Rheinmetall Military Vehicles, was formally established in October 2024. Increased investment is also enabling additional partnerships across the Atlantic; for example, the collaboration agreement between Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin signed in June 2024.
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Is Europe on its own? – Will a Trump Presidency accelerate efforts for more European sovereignty? On the campaign trail, Trump indicated he would remain in the alliance as long as European countries “play fair” and stop taking “advantage” of US defence spending. While it seems unlikely that Trump will pull the US out of NATO entirely, especially given the opportunities for large US defence contracts, it could remove the US from the military command as France did in 1966. Trump has promised to end Russia’s war on Ukraine within twenty-four hours. Many in Europe fear he could strike a deal with the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, at the expense of Ukraine or at least that he could scale back America’s support for Kyiv. Given all these considerations, could the outcome of the US election accelerate the drive for more EU autonomy and unity? Many experts remain sceptical. It is one thing to talk about strategic autonomy in an aspirational sense, but quite another to operationalize it. This involves rebuilding European defence capability in a way that could take many years. Cyber spending to hit $212 billion in 2025 amid AI threats – The cyber security landscape is set to face significant challenges in 2025, with predictions of escalating cyber threats driven by advanced technologies and increased vulnerabilities. Gartner has projected that global end-user spending on information security will reach USD $212 billion in 2025, marking a 15.1% rise compared to the previous year. Imperva, a cyber security company, has identified several key trends anticipated to influence the security sector including AI-enhanced threats to the risks posed by APIs.
European defence stocks face uncertainty amid Trump’s government efficiency plans – Donald Trump’s plans to create a Department of Government Efficiency has increased uncertainty for European defence companies heavily reliant on U.S. funding. DOGE is weighing on the valuations of European defence companies that rely heavily on U.S. contracts, such as the London-listed BAE Systems and QinetiQ. BAE Systems made 42% of sales in the U.S. last year, its biggest market ahead of the U.K. and Saudi Arabia. In the case of QinetiQ, the U.S. accounted for the 21% of revenue in fiscal 2024. Overall Trump’s return to the White House has been seen as a positive for European defence companies, as the president-elect is expected to put pressure on the rest of NATO members to boost their national defence budgets above their current commitment to spend at least 2% of GDP.
Musk comments shoot down F-35 defence stocks and a mixed bag for defence – Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, co-head of President-elect Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, ridiculed F-35 fighter jets on his social site X. The comments hit shares of Lockheed Martin (LMT) and key F-35 contractors Northrop Grumman (NOC) and RTX (RTX). Elon Musk, in a Sunday post, showed a video of drone swarms, writing, “Meanwhile, some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35.” Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned still expects defence stocks to do well under Trump. “We expect Trump to seek a strong defence as he did in his first term, even if he seeks to avoid involvement in overseas conflicts,” Harned wrote in a Nov. 25 report. But Callan warns that while the consensus view of a GDP victory being good for defence is prevalent, that view doesn’t consider the impact of higher levels of government debt, or retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump’s plan to increase import levies to boost domestic manufacturing. In addition, the role of Elon Musk in a Trump Administration could be a wild card for large U.S. primes and federal/defence services. Musk believes he could cut U.S. federal spending by trillions of dollars a year, some of that would likely come from defence.
Thales installing AI on TALIOS pod for Rafale – Thales is equipping its Thales TALIOS (Targeting Long-range Identification Optronic System) long-range airborne targeting pod with artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the Dassault Rafale combat aircraft. The French company announced the upgrade on 29 November, saying that automating airborne imagery analysis through the use of AI will provide “invaluable” assistance to Dessault’s Rafale pilots.
KAI’s developmental AI pilot to fly FA-50 – Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) plans to test its artificial intelligence pilot in the FA-50 light combat aircraft as a step to future unmanned aircraft. The company’s AI effort is named “K-AI Pilot” and will see it use the FA-50 airframe to explore autonomous flight capabilities by 2026. Following this, the focus will move to “semi-autonomous” formation flying and combat manoeuvring, according to South Korea’s defence ministry, citing a presentation by KAI’s AI research head, Lim Seong-shin.
Palantir stock skyrockets in November on strong results and move to NASDAQ – Palantir stock soared more than 45% in November after posting strong November 4th earnings results. The company’s “unbridled demand” for its recently released Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) proved effective in an otherwise choppy software demand environment. Wedbush analysts cited Palantir’s latest update as a “game changer quarter” with AIP monetization as a “major growth driver”. Additionally, Palantir has also emerged as a “Trump trade”, driven by the expectations that a Republican administration led by Donald Trump would translate to higher federal spending in areas where Palantir operates and due to its friendly relationship with founder Peter Thiel. The US government is currently Palantir’s largest client. On November 14th the company also said it would be moving to the NASDAQ making it eligible for inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 QQQ’s.
Trump’s election has created both opportunity and uncertainty for the defence sector. On the one hand, high levels of defence spending are expected to continue, especially in Europe it increases its sovereignty and work together more collaboratively as part of a NATO trying to catch up on defence spending and replenish and modernise its equipment. Trump will also be under pressure to retain large US defence contracts. But Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and the prospect of trade tariffs, along with a decreased level of US NATO involvement, has heightened the environment of uncertainty as well. While there is some uncertainty in the details, defence budgets continue to grow to record levels and defence companies are reaping record earnings results and order backlogs after years of spending neglect. Technology spending on AI, drones, and cyber defence will be key beneficiaries in an era embracing modern defence solutions as a method to increase scale and efficiency and reduce cost.
NATO (Fund)NATONTR (Index)1M-4.22%-4.20%3M2.19%2.32%6M9.28%9.51%YTD12.64%13.00%12M5.47%5.90%3Y169.33%173.43%Since Inception (03/07/2023)167.11%171.37%
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