Published Date: September 15, 2026
Author: HANetf
Silver’s dual identity as both a monetary and an industrial metal is well understood across precious metals markets, and in August the monetary side was firmly in the driver’s seat. Silver has rallied from $57.60 at the end of July to $66.58 per ounce, its strongest monthly advance since January 2026. Silver both tracked and surpassed gold’s rally, a function of its higher beta to the yellow metal. While a period of consolidation remains possible amid ongoing rate volatility, the recent action suggests that silver may be winding up for another move.[1]
Silver’s tendency toward greater volatility than gold needs no introduction, yet in certain environments that perceived drawback becomes a distinct advantage. The rally from late October 2025 to late January 2026 is a case in point as spot silver more than doubled and outperformed gold handily. The often-quoted gold-silver ratio embodies this relationship, and it has historically reverted to its mean following outsized advances or declines. After peaking in April 2025, a broadening of the precious metals rally, potentially catalysed by Liberation Day tariffs, sent the ratio sharply lower into January’s peak in silver.[2]
While the retracement from January’s peak may appear dramatic, history suggests that sharp reversals following silver’s advances are not unusual. During the 2011 bull market in precious metals, silver rallied amid sovereign debt concerns and accommodative U.S. monetary policy, driving the gold-silver ratio to a multi-decade low before the subsequent correction unwound much of that performance.[3] That episode is a reminder that periods of heightened volatility, while rarely comfortable for investors, are an inevitable feature of long-term bull markets.
Fast forward to today, and silver now appears to be ready to fluctuate in price again. Many of the conditions behind the October 2025 squeeze remain in place: supply is still in deficit, global inventories continue to decline, and recent rhetoric linking U.S.-Iran sanctions to Chinese trade is a reminder that trade risk has not receded. While the market has largely normalised from a technical perspective, silver remains among the thinnest-liquidity markets and is susceptible to outsized price swings. With the U.S. national debt having topped $40 trillion and long-end Treasury yields up sharply as investors demand compensation for fiscal risk,[4] the dollar could weaken further, potentially driving the next leg of the currency debasement trade. Gold is charting the monetary course, and history shows silver could potentially follow.
Silver’s long-term outlook extends well beyond its historical role as a high-beta companion to gold. It is being reshaped by a convergence of structural forces including energy security imperatives, accelerating solar deployment, the broader electrification push, and the embedding of silver into critical infrastructure that is difficult to substitute and politically difficult to reverse. In our view, the result is a market in which silver demand is increasingly anchored by policy-driven investment cycles, rather than by discretionary industrial consumption that ebbs and flows with the business cycle.
Supply, by contrast, has barely moved. Mine production has been effectively flat for a decade even as prices climbed,[5] largely because most silver is produced as a byproduct of lead, zinc, copper and gold operations, where producers have little incentive to flex output when silver rallies – this illiquid market is one of the reasons for silvers volatility. The result has been years of consecutive market deficits, bridged only by drawing down above-ground inventories that are now materially depleted. That depletion was visible in the leasing market, where the cost of borrowing physical silver spiked to extraordinary levels last October as available London inventory thinned. Lease rates remain a clear read on physical availability, and a renewed spike would signal the deficit is again outrunning the market’s ability to source metal. We believe that the lack of sizeable new mines in the pipeline, will result in supply remaining relatively unresponsive to price even as demand keeps building.
For pure-play silver miners, this backdrop has generated AISC margins that are unfamiliar over the past decade, with all-in sustaining costs sitting well below the prevailing spot price.[6] That margin profile gives investors meaningful operating leverage to silver, which is why silver miners have outperformed in silver bull markets.[7]
The constructive supply backdrop does not come without volatility. Speculative positioning leveraged derivative flows, and concentrated activity by large trading entities have amplified short-term price swings, creating a tug of war between fundamental buyers and tactical speculators. However, these dislocations sit on top of a market that has undergone a meaningful re-rating, driven by years of accumulated undervaluation and the continuously deepening structural supply deficit. In this context, near-term turbulence is better understood as part of an ongoing adjustment process rather than a reversal of the broader macro thesis.
[1] Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31.08.2026.
[2] Ibid
[3] https://www.reuters.com/article/business/spot-silver-rises-to-all-time-high-4951-an-ounce-idUSTRE73R555/
[4] https://qz.com/us-national-debt-40-trillion-record-091126
[5] https://silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/
[6] https://silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/World-Silver-Survey-2026.pdf
[7] Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31.08.2026.
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