Published Date: September 15, 2026
Author: HANetf
European Stocks See Fifth Monthly Gain- Investors have largely priced in a September rate increase from the European Central Bank. This second rate hike of the year is aimed at pre-empting the inflationary effects from the current energy price shock. Despite rate and inflation headwinds, market enthusiasm continued for a fifth straight month. Private-sector activity in the euro area unexpectedly improved in August, thanks to the strongest manufacturing growth in more than four years. European shares have been bolstered by strong corporate earnings and asset inflows. Europe’s STOXX 600 sits near record highs with companies exceeding earnings expectations and the euro at a 3-month peak. The European economy is weathering the Iran war better than anticipated. Investors are also rewarding a clearer monetary policy outlook versus other regions and less exposure to AI-driven volatility. European equities drew in over $2.4 billion in inflows through mid-August.[1] [2]
European Infrastructure Developments – European infrastructure saw major investments in AI supercomputing, renewable energy scaling, and measures to address climate disruptions to inland waterways. The European High Performance Computing Joint Undertaking (EuroHPC JU) signed a procurement contract with Bull to deploy a new AI-optimised supercomputer in Kajaani, Finland at the CSC IT Center for Science. It will be powering the LUMI AI Factory (LUMI AIF), establishing a new European AI factory ecosystem for researchers and startups.[3] In the area of renewable energy, the European Investment Fund (EIF) committed €200 million to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners in May to scale European biogas production.[4] The European Commission adopted Greece’s €4.77 billion social climate plan on August 27, 2026, targeting building renovations, public transit expansion, and energy efficiency.[5]
Waterway Crisis a Climate Change Wake Up Call – Severe drought in August has caused the water level of the Rhine and Danube to dip to historically low levels, severely restricting barge loads and putting regional industrial supply chains under heavy pressure. In addition, the Danube plays a vital role in cooling certain nuclear power plants. In Hungary and Romania, low river levels have already disrupted operations at the Paks and Cernavodă power stations, which are the sole sources of nuclear power in their respective countries and account for around 40% of Hungary’s electricity generation and 20.5% of Romania’s. The low water levels in the Rhine and the Danube show that extreme weather events are no longer just an environmental issue. They are becoming an economic factor capable of simultaneously affecting logistics, energy and industrial activity. For example, the German chemicals sector, which is largely concentrated along the Rhine, is one of the sectors most dependent on river transport. This blow comes at a time when the German chemicals industry is already weakened by high energy costs and a loss of competitiveness, with production having fallen by around 20% since 2018. In the short term, hydrological forecasts predict only a limited improvement in the situation. On the Rhine, the seasonal period of low water levels usually lasts until autumn, suggesting that disruptions are likely to continue in the coming weeks. More broadly, declining snow cover, retreating glaciers and an increase in extreme heat could make the frequency of such events more common in the future. The situation highlights the need for businesses and public decision-makers to integrate climate risks more fully into their logistics, industrial and energy strategies. For businesses reliant on inland waterway transport, the challenge now goes beyond the ad hoc management of a single drought episode: it raises the question of supply chain diversification and the capacity to absorb more frequent climate-related disruptions.[6]
Peace Will Have Only Limited Impact on Defence – According to a new editorial piece published on CEO Poland, peace agreements will only have a limited effect on long-term defence book orders because one of the main sources of demand going forward will be the need to rebuild depleted stocks of equipment and ammunition. The scale of recent consumption illustrates the point. The first 100 hours of US operations against Iran around the turn of February and March were estimated to have involved munitions worth USD 3.7 billion. Multi-year contracts to replenish stocks used in the Middle East and in Ukraine therefore provide a durable base of demand for defence manufacturers. Europe’s ReArm Europe plan, envisages defence-related investment of around EUR 800 billion by 2030. Analysts broadly agree that European military expenditure is likely to keep rising over the coming years regardless of the course of any single conflict. Poland is a clear example. Even if a ceasefire in Ukraine were reached, it would not automatically reduce Poland’s military budget. It could even reinforce the case for maintaining or increasing spending if Russia were able to redeploy forces currently committed in Ukraine. The same logic applies to the Middle East and to strategic competition between the United States and China. A ceasefire may reduce immediate military activity, but it does not eliminate the underlying geopolitical rivalry that is driving long-term investment in defence capacity. Over the past five years, the remaining elements of the post-Cold War “peace dividend” have been fading rapidly. The chances of reversing that trend now appear very small. High defence budgets are therefore likely to remain in place for years and potentially decades. Much of the increase in military expenditure is already reflected in defence-company valuations, but companies able to adapt to the requirements of the modern battlefield still face a long period of structurally strong demand. Key growth areas are likely to include automation, unmanned systems and military robotics, technologies designed to counter drones and autonomous platforms, and missile defence.[7]
AP Moller-Maersk: Shares advanced 24% in August, driven by strong earnings results and an upgraded full-year outlook. Strong container volumes, high spot freight rates caused by port congestion, and an updated full-year EBITDA guidance of $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion drove share price gains.[8]
Var Energi ASA: Stock gained 9% in August as shareholders approved a 2Q dividend distribution and the company moved forward with strategic plans including a merger involving BlueNord.[9]
Kongsberg Gruppen: Stock was up 8% in August with investors focusing more on long-term performance. Company shares are up 46% for the year on the Norwegian shipbuilders strong maritime defence booking momentum.[10]
Monthly Stock Detractors
Unfortunately, there were several funds that fell during the month. These include Flughafen Zürich, Eiffage, and Ferrovial which fell – 12.7%, -11.6%, and 11.2% respectively.[11]
Past performance is not indicative of future performance and when you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk
Goldman Sachs Research reports that earnings-per-share in the STOXX Europe 600 Index climbed 14% in the first half of 2026 and are on track to rise 15% for the full year. Driven by foreign investors, inflows are at their highest level since 2021 in an effort to diversify. Resilient economies, energy earnings, and big thematic shifts such as spending on tech, power, defence, and infrastructure are supporting European shares. This year’s market performance demonstrates that investor perception of Europe as a region hampered by weak earnings growth is based on myth, not reality. First half earnings-per-share growth is tracking at the strongest pace in three years and notably comes amid a renewed energy supply shock. For most European economies, higher oil and natural gas prices have been a drag on growth. However, it has been a positive for Europe’s sizable petrochemical industry, utilities, and related sectors. Commodity companies accounted for an estimated half of the earnings increase in the STOXX Europe 600 this year. While Europe’s profitability lags that of US companies, the continent’s firms are improving their return on equity, or ROE, as profit margins and stock buybacks have ramped up in recent years. In addition, Europe is benefitting from a new “post-modern cycle” of higher rates, inflation, and investment in infrastructure, energy security, and AI capital expenditures. Goldman Sachs notes that the region has a high share of so-called HALO companies with heavy assets and low obsolescence, which tend to be insulated from AI-related disruption.[12]
Source: Factset, Goldman Sachs Research. Data as of 30.06.2026. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-21/european-stocks-stall-near-longest-losing-streak-in-a-decade
[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/war-hit-european-markets-are-far-down-out-2026-08-21/
[3] https://www.eurohpc-ju.europa.eu/eurohpc-ju-signs-contract-deploy-lumi-ai-supercomputer-2026-08-31_en
[4] https://www.eif.org/press/all/eif-commits-eur200-million-to-copenhagen-infrastructure-partners-to-scale-european-biogas-production
[5] https://employment-social-affairs.ec.europa.eu/news/commission-paves-way-greece-implement-its-eur477-billion-social-climate-plan-support-vulnerable-2026-08-27_en
[6] https://www.coface.com/news-economy-and-insights/low-water-levels-on-the-rhine-and-danube-put-the-european-economy-under-pressure
[7] https://ceo.com.pl/en/peace-would-not-necessarily-end-defence-industry-boom-19860/
[8] https://global.morningstar.com/en-eu/stocks/maersk-what-we-think-stock-after-earnings
[9] https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bluenord-minutes-extraordinary-general-meeting-094000923.html
[10] https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/kongsberg-stock-holds-steady-as-investors-look-past-thin-august-trading/70000197
[11] Source: Yahoo Finance. Data as of 31.08.2026
[12] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/european-stocks-defy-global-shocks-with-strong-earnings-growth
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