Ukraine Reconstruction ETF Report | July 2026

Ukraine Reconstruction ETF – Key Takeaways

NATO Members Reaffirm Commitment to Ukraine – At the NATO July Summit in Turkey, NATO renewed its €70 billion pledge for military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine and affirmed commitments to sustaining at least equivalent levels in 2027. To this end, NATO also affirmed that Ukraine contributes to transatlantic security, and that NATO Allies stand united in unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Trump also said at a NATO summit that the U.S. will give Ukraine a license to make Patriot air defence systems to counter missile attacks from Russia in their more than four-year war, a huge coup for Kyiv which has long requested the technology.  Earlier in the year, the EU announced a decision to provide multi-year funding to Ukraine through the Ukraine Support Loan.[1] [2]

Ukraine Receiving Gripen Fighter Jets – Ukraine is going to be receiving Gripen fighter jets, considered well-suited for its fight against Russia. Ukraine’s air force is made up of Western-supplied F-16s, French-made Mirages, and Soviet-era jets. But the Swedish-made Gripen stands out as a strong fit for Ukraine’s fight: It was designed to stay mobile, operate from austere airstrips, require less maintenance than some other fighters, and survive against the kind of threat Russia poses. Ukraine is set to receive 16 advanced Gripen E jets under a roughly $2.54 billion deal, Swedish defence company Saab recently announced. Deliveries are expected to begin in early 2029; however, Sweden intends to send Ukraine 16 older Gripen C/D fighters early next year. The jets not only replace losses but serve Ukrainian combat needs. But while introducing a new jet type creates opportunities, it also creates new challenges. The training for and integration of different jet types is difficult, as is managing a host of jets with very distinct parts and logistics chains, airbase needs, and maintenance requirements. But for Ukraine, the Gripen deal is not just about adding another fighter. It is about building an air force with more options, more suppliers, and deeper ties to the Western militaries Kyiv expects to rely on long after this war ends.[3]

Ukraine’s Attacks on Infrastructure – Russia’s economy is suffering from high inflation, an acute labour shortage and widespread fuel shortages amid sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s strategy of attacking infrastructure is designed to make Russia’s invasion too expensive to continue, and it may be bearing fruit. Almost all of Russia’s 83 territories are reporting gasoline shortages and supply disruptions. Russia’s vast territory has long been one of its greatest military advantages in the war against Ukraine. But is that strength becoming a weakness? Ukraine is increasingly using long-range drones and precision strikes to exploit Russia’s overstretched supply lines and defences. Instead of sending tanks and troops on counter-offensives, Ukraine is focused on making the war more costly and difficult for Russia to sustain. By targeting oil facilities, logistics routes, military infrastructure, and supply lines to occupied Crimea, Ukraine is forcing Moscow to defend thousands of kilometres of territory and critical assets spread across the country. For months now, Ukraine has been sending long-range drones and missiles to attack oil facilities deep inside Russia. Almost daily, there are reports of another oil depot, refinery, or fuel loading terminal being hit. Shortages are spreading, putting pressure on Putin, to end the war. Yet recent attacks on Kyiv show Russia remains capable of inflicting devastating damage on Ukrainian cities as well, highlighting the difficult balance both sides face in a war of attrition. Civilian casualties in 2026 are “significantly higher” than during the same period in 2025, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine.[4]

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For the last four years, Ukraine has been teaching the world a lesson on modern warfare.  In modern war, innovation does not come from committees, but from people close to the problem, under pressure, who are willing and able to iterate and adapt. One of the obstacles Ukraine has dealt with is that funding from allies such as Europe and the US comes with a preference for buying weapons from those countries. While many of those weapons are effective, they are expensive and it inhibits rapid development on the front line.  As expressed by the President of the Kyiv School of Economics, “A drone jammer that works today may be obsolete in three weeks. A cheap naval drone can challenge the logic of a billion-dollar ship. A unit testing five competing systems may learn faster than a ministry spending a year selecting one.” The best solutions ultimately are joint ventures between Ukrainian and US firms to facilitate production at scale. At the NATO summit, Trump agreed to grant Ukraine a manufacturing license for Patriot missile interceptors, giving Ukraine the ability to co-produce key air-defence weapons critical to defending against Russian ballistic weapon attacks hammering the country.

Key risks

  • Thematic ETFs are exposed to a limited number of sectors and thus the investment will be concentrated and may experience high volatility
  • The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is a source of instability for Ukraine and the Ukrainian economy. This instability may detrimentally affect the ETF’s investments which have exposure to Ukraine or the Ukrainian economy.
  • Investors’ capital is fully at risk and may not get back the amount originally invested
  • Exchange rates can have a positive or negative effect on returns
  • The value of equities and equity-related securities can be affected by daily stock and currency market movements
  • Please note this is not an exhaustive list of risks. Other risks may apply.
  • Further risks are disclosed in the KIID and Prospectus

[1] https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2026/07/08/the-ankara-summit-declaration

[2] https://apnews.com/article/nato-trump-iran-ukraine-turkey-d393e8ef6103e32c984c4337a82930b1

[3] https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-getting-gripens-ideal-against-russia-but-with-new-complexity-2026-7

[4] https://www.dw.com/en/is-ukraine-turning-russias-size-into-a-disadvantage/video-77874366

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