Future of Defence Report | September 2026

Defence ETF, European Defence ETF, and Indo-Pacific Defence ETF – Key Takeaways

Financing Europe’s Defence Surge – European countries need to raise an additional €1 trillion to meet their NATO commitment to raise core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 and an additional 1.5% for defence-related infrastructure and resilience.  While some European countries are racing ahead, many are falling behind due to national fiscal constraints. According to NATO estimates for 2026, Poland and the three Baltic states have already reached, or are close to, 5% of GDP on core defence expenditure alone. The four Nordic allies and Greece are above or approaching the 3.5% core military spending target. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has announced plans to achieve that goal by 2029 through an unprecedented surge in defence expenditure, funded by a special national borrowing programme. But some highly indebted European allies, notably the UK, France, Italy and Spain, are struggling and lack the leeway to increase national borrowing or raise taxes significantly. Slashing welfare or pension spending is not politically feasible. Spain has a healthier economic growth rate, but its government rejects the NATO target.  What are some potential solutions?

1) Increased funding for joint procurement in the EU Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF),

2) Defence financing via the European Investment Bank which has a AAA credit rating,

3) Raising money through a dedicated defence bank.[1]

 

Political Risk Weighs on German Defence Stocks – The German defence group is under pressure as investors weigh recent pullbacks and strong first-half earnings against rising political risks at home. First half results were strong as demonstrated by Rheinmetall’s +39% increase in sales and +74% rise in profits.  Financial momentum was especially strong in the second quarter as defence companies are shifting from order books to booked orders. Shares were also looking attractive due to lower valuations after a first quarter correction. But investors are reassessing political risk after a strong showing by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.  The growing appeal of a party that is anti-immigration, sympathetic to Russia, seeks to leave the EU and is sceptical of industrial policy carries ​significant long-term risks for Europe’s largest economy. Waning support for Merz’s CDU party big spending defence policies are seen as a risk for German defence companies amid elevated order backlogs and ongoing rearmament programs. But corporate Germany also needs to reform, not just fiscal spending. Slow permitting, high energy costs, labour shortages, aging infrastructure and weakening competitiveness have all complicated long-term investment decisions.[2] [3] [4]

Defence Officials Resist EU Plan to Curb Reliance on US Tech Giants – A number of European officials are pushing back on NATO’s plan to cut its reliance on US tech, warning the move could leave Europe with inferior systems, increased cyber risk, and problems coordinating with other NATO allies. Security officials acknowledge their dependence on companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, represents a political vulnerability. The European Commission has proposed a new law that would bar the use of foreign technology in the most sensitive European systems. But EU defence officials and European defence contractors argue using inferior European technology puts the continent at greater risk, estimating that the US had an eight- to 10-year lead in cloud and AI defence platforms.  Defence officials and executives said they fear the rules could prevent militaries from using American hyperscalers for some of their most sensitive operations before European alternatives capable of replacing them become available.[5]

Monthly Stock Highlights

Palantir: Shares of Palantir gained +51% in August following its August 3 earnings release.  The company reported +93% YOY revenue growth reaching $1.94 billion for the quarter.  Management also boosted guidance for full year revenues to between $8.15 – $8.16 billion.[6]

Qualsys: Reported strong second-quarter earnings results on August 4th, driving a major surge in its share price, up +29% for the month. Momentum came from AI-driven security product launches like InstaScan, Risk Operations Centre adoption, and strong federal demand. The beat triggered several price target upgrades including hikes from Scotiabank, Jefferies, and RBC.[7]

Hanwha Aerospace: Recorded a share gain of +25% in August driven by several catalysts including a $260 million contract with the US Army for the Mobile Tactical Cannon program. The company also announced a deal to export K9 self-propelled howitzers to Spain. There was also a mass production announcement for the Arion-SMET unmanned ground vehicle.[8] [9] [10]

CACI International: Shares surged +25% in August, driven by strong Q4 earnings, major contract wins.  Key contract announcements included a $500 million SkyValor counter-drone IDIQ contract.[11]

Monthly stock detractors

However, there were some companies that detracted from overall performance. For instance, TransDgim, General Electric and Boeing all fell -5.45%, -4.85%, and -3.87% respectively.

American Future of Defence News

Major Escalation of Iran War Thwarted by Munition Stocks – The U.S. has put off a major escalation of its military campaign against Iran over the impact of declining munitions stocks. Operations were delayed in favour of diplomacy as officials discussed the effect a major attack could have on the U.S.’s shrinking stocks of Patriot and other air defence interceptors. Analysts outside the government have repeatedly cautioned that the large number of antimissile interceptors that have been used to intercept Iranian missile attacks could hamper the U.S.’s ability to deter adversaries around the globe, including China. Cancian and Park, who have updated their April assessment, estimate that at least 1,500 Patriot interceptors have been expended since the war with Iran began. That would leave a U.S. inventory of less than 1,000 Patriot interceptors.[12]

Lyntris’ IPO Sees Tepid Response – Defence-tech contractor Lyntris raised nearly $300 million in a downsized August 19th IPO at $17.50 a share, which was well below its original target. Investors were not pleased with the company’s $272 million debt load and growing losses. The company is a fast grower with a $924 million order backlog, but 97% of its revenue comes from government contracts, creating concentration risk. Lyntris faces an uphill battle competing with defence primes who have scale (see Scale Catch-22 Cycle in Charts in Focus) and is a good test case for riskier neo-prime company demand.  In addition, only 5.7 million of the 17 million shares sold were actually offered to the public. The remaining 11.3 million shares, valued at roughly $197.8 million, were sold and cashed out by the company’s private-equity partners. The cashing out by partners still raises scepticism among investors. The deal left Lyntris with $69.5 million in net proceeds, $60 million of which will be used to pay down its debt. Lyntris, manufactures battlefield sensors and designs software.  An abundance of recent defence-technology IPOs – Applied Aerospace & Defense (AADX), HawkEye 360 (HAWK), and Aevex (AVEX), and a general calming of the defence tech sector from its early 2026 highs, also created negative market sentiment for the IPO. Another defence tech IPO, First Breach, which manufactures vertically integrated small-grade ammunition, components, and next-generation unmanned aerial systems (drones) for commercial, law enforcement, and military markets, had a direct listing in mid-August which also experienced a poor debut and performance.[13]

Monthly Stock Highlights

Voyager Technologies: A rally in the shares of space defence stock Voyager (+37%) was triggered by strong Q2 results, featuring $52.7 million in revenue (up +51%) and a record order book of $113 million, driving higher management guidance.  Of the new orders in the second quarter, $84.3 million was related to U.S. “Golden Dome” missile defence projects. The company also completed its acquisition of Astrobotic which adds operational capabilities in areas such as lunar surface delivery, mobility platforms, infrastructure construction, autonomous systems, and advanced robotics. The company expects Astrobotic to contribute approximately $40 million to $50 million in revenue during the remainder of 2026.[14]

Infleqtion: Reported record Q2 results of $12.6 million (up +116% YOY) and raised its outlook as its quantum commercialisation accelerates. Shares climbed 33% in August. In addition to earnings, NASA awarded a $20 million contract for a space-based gravity sensor, doubling the total investment in the project to $40 million.[15]

Leidos Holdings:  Shares climbed +21% in August on an earnings beat and higher guidance. The company also secured significant new awards in August, including a $301 million U.S. Army cyber-defence contract and a $56 million Naval Health Research Center behavioural health research contract.[16]

Cyber Security stocks: Cyber names such as Zscaler, Okta, and CrowdStrike all saw 20%+ returns in August on strong corporate earnings. Software posted its second-best month since 2002, while physical AI names such as chips and infrastructure, sold off, creating a record divergence between software and hardware names.[17] In our view, this reflects a shift in how AI is being framed for enterprise software incumbents: increasingly as a demand accelerator against an expanding AI-driven threat landscape, rather than as a disruptive threat to their business models.

Indo-Pacific Defence News

Japan Releases Defence White Paper – Japan releases a defence white paper every year, but the 2026 edition highlights the marked shift in the country’s priorities with regard to defence strategy, procurement, and production.  The paper cites concern about the continued threat posed by China, Russia, and North Korea.  After studying Ukraine and developments in modern warfare, the document highlighted necessary solutions such as renewed focus on lower-cost systems; innovations in research, development and production; increased production; and stockpiling of material.  Japan is acquiring a large number of low-cost, unmanned vehicles in the air, sea and underwater domains. These unmanned systems will help establish what it calls the Synchronized, Hybrid, Integrated and Enhanced Littoral Defense, or SHIELD, by Fiscal Year 2027.  The paper also highlighted the need for an indigenous defence industry, but also the need to strengthen defence cooperation with allies. The Japan-U.S. alliance remains its “cornerstone” relationship, however, the paper asserted, by FY 2027, the country “will strengthen its defence capability to the point where Japan is able to take primary responsibility for dealing with invasions against its nation and disrupt and defeat such threats with the support of its ally and others.” Decades of overdependence on the US driven by a pacifist mindset and constitutional prohibitions appear to be over.  Japan has already achieved 2% defence spending as a proportion of GDP, and it is seeking a record JPY8.9 trillion, or $56.1 billion USD, defence budget next year.[18]

Indo-Pac Partners Accelerate Missile Defence Cooperation – Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific region are intensifying missile defence cooperation through information-sharing, interoperable systems and coordinated operational designs, driven by the recognition that no single country can defend the vast region alone. China’s early-July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into South Pacific waters drew international condemnation and is viewed as strategic signalling rather than routine training, especially given limited advance notice and concurrent China-Russia naval activity. Practical steps include accelerated U.S.-Japan missile co-development and a proposed trilateral networked air and missile defence architecture with Australia, demonstrated interoperability during exercises such as Balikatan 2026, and growing investment in systems like Patriot and THAAD to counter emerging threats including hypersonic weapons.[19]

Monthly Stock Highlights

ElectroOptic Systems Holdings: Shares surged +50% in August, thanks to a half-year earnings surge on booming defence demand for the Australian defence-tech company.  Revenues increased +284% YOY as the total order book jumped 84% this year. EBITDA also turned positive.  Also helping shares were tech updates such as the successful use of high-energy laser systems to neutralise multiple target drones.[20]

Hanwha Systems: Hanwha Systems, the information systems division, stock surged in August, in sympathy with its Hanwha Aerospace division, up +22% for the month. The stock peaked mid-month, reaching 80,300 KRW on August 14, largely driven by strong Q2 earnings (operating profits surged 219% year-over-year) and aggressive expansion moves.  Hanwha Group has secured 15% of Korea Aerospace Industries, with Hanwha S&C holding a 5% stake. The move is interpreted as a strong signal of Hanwha’s intent to actively pursue acquisition if KAI’s privatization proceeds.[21]

PTC Industries: PTC Industries is a leading Indian manufacturer of precision metal components and strategic materials for critical applications. Through its wholly owned subsidiary, Aerolloy Technologies, the group produces titanium and superalloy materials and components for aerospace, defence and space applications in India and global markets. Shares climbed +25% in August driven by a strong Q1 2027 earnings report. Growth was supported by scaling advanced manufacturing programmes, execution across aerospace and defence applications, and an increasing contribution from its integrated materials and components platform.[22]

Poongsan Corp: Shares of Korea’s leading ammunition manufacturer Poongsan experienced a significant recovery in August, rallying +20% after a strong earnings announcement on July 31st accompanied by an investment rating upgrade from BNK Investment & Securities in August.  Poongsan also announced it has decided not to sell its high-profile ammunition business, dismissing persistent speculation that the defence unit could be put on the market as rising global demand boosts the company’s earnings.[23]

Monthly stock detractors

There were some companies that detracted from overall performance. For instance, Astra Microwave Products, Elsight and Ventia all fell -10%, -7.5%, and -6.4% respectively.[24]

Company News – Earnings Analysis (NATO)

NATO September

Company News – Earnings Analysis (NATE)

NATE September

Company News – Earnings Analysis (ARMY)

Company News – Earnings Analysis (GIJO)

GIJO September

Company News – Earnings Analysis (QUAD)

QUAD September

Source: VettaFi as of 04.09.2026. For illustrative purposes only.

NATO 28-07-2026

NATO September 2

NATE 28-07-2026

NATE September 2

ARMY 28-07-2026

ARMY September 2

GIJO 28-07-2026

GIJO September 2

QUAD 28-07-2026

QUAD September 2

Source: VettaFi. As of 28.07.2026. For illustrative purposes only.

Macro Outlook – Short-term trade belies continued long-term opportunity

After the initial euphoria, there is rising investor scepticism, given the technological and fiscal spending obstacles, toward the European defence autonomy story. NATO and the US continue to push for European defence autonomy. But there is rising evidence the European defence autonomy story has sceptics at home, after a strong showing by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.  The growing appeal of a party that is anti-immigration, sympathetic to Russia, seeks to leave the EU and is sceptical of industrial policy carries ​significant long-term risks for Europe’s largest economy.  At a more micro level, waning support for Merz’s CDU party big spending defence policies are seen as a risk for German defence companies like Rheinmetall Events in Germany highlight that the appetite for defence autonomy is not unified across Europe. Poland and the three Baltic states have already reached, or are close to, 5% of GDP on core defence expenditure alone and the four Nordic allies and Greece are above or approaching the 3.5% core military spending target. But many highly indebted European allies, such as the UK, France, Italy and Spain, are struggling and lack the flexibility to increase national borrowing or raise taxes significantly. Spain has a healthier economic outlook, but its government rejects the NATO target. Increased funding for joint procurement in the EU Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), defence financing via the European Investment Bank which has a AAA credit rating, and raising money through a dedicated defence bank might all be long-term solutions.  But clearly the path to European Defence autonomy is not a fiscally easy one. There are other bottlenecks as well such as slow permitting, high energy costs, labour shortages, aging infrastructure and weakening competitiveness that have complicated long-term investment decisions. And on a technological basis, European defence contractors have estimated that the US holds an 8-10 year lead in cloud and AI defence platforms.[25] [26]

Key Charts in Focus

The Scale Catch-22 Cycle

Smaller defence companies tend to struggle because fixed-price contracts put the burden of extra expenses on them rather than the government. If material prices rise or the supply chain bottlenecks, the companies absorb the added costs, which hinders their profitability. While the big defence primes are procuring huge, contracts, smaller companies are receiving research and development funds and securing smaller deals because they lack the track record of handling large contracts. However, they can’t prove they can handle large contracts if no one gives them any. It’s a chicken-or-egg conundrum known in the industry as the “scale catch-22”. All of this results in less available cash, which means these companies must take on debt to finance expansion, which in turn negatively impacts company profitability.

Defence Chart September

Source: Stansberry Research. For illustrative purposes only.

Defence Chart September 2

Source: Yahoo Finance. Data as of 31.08.2026. For illustrative purposes only.

Defence ETF Performance
As of 31.08.2026

NATO (Fund)NATONTR (Index)
1M3.75%3.79%
3M0.22%0.33%
6M8.85%9.09%
YTD17.60%17.95%
12M20.52%21.06%
3Y173.73%177.90%
Since Inception (03/07/2023)178.88%183.26%

Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31.08.2026

Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs and ETCs, your capital is at risk.

European Defence ETF Performance
As of 31.08.2026

ARMY (Fund)ARMYSN (Index)
1M0.61%0.65%
3M1.22%1.29%
6M-3.75%-3.63%
YTD11.25%11.54%
12M10.66%10.95%
3Y-223.75%
Since Inception (07/04/2025)43.75%48.80%

Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31.08.2026

Past performance for the index is in EUR. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs and ETCs, your capital is at risk.

Please note that performance for the US Defence ETF is not yet available to show due to the age of the fund.

Indo Pacific Defence ETF Performance
As of 31.08.2026

QUAD (Fund)IPDEFN (Index)
1M8.62%9.34%
3M-5.54%-4.91%
6M-8.91%-7.40%
YTD13.04%14.22%
12M10.68%14.18%
3Y-241.46%
Since Inception (28/07/2025)6.38%8.83%

Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31.08.2026

Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs and ETCs, your capital is at risk.

Key Risks

  • Thematic ETFs are exposed to a limited number of sectors and thus the investment will be concentrated and may experience high volatility
  • Investors’ capital is fully at risk and may not get back the amount originally invested
  • Exchange rates can have a positive or negative effect on returns
  • The value of equities and equity-related securities can be affected by daily stock and currency market movements
  • Please note this is not an exhaustive list of risks. Other risks may apply.
  • Further risks are disclosed in the KIID and Prospectus

[1] https://www.epc.eu/publication/how-to-finance-europes-defence-surge/

[2] https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-afd-victory-raises-risk-111635631.html

[3] https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/germanys-far-right-is-slow-burning-economic-risk-2026-09-07/

[4] https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/rheinmetall-stock-extends-pullback-as-political-risk-weighs-on-defense/70064026

[5] https://www.ft.com/content/0e9d714b-f367-4dd7-8ef4-6d4b2c08b79c?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[6] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2279051462840072

[7] https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2968802/qualys-q2-earnings-beat-on-channel-strength-fy26-guidance-raised

[8] https://www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2026082415530086047

[9] https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/hanwha-aerospace-stock-signs-k9-howitzer-export-deal-with-spain-93CH-4882120

[10] https://finance.biggo.com/news/756b549c-2be2-4295-99e1-bd48a67229ff

[11] https://investor.caci.com/2026-08-05-CACI-Reports-Results-for-Its-Fiscal-2026-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-and-Issues-Fiscal-Year-2027-Guidance

[12] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-pauses-iran-strikes-as-officials-weigh-dwindling-air-defense-stocks-c7d7ebb0

[13] https://marketwise.com/investing/lyntris-soft-ipo-raises-red-flags-is-the-defense-tech-stock-worth-the-risk/

[14] https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262152271-voyg-spacex-stock-spacex-lunr-rklb-bofa-tradingkey

[15] https://ir.infleqtion.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/201/infleqtion-reports-record-q2-revenue-raises-2026-outlook-as-quantum-commercialization-accelerates

[16] https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/commercial-services/nyse-ldos/leidos-holdings/news/leidos-ldos-is-down-54-after-earnings-beat-higher-2026-outlo

[17] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/software-stocks-crushed-chips-in-august-history-says-september-gets-tougher-chart-of-the-day-100000653.html

[18] https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2026/08/10/japans-2026-defense-white-paper-highlights-new-era-of-crisis-in-indo-pacific/

[19] https://www.eurasiareview.com/14082026-indo-pacific-partners-accelerate-missile-defense-cooperation/

[20] https://www.fool.com.au/2026/07/27/electro-optic-systems-posts-record-revenue-and-orders-in-1h-2026/

[21] https://www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2026/08/11/KSDT6CHL2FCOPH7HKOUPCMHXZM/

[22] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/mukul-agrawal-backed-ptc-industries-shares-slip-4-despite-466-surge-in-q1-profit-and-180-ebitda-growth/articleshow/133312725.cms?from=mdr

[23] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/business/companies/20260720/poongsan-decides-not-to-sell-ammunition-business-fki-chief

[24] Source: YahooFinance. Data as of 31.08.2026

[25] https://dealroom.co/news/other-1y37uel-defence-officials-resist-eu-plan-to-curb-reliance-on-us-tech-giants/

[26] Source: VettaFi

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