Published Date: September 25, 2026
Author: HANetf
Gold Rebound in August Tied to US Fiscal Strength Concerns – Concerns about US fiscal strength was a catalyst for higher gold prices in August. After falling sharply from its January record, the metal gained almost 10% in August, briefly topping $4,700 an ounce. The rally was driven by a weaker dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, and monetary policy expectations. But there is now a bigger concern: the sustainability of US public debt, another popular safe-haven asset. The catalyst was the US Treasury’s decision to increase purchases of longer-dated government bonds. The US Treasury is attempting to reduce longer-term US Treasury yields, which have surged recently to highs last seen in 2007. The move briefly pushed yields lower and weakened the dollar, reinforcing the so-called debasement trade: owning scarce assets such as gold—or even bitcoin—as a hedge against rising government debt and potential currency weakness. Whereas the traditional view of gold links it to geopolitical risk, inflation, and as a safe-haven asset, the market has become increasingly focused on the relationship between US public debt, management of the yield curve, and the performance of the US dollar. The tug of war between the Treasury and the Fed is pulling gold in two different directions.[1]
Gold Prices Hit by Rate and Inflation Pressures – After testing new highs in August, gold prices have been under recent pressure as a stronger-than-expected US jobs report on August 31st revived expectations for higher US interest rates. Investors are also focused on other inflation readings such as the price of oil US labour market data showed nonfarm payrolls increased 162,000 in August, nearly 3X the forecast of 53,000. This represented the strongest monthly gain since March. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised the June and July payroll figures higher. The near-term direction of gold prices hinges on how investors balance expectations for higher US interest rates against geopolitical and inflationary pressures. The stronger employment reading has pushed the odds of a September Fed rate hike to around 60%, compared to 50% prior to the report. Higher rate expectations also strengthened the US dollar from earlier lows. The prospect for rate hikes and a stronger near-term dollar increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver – and could potentially push gold prices down.[2]
UBS: Central Bank Buying Provides Durable Floor for Market – Central bank demand has remained an important pillar of support for gold assets, even when private investment demand has been lacklustre. UBS expects annual central bank purchases to remain elevated, supported by a long-term desire to reduce exposure to USD denominated assets. Following a strong second quarter, when central banks bought 289 metric tons of gold, UBS estimates full-year purchases in the 750-1,000 metric ton range this year. While these flows may not be enough to drive prices sharply higher on their own, they can help stabilise the market and offset weaker areas such as jewellery demand. UBS suggests investors should separate near-term trading risk from the longer-term investment case. In fact, periods of weakness toward USD 4,000/oz or below may ultimately prove to be opportunities to build a strategic exposure to gold assets. For investors with an affinity for real assets, UBS continues to view a mid-single-digit gold allocation as appropriate within a well-diversified portfolio.[3]
Gold Rally Boosting Mining Stocks – The strongest expression of the rally in gold has been in the rise in gold mining stocks. As a leveraged play on gold prices, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners (GDM) has gained 16.1% YTD through August 31, versus only a 2.7% gain for spot gold. While miner revenues rise with gold prices, costs are stickier. Labor accounts for roughly 35%-50% of all-in sustaining costs, and fuel and energy for another 15%-20%. When gold rises faster than costs, margins expand disproportionately. Gold miners are benefiting from higher gold prices and cost discipline. Hybrid exposure may appeal to investors as it provides a pure expression of gold, but also offers equity income in the form of dividends in addition to leveraged exposure to gold prices.[4]
Rising gold prices in August, led to returns among many of the names in the portfolio, delivering returns in excess of 40% for the month.
Aura Minerals Inc: Shares of Aura gained 55% in August driven by record earnings results and a quarterly dividend declaration, coupled with rising gold prices. The company reported quarterly revenue of $335.97 million and guided production targets toward 600k GEO output. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.72 per share.[5]
Eldorado Gold: Stock price surged 48.5% in August driven by strong underlying metal prices for gold and copper which are boosting earnings expectations. The company’s progress on the Skouries copper-gold project in Greece is approaching 97% completion toward commercial production. Jefferies initiated coverage on the stock with a Buy rating.[6]
SSR Mining: The company released its 2Q earnings results on August 4th, highlighting a clean exit from Turkey and the sale of its Copler mine. The company has a strong cash position. Capital returns accelerated alongside a debt-free balance sheet holding roughly $1.8 billion in cash, a new $500 million share buyback authorization, and a reinstated dividend. Shares gained 47% in August.[7]
B2Gold Corp: The stock price surged 46% in August after Mali granted the Fekola regional permit. B2Gold released second-quarter 2026 results on August 6, reporting solid revenue of $789.4 million. The company provided updates on Goose Mine repairs following an earlier circuit fire and reported a tragic fatality at its Masbate operation.[8] [9]
Past performance is not indicative of future performance and when you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk
Gold prices surged in August as the debasement trade reemerged, further adding to the ongoing fluctuations in the spot price of gold. Investors shifted their focus away from the absolute level of interest rates to the reasons rates are rising including market fears about fiscal sustainability, debt issuance and political credibility. Gold is indeed a non-yielding asset, but also serves as an important hedge against deteriorating sovereign liabilities. The US debt level has topped $40 trillion and the long-end of the yield curve is up sharply as investors demand compensation for the heightened level of risk. There is a battle going on between the Fed and the US Treasury which is pulling gold in two different directions. Record central bank buying confirms gold’s status as a neutral reserve asset that serves as a dollar hedge. And gold mining stocks represent a leveraged expression of this trade.[10]
Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31.08.2026
Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs and ETCs, your capital is at risk.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION This document is approved for professional use only.
Communications issued in the UK
The content in this document is issued by HANetf Limited (“HANetf”) and approved by Privium Fund Management (UK) Limited (“Privium”). HANetf is an appointed representative of Privium, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The registered office of Privium is The Shard, 24th Floor, 32 London Bridge Street, London, SE1 9SG
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The price of the Products may vary and they do not offer a fixed income. This document may contain forward looking statements including statements regarding our belief or current expectations with regards to the performance of certain assets classes. Forward looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. There can be no assurance that such statements will be accurate and actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Therefore, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The content of this document is for information purposes and for your internal use only, and does not constitute an investment advice, recommendation, investment research or an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any Product or make any investment.
An investment in an exchange traded product is dependent on the performance of the underlying asset class, less costs, but it is not expected to track that performance exactly. The Products involve numerous risks including among others, general market risks relating to underlying adverse price movements in an Index (for ETFs) or underlying asset class and currency, liquidity, operational, legal and regulatory risks. In addition, in relation to Cryptocurrency ETCs, these are highly volatile digital assets and performance is unpredictable.
[1] https://www.morningstar.com/markets/whats-next-gold-prices-after-latest-rebound
[2] https://www.livemint.com/market/commodities/gold-prediction-will-gold-prices-fall-further-experts-reveal-key-levels-for-investors-to-watch-11788776900146.html
[3] https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealthmanagement/insights/chief-investment-office/house-view/daily/2026/latest-06082026.html
[4] https://www.morningstar.com/markets/whats-next-gold-prices-after-latest-rebound
[5] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/aura-minerals-augo-q2-2026-233054616.html
[6] https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262125221-market-movers-ego-20260821
[7] https://www.ssrmining.com/
[8] https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTG/news/
[9] https://kalkine.ca/news/mining/canadas-mining-trade-is-heating-up-is-b2gold-corp-bto-one-of-the-next-names-to-move
[10] Source: VettaFi
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