Published Date: April 30, 2025
Author: HANetf
Copper’s record-breaking rally in March 2025 and its abrupt reversal in early April underscore how the metal now sits at the crossroads of geopolitics, trade policy, and national security. The surge was initially catalyzed by the U.S.’s launch of a Section 232 investigation into copper imports, a rarely used legal mechanism designed to determine whether import levels threaten national security. Although the investigation is still pending, it triggered significant market expectations that copper could soon face tariffs, potentially at 25%, equal to the amounts recently imposed on steel and aluminum.
In response, U.S. consumers and traders quickly built inventories, driving a surge in demand that pushed COMEX copper futures to a record intraday high of $5.28/lb on March 26. Global copper flows were rerouted into the U.S. to capitalize on the growing price premium, creating a record-high 16% spread between U.S. and international copper prices. The rally wasn’t grounded in a sudden shift in the already strong fundamentals; it was policy-driven and centered mainly on fears of restricted supply in the near term.
At the same time, copper equities, as measured by the ESG Copper Miners ETF, rose by 3.42%. Gains were especially prominent among U.S.-listed junior and development-stage miners, significantly outperforming their global peers. Investors interpreted the Section 232 probe as a potential catalyst for reshoring supply chains and increasing government support for domestic mining. These expectations were reinforced on March 20, when President Trump signed an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act (DPA) to fast-track the development of critical minerals, with copper featured prominently. The order included multiple prongs: expediting mine permitting, boosting American mineral production and financing, loans and investment support for new mineral production projects.
Amid these U.S.-driven developments, China was also active in supporting copper demand, adding another layer to the rally. Chinese authorities leaned into stimulus measures, including infrastructure and property-sector support, which boosted sentiment for industrial metals. Additionally, the government revealed plans to expand strategic reserves of key industrial metals, including copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt. While U.S. trade policy introduced upside volatility through supply fears, China’s moves reflected more traditional demand-side support, highlighting the dual role of policy in shaping copper markets.
On April 2, President Trump unveiled a broader “reciprocal tariffs” initiative targeting countries around the world. Although copper was excluded from the new tariffs, markets interpreted the announcement as a shift toward broader protectionism and global economic fragmentation. Risk sentiment deteriorated sharply. Equities, commodities, and copper-related assets sold off. Investors reassessed the likelihood of global retaliation, weaker trade flows, and slower economic growth, all of which could weigh on industrial metals demand in the near term. The market had priced in a supply crunch, but what followed instead was a wave of de-risking amid heightened policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
For investors, the evolving policy landscape underscores a broader truth: copper is no longer just a cyclical industrial metal—it’s becoming a strategic asset class. The volatility seen in March and April reflects the growing stakes around copper’s role in clean energy, national defense, and global competitiveness. While these policy shifts can create short-term dislocations, they also open the door to long-term structural upside. The Section 232 investigation, rising domestic support through the Defense Production Act, and strategic stockpiling by China all point to a world where copper supply chains are no longer taken for granted. As volatility shakes out weak hands, long-term investors may find compelling entry points in an asset poised to benefit from both rising demand and increasing strategic value. The copper bull case remains intact, and arguably stronger, thanks to the very forces that created this latest round of turbulence.
Looking ahead, copper’s macro outlook remains constructive. At the heart of the long-term bull case is a persistent structural deficit. Global demand for copper continues to grow due to the accelerating energy transition and AI data centers, ongoing upgrades to aging electrical grids, and the urbanization and industrialization of developing economies. At the same time, the supply side remains constrained. The copper industry faces a host of challenges, including declining ore grades, limited new discoveries, and permitting delays. These structural issues have made it difficult for global production to keep pace with demand, contributing to elevated long-term price expectations.
However, recent developments highlight the increasing influence of trade policy and geopolitics on copper markets. The United States’ return to tariff-based trade measures has important implications. First, it raises concerns about global trade fragmentation, which could affect copper supply chains and create regional pricing differences. Second, it introduces a new layer of uncertainty for industrial buyers, who may be forced to rethink sourcing strategies and inventory management in the face of potential trade disruptions.
The broader macro environment is also becoming more volatile. The sharp market reaction to Trump’s tariff announcement reflects investor anxiety about a return to protectionism. Higher tariffs could stoke inflationary pressures at a time when central banks are already grappling with slowing growth and sticky prices. This could delay interest rate cuts, and weigh on risk assets.
Still, it’s important to differentiate between short-term market noise and long-term fundamentals. Copper’s role as a strategic input for future technologies makes it an increasingly important commodity. We are likely to see more state-driven activity in copper markets going forward, whether through stockpiling, subsidies, or direct investments in mining and refining capacity.
As copper transitions from a cyclical industrial metal to a strategically positioned resource, investors stand to benefit from the tailwinds of electrification, constrained global supply, and intensifying geopolitical focus. Policy volatility may continue to drive short-term swings, but the long-term trajectory remains aligned with global priorities. For investors with a sufficient time horizon, copper offers a rare combination of structural demand growth, supply discipline, and increasing strategic relevance, factors that we believe could support a sustained bull market in the years ahead.
Source of all performance data: HANetf; Bloomberg. Data as of 31.03.2025. Past performance is not indicative of future performance and when you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk. Additional sources available on request.
CPPR (Fund)NSCOPEN (Index)1M16.91%16.91%3M5.22%5.30%6M-0.11%0.00%YTD25.17%25.35%12M86.03%84.43%3Y-184.63%Since Inception (06/12/2023)221.05%218.74%
Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31.08.2026
Performance before inception is based on back-tested data. Backtesting is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such a strategy would have been. Back-tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk.
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