Cat Bond Quarterly Report | July 2026

CATB ETF Manager Review

Executive Summary

CATB EUR delivered strong absolute and relative performance in Q2 2026, generating a +3.54% quarterly return and +5.45% year-to-date return. Since inception, the fund has produced a +6.25% total return, equivalent to a +10.11% annualised return.

Performance was achieved against a constructive but more fully valued cat bond market backdrop. Record issuance was absorbed by strong institutional demand, while secondary market spreads widened modestly by 23 basis points as seasonal hurricane risk approached. CATB EUR also outperformed the selected UCITS peer group over the comparison period, delivering a +7.41% total return and +12.24% annualised return.[1]

Market in review

The catastrophe bond market posted record issuance in Q2 2026, with more than $11.3 billion placed across 48 transactions — the largest quarterly total on record. First-half issuance reached approximately $18.0 billion, exceeding the prior H1 record set in 2025.

Total cat bond market outstanding increased to a new high of $65.6 billion at quarter-end.[2]

Market conditions and pricing

Investor demand remained robust throughout the quarter. Approximately 86% of tranches priced below the midpoint of initial guidance, while average pricing multiples declined to 2.53x, the lowest level since 2021. The market absorbed record supply with limited concession.

Secondary market insurance risk spreads widened modestly during Q2, from 5.48% at quarter start to 5.71% by late June – 23 basis point increase reflecting normal seasonal patterns as Atlantic hurricane season approached. However, this widening was notably muted compared to historical seasonal patterns, contained by record investor demand and favorable market technicals.[3]

Q2 2026 Spread Movement (Plenum Data)
MetricValue  
Q2 Start Spread (01 April) 5.48%
Q2 End Spread (30 June) 5.71%
Spread Change 0.23%23bps
Source: Plenum Investments via Artemis.bm. Data as of 30.06.2026

Key factors pertaining to spread widening

  • Record capital inflows: Global reinsurance capital reached $790 billion as of Q1 2026.[4]
  • Institutional investor appetite: Pension funds continue building permanent ILS allocations as a diversifying asset class
  • Benign loss experience: H1 2026 natural catastrophe losses totalled $111 billion through mid-June, which was 25% below the long-term mean since 2000.[5]
  • Favourable seasonal outlook: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its first below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecast since 2015.[6]

Performance Overview

Despite the 23 basis point widening in insurance risk spreads during Q2 (5.48% → 5.71%), CATB EUR delivered strong quarterly performance of +3.54%. This result demonstrates the fund’s ability to generate positive returns through coupon income and favourable positioning, even during periods of modest spread pressure. The fund’s outperformance versus peers reflects disciplined security selection and portfolio construction.[7]

Past performance is not indicative of future performance and when you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk.

 Macro Outlook

The cat bond market is entering peak Atlantic hurricane season with record capital levels. Meaning there are a number of key considerations:

  1. Seasonal spread patterns intact: The 23 bps Q2 widening followed historical patterns, though magnitude was contained by strong demand
  2. Strong technical backdrop: Record institutional demand continues to support valuations amid softening fundamentals
  3. Favourable seasonal forecast: NOAA’s below-normal hurricane outlook provides near-term support, though long-term risk models remain unchanged

The CATB ETF remains well-positioned with strong relative performance versus UCITS peers and continues to benefit from robust market demand for cat bond exposure. The fund’s Q2 performance demonstrates resilience during seasonal spread widening periods.

Cat Bond ETF Portfolio Statistics
As of 30/06/2026

Average Coupon11.50%
Average Yield9.25%
Spread5.89%
Expected Loss (EL) %2.73%

 

EL bands<=1%1-2%2-3%3-4%4-5%5-6%>=6%
% of Total19.8%23.6%12.1%13.5%12.2%10.3%4.2%

Source: Bloomberg, King Ridge Capital. Data as of 30.06.2026. All portfolio metrics and performance figures are shown on a net basis. Coupon and EL figures are sourced from the underlying 144A documents for each constituent of the Fund. Yield and spread figures reflect a blended pricing assessment from Bloomberg, Swiss Re and other third-party brokers. Both coupon and yield figures pertain to the characteristics of the portfolio and are not net performance. Stress testing outputs were produced using the Verisk catastrophe modelling platform.

Historical Events

Event NameIndustry Insured Loss ($Billion)Fund Impact
1906 San Francisco CA EQ98.70-14.6%
1926 Great Miami HU194.38-15.3%
1960 Donna HU92.41-7.3%
1928 Okeechobee HU120.81-4.3%
1938 Great New England HU91.690.8%
1992 Andrew HU154.195.6%
1994 Northridge-Los Angeles EQ26.340.2%
1999 Lothar Euro Windstorm18.897.8%
2005 Katrina HU118.944.8%
2010 Maule Chile EQ22.887.9%
2011 Tohoku Japan EQ16.487.6%
2017 Harvey, Irma and Maria HU79.743.9%
2017 US Wildfires (Tubbs, Atlas, Thomas)12.699.8%
2022 Ian HU48.009.8%
2025 US Wildfires (Palisades, Eaton)34.009.8%

 

Source: King Ridge Capital, Bloomberg. Data as of 30.06.2026. Table shows simulated past performance, based on past historical events. Simulated past performance is in no way reflective of real performance or any future performance. Data contained within the table is not back tested data. Table is included for illustrative purposes only.

Key risks

  • The Sub-Fund’s assets will be actively managed by the investment manager who will have discretion to invest assets to achieve the investment objective. There is no guarantee that the Sub-Fund’s investment objective will be achieved based on the investments selected.
  • High-yield fixed-income securities are subject to additional risk factors, such as increased possibility of default, illiquidity of the security, and changes in value based on public perception of the issuer.
  • The Sub-Fund is subject to the risk that a Trigger Event of a particular size/magnitude actually occurs in a designated geographic area and as a result, the Sub-Fund will lose all or a significant portion of the principal it has invested in a particular security and the right to additional interest payments with respect to the security. If multiple Trigger Events occur that impact a significant portion of the SubFund’s portfolio, the Sub-Fund could suffer significant losses
  • Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
  • When you invest in ETFs your capital is fully at risk and may not get back the amount originally invested.
  • Exchange rates can have a positive or negative effect on returns.
  • The value of equities and equity-related securities can be affected by daily stock and currency market movements.
  • Please note this is not an exhaustive list of risks. Other risks may apply.
  • Further risks are disclosed in the KIID and Prospectus

[1] Source: King Ridge Capital, Bloomberg. Data as of 30.06.2026

[2] Ibid

[3] Ibid

[4] https://aon.mediaroom.com/news-releases?item=138607

[5] https://www.aon.com/getmedia/87b942cd-2658-456c-9269-f441b5ed4ddd/Global-Catastrophe-Report-2026_H1.pdf?_gl=1*1jj1ce9*_gcl_au*MjA2NDEzNjg5NC4xNzg0NzQ3Njcy*_ga*MTE1MjI0ODMyOC4xNzg0NzQ3Njcz*_ga_S2CXP61BY4*czE3ODQ3NDc2NzIkbzEkZzEkdDE3ODQ3NDc3NjUkajQ2JGwwJGgw

[6] https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season

[7] Source: King Ridge Capital, Bloomberg. Data as of 30.06.2026

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