Published Date: September 25, 2026
Author: HANetf
Copper reached record highs as weak mine supply, especially from Chile, and tariff-driven inventory imbalances tightened availability. At the same time, growing demand from energy, advanced technology and defence strengthened the market’s long-term outlook.
August was a significant month for physical copper and copper mining equities. The LME copper spot price advanced +4.41%, bringing its year-to-date gain to +6.00%,[1] while mining equities delivered considerably greater upside. Copper miners surged +17.11% in August and reached a +30.51% year-to-date return.[2] Junior copper miners led the sector with a +20.76% gain in August, bringing their year-to-date return to +21.90%.[3] The strength of mining equities reflected their leverage to higher copper prices, with August’s rally driven by powerful margin expansion for existing producers and the growing strategic value of future copper supply.
Copper’s rally began more than a year ago and has been fuelled by increasingly tight mine supply. Disruptions at Grasberg in Indonesia, operated by Freeport-McMoRan, and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, operated by Ivanhoe Mines, pushed the market further into deficit last year. Global mine production has continued to disappoint in 2026. Despite multiple record prices in the first half of the year and strong financial incentives to increase output, mined copper production fell -1.1% year over year.[4]
Chile was a major source of the copper supply shortfall, with production down -6.6%. Lower output at several major mines reflected both operational setbacks and persistent challenges at aging mines. These supply constraints leave the global market less able to absorb further disruptions as demand from electricity grids, AI data centres and defence programs continues to grow.
Refined copper supplies also tightened outside the United States as the prospect of U.S. tariffs prompted traders to shift substantial volumes into American warehouses. These shipments were driven by financial incentives, concentrating inventories in the U.S. rather than where copper was needed for consumption. With mine supply already constrained, the shift left less copper available in LME warehouses and China to meet regional shortfalls.
The strain came to a head on the day copper reached its August record high, when immediately available LME copper commanded a $545 per metric ton premium over copper deliverable three months later, the widest backwardation since 2021.[5] Backwardation generally signals tight near-term supply because buyers are willing to pay more to secure metal immediately.
Looking at longer-term performance, copper (+51.61%) and copper miners (+158.27%) have outpaced broader commodities (+47.28%) and equities (+82.54%) over the past five years. [6] [7]
The copper market entered 2026 with limited capacity to absorb further supply disappointments. The disruptions at the Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula copper mines in 2025 removed an estimated 600,000 metric tons of expected 2026 production, representing approximately 2.5% of the annual global mined copper supply.[8] This added to the challenges for the copper market, which is facing modest growth from existing operations and a limited pipeline of new projects. Global mine production fell -1.1% in the first half of 2026, raising the possibility that annual copper output could register its first decline since 2017.[9]
Chile remains a major source of weakness in copper supply. As the world’s largest producer, accounting for 23% of global mine output in 2025, Chile has an outsized influence on the market’s supply-demand balance.[10] Chilean production fell -9.4% year over year in July, following a -6.6% decline in the first half of 2026, extending a multiyear pattern of output falling short of expectations.[11] [12]In an August update, the Chilean Copper Commission, known as Cochilco, lowered its 2026 production outlook to 5.27 million metric tons, representing a decline from 2025.[13]
Codelco’s persistent shortfalls underscore the challenge. The state-owned company, the world’s second-largest copper miner, has missed its production targets for seven consecutive years. In April 2026, Codelco targeted production of 1.34 MMT from its operations for the year as it pursued a broader ambition to restore production to 1.7 MMT by the end of the decade. By August, less than four months later, the company had withdrawn its 2026 production target amid setbacks and effectively abandoned its longer-term 1.7 MMT growth target.[14] After losing its position as the world’s largest copper producer to BHP in 2025,[15] Codelco is now focused on stabilising production around current levels.
Chile’s production challenges broadened further in August as Antofagasta plc and Lundin Mining both lowered their 2026 copper production guidance. [16] [17] Together, the revisions removed 35,000 to 55,000 metric tons from their combined outlook, adding to the mounting supply disappointments from the world’s largest copper-producing country. The reductions carry greater significance in a market already in deficit.
Escondida, the BHP-operated mine in Chile and the world’s largest copper mine, faces similar pressures. Despite record mining and processing rates in FY2026, declining ore grades are expected to reduce FY2027 production by approximately 210,000 metric tons at the midpoint of BHP’s guidance, equivalent to nearly 1% of the annual global mined copper supply.[18] The projected decline underscores how geological constraints can limit output even at the industry’s largest and most advanced operations.
The widening gap between copper prices and Chilean production highlights how slowly mine supply responds to higher prices. From 2000 to 2025, copper prices rose nearly sevenfold, while Chilean mine output increased just +15%.[19] Declining ore grades, ageing operations, capital constraints and increasingly complex project requirements have limited production growth. Higher prices can boost existing mines’ profitability, but expanding supply requires sustained investment, effective execution and successful development of new projects.
As Chile struggles to expand output, the market increasingly depends on growth from countries with greater geopolitical and operational risks, particularly the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), China and Russia. The DRC is expected to contribute the largest increase in global mine supply in 2026, following continued production growth in the first half of the year. However, much of its output relies on imported sulfuric acid, leaving it exposed to disruptions in acid and sulphur supplies. The Persian Gulf accounts for approximately 25% of global sulphur production and 45% of seaborne sulphur trade.[20] Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with China’s suspension of sulfuric acid exports, could therefore constrain acid availability. DRC output has remained resilient, but supply risks may increase as existing inventories and contracted deliveries are depleted.
Record copper shipments into the U.S. intensified an already constrained global market in August. U.S. copper cathode imports reached a record 223,000 metric tons in July, compared with a typical July range of 37,000 to 80,000 metric tons in the years before 2024.[21] The dramatic increase was driven by traders moving copper into the U.S. to capture elevated U.S. prices and acquire metal ahead of a potential tariff on refined copper. As those shipments accelerated, COMEX inventories rose +712% from February 2025 to August 2026, while inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell, squeezing copper supply across the rest of the world.[22]
The tariff trade began in February 2025, when the Trump administration launched a national-security investigation into copper imports. Expectations that a proposed 50% tariff would include refined copper prompted traders to rush metal into the U.S., pushing COMEX copper to a premium of more than 30% over the LME. However, when finalised in July, the tariff covered only semi-finished copper products and certain copper-intensive manufactured goods. Refined copper was excluded, triggering a sharp COMEX sell-off and returning the premium toward its historical near-parity level. Commerce also recommended phased tariffs on refined copper of 15% from January 1, 2027, and 30% from January 1, 2028, subject to a presidential decision.[23]
The trade regained momentum in 2026 as the proposed implementation date approached, with no final decision. The COMEX premium again widened, exceeding 5% in August. Tariff expectations, along with support from strong underlying fundamentals, added to price vulnerability to policy headlines. On September 10, after the reporting period, copper fell more than -4% following reports that the White House had delayed its decision. Mining equities also sold off sharply as some of the tariff premium unwound.
The reported delay was attributed to affordability concerns ahead of the November midterm elections, but it did not resolve the question of whether tariffs would ultimately be imposed. In our view, that uncertainty preserves an incentive to hold copper in the U.S., retaining the potential value of its location and avoiding the cost of moving it elsewhere.
An advance tariff announcement could intensify the squeeze as traders and industrial buyers accelerate shipments before duties take effect. A definitive decision against tariffs would likely unwind part of the trade, releasing some U.S.-held copper to international markets. Until then, tariff expectations are likely to remain an important influence on copper prices and global inventories.
In our view the copper market will likely remain sensitive to evidence that recent supply pressures are easing. Chile’s anticipated production recovery requires improved performance across several major operations following a prolonged period of missed expectations. At the same time, growth from the Democratic Republic of Congo remains important to the global balance. Sulfuric acid availability warrants attention as existing inventories and procurement contracts are drawn down. U.S. tariff policy will provide another source of volatility, the direction of US policy is unresolved. The Section 232 determination on refined copper remains outstanding, and a resolution could influence the COMEX-LME premium, the location of global inventories and copper’s availability outside the U.S. It is also important to note that commodity prices and mining equity earnings are cyclical and have fallen sharply in previous cycles.[24]
Demand is also becoming more closely tied to strategic priorities. Electricity grids, copper’s largest end-use market, are gaining urgency as governments place greater emphasis on energy security. The war in Iran and disruption through the Strait of Hormuz have demonstrated the vulnerability of systems dependent on internationally traded fossil fuels. Countries directly reliant on disrupted routes can face physical shortages, while others remain exposed to global price shocks. Investment in domestic generation, diversified energy systems and expanded electricity networks offer a way to reduce that exposure, with copper serving as a critical input throughout the grid.
AI data centres and defence programs add smaller but rapidly growing sources of consumption. Data centre expansion requires significant investment in power generation, grid connections, electrical equipment, cabling and cooling infrastructure. Copper generally represents a small portion of the total cost of these systems, making procurement relatively insensitive to copper prices when the underlying investment is tied to national security, system reliability or computing capacity. This enables strategic consumers to continue securing metal even at elevated prices.
The contrast between strategic demand and a slow mine supply response is translating into exceptional producer economics. The copper price increased +47.08% over the 12 months through August, driving AISC margins to unprecedented levels. Copper concentrate scarcity has added to this strength, reversing the traditional relationship in which miners paid smelters treatment and refining charges, and shifting greater value toward the miner. These margins do not require another immediate increase in copper prices to remain favourable, as sustained prices near current levels may allow producers to realise significantly stronger year-over-year earnings and free cash flow across a full reporting period. It should be noted that producers do face labour and energy cost inflation, declining ore grades, and the sulphuric acid constraint (described above) is a cost input and supply risk, which may influence production.
A strong investment environment may encourage brownfield expansions, project partnerships and acquisition activity, but the physical supply response will remain gradual. Copper projects take an average of approximately 17.5 years to advance from discovery to production, and the volume of copper discovered since 2000 remains below the total discovered during the 1990s alone.[25] Higher prices improve project economics, but they cannot compress every stage of development or quickly replenish the discovery pipeline.
We believe pure-play copper miners may offer the clearest exposure to this environment. Only three of the world’s 10 largest copper producers are publicly traded pure-play copper companies, leaving the benefits of higher copper prices diluted across the broader commodity portfolios of diversified miners.[26] Pure-play producers provide more direct participation in copper’s operational leverage and margin expansion and, therefore, we believe are best positioned in this environment.
CPPR (Fund)NSCOPEN (Index)1M16.91%16.91%3M5.22%5.30%6M-0.11%0.00%YTD25.17%25.35%12M86.03%84.43%3Y-184.63%Since Inception (06/12/2023)221.05%218.74%
Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31.08.2026. Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs and ETCs, your capital is at risk.
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The content in this document is issued by HANetf Limited (“HANetf”) and approved by Privium Fund Management (UK) Limited (“Privium”). HANetf is an appointed representative of Privium, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The registered office of Privium is The Shard, 24th Floor, 32 London Bridge Street, London, SE1 9SG
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[1] The copper spot price is measured by the LME Copper Cash ($), Bloomberg ticker LMCADY
[2] The Nasdaq Sprott Copper Miners™ Index (NSCOPP™) is designed to track the performance of a selection of global securities in the copper industry; the Index was co-developed by Nasdaq® and Sprott Asset Management LP.
[3] Nasdaq Sprott Junior Copper Miners™ Index (NSCOPJ™) is designed to track the performance of mid-, small- and micro-cap companies in copper-mining related businesses; the Index was co-developed by Nasdaq® and Sprott Asset Management LP.
[4] https://icsg.org/download/2026-08-21-monthly-press-release/?wpdmdl=9328&refresh=6aa314d3181161789072595
[5] https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/lme-gripped-by-flash-squeeze-copper-tensions-boil-over-2026-08-19/
[6] Commodities are measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Data as of 31.08.2026. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
[7] Broader Equities are measured by the S&P 500 TR Index. Data as of 31.08.2026. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
[8] Source: Sprott Asset Management’s global aggregation estimate. Data as of 31.08.2026
[9] https://www.mining.com/web/copper-at-risk-of-rare-supply-decline-as-mine-setbacks-mount/
[10] Source: USGS: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Copper.
[11] https://www.mining.com/web/copper-output-from-chiles-codelco-dips-in-july/
[12] https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/2026/09/16/1211579/recesion-del-cobre-quiroz.html
[13] https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/chiles-copper-output-to-fall-26-in-2026-says-cochilco-93CH-4825070
[14]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-12/codelco-abandons-copper-growth-target-as-mine-setbacks-mount
[15] S&P Capital IQ
[16] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/antofagasta-first-half-earnings-rise-higher-copper-prices-offset-output-decline-2026-08-13/
[17] https://www.mining.com/lundin-mining-cuts-copper-outlook-as-chile-storms-strike-again/
[18] https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/media/reports-and-presentations/2026/260716_bhpoperationalreviewfortheyearended30june2026.pdf
[19] https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/copper-statistics-and-information
[20] https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103989791-smm-analysis-h1-2026-sulfur-industry-chain-review-extreme-volatility-under-supply-shocks
[21] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/us-monthly-copper-cathode-imports-hit-all-time-high-albert-mackenzie-khnde/
[22] Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31.08.2026
[23] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/adjusting-imports-of-copper-into-the-united-states/
[24] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper
[25] S&P Global, “Copper discoveries 2026 – Expansion over addition as new discoveries lag”, 27.08.2026.
[26] S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg and company financial statements
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Uranium Miners ETF Report | Mar 2024
Decarbonisation Enablers ETF Report | Mar 2024
Crypto Report | Mar 2024
Metaverse ETF Report | March 2024
Global Equity Shariah ETF Screened Report | Mar 2024
ESG Gold Mining ETF Report | Mar 2024
ESG Gold Mining ETF Report | Feb 2024
February 2024
Energy Transition Materials ETF Report | Feb 2024
Global Equity Active Shariah ETF Screened Report | Feb 2024
Decarbonisation Enablers ETF Report | Feb 2024
EV Charging Infrastructure ETF Report | Feb 2024
Midstream Energy ETF Report | Feb 2024
Uranium Miners ETF Report | Feb 2024
Future of Defence ETF Report | Feb 2024
Crypto Report | Feb 2024
Cloud Technology ETF Report | Feb 2024
Digital Assets Report | Feb 2024
Tech Megatrend ETF Report | Feb 2024
Airlines ETF Report | Feb 2024
Monthly Global Equity Active Shariah Screened Report | January 2024
January 2024
Monthly Decarbonisation Enablers Report | January 2024
Emerging Markets ETF Monthly Report | January
Digital Infrastructure ETF Monthly Report | January
EV Charging Infrastructure ETF Monthly Report | January
Crypto Monthly Report | January
Islamic Equity Monthly Report | December
December 2023
Midstream Energy Monthly Report | December
Airlines ETF Monthly Report | December
Future of Defence ETF Monthly Report | December
ESG-Screened Gold Miners ETF Monthly Report | December
Emerging Markets ETF Monthly Report | November
November 2023
Energy Transition Materials ETF | Monthly Report
Future of Defence ETF Monthly Report | November
Midstream Energy ETF Monthly Report | November
Travel ETF Monthy Report | November
ESG Gold Mining ETF Monthly Report | November 2023
Future of Finance ETF Monthly Report | November
Shariah ETF Monthly Report | November
Airlines Monthly Report | November
Digital Infrastructure ETF Monthly Report | November
Crypto Monthly Report | November
Digital Assets Monthly Report | November
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