Travel ETF Quarterly Report | July 2025

Travel ETF Key Takeaways

The TSA has confirmed that six of the ten busiest travel days in its 24-year history occurred in just the first half of this year. On Sunday, June 22 alone, a record-breaking 3.097 million passengers were screened nationwide, with Chicago O’Hare handling nearly 114,000 travellers, both all-time highs.[1]

JetBlue’s travel platform, Paisly, announced a major expansion of its cruise offerings on June 26, 2025. The service now includes bookings with Cunard, Holland America Line, Virgin Voyages, and Oceania Cruises, making cruise planning simpler and more accessible for travellers.[2]

Europe’s air travel is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, with mid-June flight activity reaching 99% of 2019 levels, according to Eurocontrol. Low-cost carriers like Ryanair, Wizz Air, and Turkish Airlines are not only outperforming 2024 expectations but also flying more routes than in 2019, with four of the top ten airline groups surpassing pre-COVID volume. Globally, jet fuel demand is rising in step with travel, with over 7.3 million barrels per day projected during the July Fourth week—up 3.1% from last year.[3]

Royal Caribbean shares traded just below record highs on July 9 after a top Wall Street analyst reaffirmed his bullish outlook. Stifel’s Steven Wieczynski, who predicted in December that the stock, then around $225, was worth over $300, has been proven right, with shares recently closing at a record $334.48. Now, with strong momentum, investors are asking just how much higher it can climb.[4]

Macro Outlook

In a significant move for the airline industry, United Airlines and JetBlue Airways have unveiled a new strategic partnership named “Blue Sky.” The collaboration aims to expand route networks, introduce reciprocal frequent flyer benefits, and streamline booking across both airlines. Subject to regulatory approval, the alliance is set to enhance service at key hubs, including New York’s JFK and Newark Liberty Airport, with a launch anticipated later this year.[5]

U.S. hotel giants Hilton and Marriott are ramping up their expansion efforts in Africa to capitalize on the continent’s fast-growing tourism sector. With both business and leisure travel on the rise, Africa is becoming an increasingly appealing market for global hospitality brands. Hilton announced plans to more than triple its footprint across the region, aiming for over 160 hotels in the coming years.[6]

Airlines have become more efficient and financially disciplined, streamlining costs, expanding profitable routes, and boosting revenue through loyalty programs and ancillary fees like extra legroom. According to Airlines for America, U.S. carriers are currently investing at record levels—averaging $21 billion annually from 2022 to 2024—on aircraft, ground equipment, and technology. Such aggressive reinvestment signals strong confidence in the industry’s future rather than expectations of turbulence ahead.[7]

Joanna Sawicka, Co-Portfolio Manager, TRIP ETF: “We expect the travel industry to remain strong in the upcoming months, especially as the peak summer season continues to drive demand. July and August are traditionally the busiest months for travel, and current trends show solid bookings across both leisure and international markets. Airlines and hotels are benefiting from high demand and consumers prioritising experiences over goods. While some price sensitivity may emerge, especially with inflation concerns, overall sentiment remains positive. We anticipate continued momentum through early fall, supported by late-summer travel and international tourism.”

Sources available upon request. Please remember that when you invest in ETFs, your capital is at risk.

[1] https://x.com/TSA/status/1939737739470995725

[2] https://travelhost.com/cruises/jetblue-makes-a-surprising-move-in-the-cruise-space

[3] https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2025-06/european-aviation-overview-20250619.pdf

[4] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/can-royal-caribbeans-stock-keep-rising-heres-what-wall-streets-new-top-bull-says-b0bbe8d2?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[5] https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/united-airlines-joins-hand-in-hand-with-jetblue-airways-for-blue-sky-partnership-heres-the-new-updates-you-should-know-now/

[6] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/hotel-groups-hilton-marriot-announce-african-expansion-plans-2025-06-18/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[7] https://www.impactinvesting.ai/2023/01/13/unfazed-by-airline-grounding-investors-look-ahead-to-earnings-u-s-global-investors/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

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