Published Date: September 26, 2024
Author: HANetf
European defence companies prosper as military budgets increase – The biggest European defence and aerospace companies are experiencing record order and cash flow levels, as new weapon orders from governments soar. The uptick in orders has been fuelled by escalating geopolitical uncertainties, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict. Government military budgets have been increasing, which has meant more orders for defence contractors. The EU Defence Agency has set aside a budget of over €48,000m which is benefiting companies like German firm Rheinmetall, British BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Sweden’s Saab.
Poland leading the charge – More than half of NATO allies are set to spend more than 2% of GDP on defence this year with a record number of 23 out of 32 members. Poland is the front-runner and becoming a leading voice for defence in Europe. Poland, a NATO member since 1999, has allocated 4% of their GDP to defence spending this year, with only four other countries – the US, Germany, UK, and France – spending more in absolute terms. Poland is set to spend 51% of its defence budget on equipment this year, versus NATO’s 20% target amount, an achievement makes Poland Europe’s fastest-growing military power. In August, Warsaw bought 96 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters from the US for $12bn (€13.3bn), meant to replace the country’s post-Soviet Mi-24 helicopters. In 2022, Poland ordered 1,000 K2 tanks from South Korean military equipment provider Hyundai Rotem. One major reason Poland has looked for new equipment outside Europe is simple supply-and-demand dynamics, as Europe’s defence industry could not fulfil Poland’s orders.
Finland plans to spend more on defence – Finland ruling centre-right coalition plans to spend more on NATO membership, defence and security in 2025, while scaling back on social programs amid an economic recession spurred by higher interest rates and economic fallout from neighbouring country Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finland’s defence spending will increase by 488 million euros to 6.5 billion mainly due to the acquisition of a new fighter jet fleet. Expenditure stemming from Finland’s membership in NATO, which it joined last year, will also increase by 67 million euros from this year.
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Faced with the reality of growing aggression around the world, NATO countries, particularly those in Europe who have underinvested in defence for years, will be ramping up military spending to catch up and restore depleted military stocks. All of this is benefiting defence companies such as Thales, BAE Systems, Saab, and Rheinmetall in Europe and US contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, and RTX. Total military expenditures rose to a record $2.4 trillion in 2023, and this year is on track for more record spending levels.
Military spending in Central and Western Europe is now higher than the last year of the Cold War, but EU nations have only just begun to consider what 21st-century security will require with an aggressive Russia on their eastern borders, rising volatility in the Middle East, and the expansion of the Chinese military threat. While 2% targets have largely been met, officials focused on security concerns say that military budgets may need to emulate Cold War spending levels of as high as 4% to deliver on NATO’s plans. If the US and its Group of Seven allies were to reach these spending levels, it would equate to more than $10 trillion of additional commitments over the next decade according to Bloomberg Economics. The post-Cold War ‘peace dividend’ era is coming to an end and that is likely to have a transformative effect on defence companies, fiscal spending, and financial markets.
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