Published Date: June 3, 2025
Author: HANetf
After months of price pressure and uncertainty, uranium is regaining its footing, buoyed by contracting clarity, resilient fundamentals, and renewed investor interest.
The uranium market staged a meaningful rebound in April, with spot prices rising 5.40% to $67.70 per pound, up from a late-March low of $63.20. The recovery extended into early May, with prices reaching $70, a roughly 10% gain from the 2025 lows. While the first quarter left many investors frustrated, recent strength may mark the beginning of a more sustainable move higher, supported by improving sentiment and resumed utility activity.
The uranium term price has held firm at $80 per pound, reinforcing the strength of long-term market fundamentals. The persistent premium over spot pricing has re-energised the carry trade, helping to support the spot market.
The underlying index for the Uranium Miners ETF rose 7.11% in April, while the underlying index for the Junior Uranium Miners ETF outperformed with an 8.62% gain. Early May has seen further upside, fuelled by improved risk appetite and short covering. Many uranium miners currently have high short interest ratios, meaning hedge funds have bet their shares will fall in value, which could set up sharp short covering rallies. While this short uranium trade has worked over the past few months, the improving market developments could quickly flip the situation and force them to cover their short positions.
Uranium’s resilience has been particularly striking against the backdrop of extreme market volatility. As other asset classes faltered, uranium held its ground, supported by its structural supply-demand story, inelastic demand and insulation from tariff-related disruptions.
Importantly, physical uranium and uranium equities continue to outperform over longer periods. The strong five-year returns of physical uranium and uranium equities relative to broader commodity and equity benchmarks reinforce the metal’s role as a differentiated and strategic asset class.
The Trump administration’s decision to pause its new reciprocal tariffs for 90 days offered the clarity many utilities had been waiting for. Uranium was already excluded from these tariffs, and the pause has further calmed fears of near-term supply disruptions. Contracting activity, largely frozen earlier in the year, has resumed, helping to firm up spot prices and improve sentiment in uranium equities.
Source of all performance data: HANetf; Bloomberg. Data as of 30.04.2025. Past performance is not indicative of future performance and when you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk. Additional sources available on request.
Although uranium was not subject to the April tariff package, it is included in the ongoing Section 232 investigation into critical minerals. While this raises the possibility of future import restrictions, it also elevates uranium’s importance in U.S. energy and security policy, especially as utilities increasingly prioritise domestic and allied sources of supply. Importantly, producers such as Cameco have structured contracts to shift potential tariff costs to end buyers, mitigating their exposure.
The uranium carry trade has reasserted itself in 2025, helping to re-anchor spot market activity and restore confidence in pricing. With the long-term price holding steady near $80 per pound while the spot market corrected, the economics of the carry trade have turned favourable once again. Traders and financial intermediaries are increasingly stepping in to buy pounds in the spot market for delivery into term contracts, a dynamic that provides incremental liquidity and supports prices.
According to UxC, nearly 4 million pounds, or roughly 20% of year-to-date term volume, have already transacted through carry trades, a stark difference from the dynamic in recent years. Importantly, carry trade activity highlights a core advantage of the uranium market today. While sentiment can ebb and flow, the commercial structure and long-term demand profile create recurring mechanisms that stabilise price and volume. In past cycles, sustained carry trade activity has often preceded broader price recoveries, a dynamic that may be underway again.
We believe the spot price should trade closer to the term price in a market with a structural supply deficit of 35-40 million pounds this year. The $17 a pound price differential at the peak between the term and spot prices was a temporary dislocation driven by market sentiment and liquidity factors.
Surging artificial intelligence (AI) workloads and the exponential growth of data centres are intensifying the global search for scalable, carbon-free baseload power, and nuclear is emerging as a leading solution. In April, Google announced it would fund the development of three new nuclear sites, each targeting at least 600 megawatts (MW), signalling another meaningful commercial partnership between big tech and advanced nuclear developers. These projects follow prior big tech commitments to nuclear energy and align with a broader U.S. Department of Energy announcement that identified 16 federal sites to co-locate data centres and AI infrastructure with new energy infrastructure, including nuclear.
Data centres are projected to consume 2.5x more power by 2030, equivalent to Japan’s entire electricity use today, and nuclear remains one of the few non-intermittent sources capable of reliably supporting this scale.
China continues to lead global nuclear development by a wide margin. In April, the State Council approved the construction of 10 additional reactors, marking the fourth consecutive year of at least 10 new approvals. These reactors represent the continued long-term structural support for uranium markets. China’s broader plans include 58 operable reactors, 30 under construction and 40 more planned.
Beyond sheer volume, China’s approach signals strategic intent: a desire to improve energy security, reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and maintain control over the full nuclear supply chain. China’s nuclear expansion represents one of the most reliable and demand-insulated components in the global uranium story.
Cameco’s first-quarter results exceeded expectations and reinforced its continued commitment to supply discipline. The company maintained its full-year production guidance and reiterated that it will not restart idled capacity or expand output without sufficient long-term utility contracting. Importantly, Cameco highlighted a growing pipeline of contract discussions and is seeing momentum in requests for proposals (RFPs). With 67% of global utility requirements through 2045 still uncovered (3.2 billion pounds), Cameco’s patient stance is a powerful signal of long-term market tightness.
Sources available on request.
The uranium market is showing positive signs. After a period of volatility and hesitation, recent developments, from policy clarity around U.S. tariffs to an inevitable resumption in utility contracting, have started to clear the path forward. While short-term investor sentiment has been shaped by geopolitical noise and macro uncertainty, the long-term drivers of the uranium bull market remain solidly intact.
Supply remains constrained, with major producers exercising discipline and new projects facing delays or deferrals. The re-emergence of the carry trade highlights improving functionality in uranium markets, and demand from AI-driven energy growth and national nuclear strategies continues to build quietly in the background.
In a world where few assets are uncorrelated, uranium increasingly stands out, bolstered by inelastic demand, long lead times for new supply and a growing recognition of nuclear’s role in global energy security. While sentiment may take time to recover fully, the case for uranium continues to strengthen, and with the market beginning to reflect that shift, the path ahead may look more promising than it has in months. In our view, these conditions collectively support the next leg of the bull market. With global uranium mine production well short of the world’s uranium reactor requirements, the supply deficit building over the next decade and near-term supply inhibited by long lead times and capital intensity, we believe that restarts and new mines in development are critical.
The uranium price target as an incentive level for further restarts and greenfield development is a moving target. We believe that we will need higher uranium prices to incentivise enough production to meet forecasted deficits. Over the long term, increased demand in the face of an uncertain uranium supply is likely to continue supporting a sustained bull market.
URNM (Fund)URNMXA (Index)1M16.49%16.67%3M-3.36%-3.24%6M-16.90%-16.66%YTD10.99%11.48%12M23.98%24.85%3Y78.86%81.65%Since Inception (03/05/2022)85.82%90.87%
URNJ (Fund)NSURNJ (Index)1M19.18%19.20%3M-7.89%-7.90%6M-25.29%-25.26%YTD3.18%3.29%12M15.80%17.05%3Y-62.45%Since Inception (22/02/2024)19.21%21.28%
Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31.08.2026
Performance before inception is based on back-tested data. Backtesting is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such a strategy would have been. Back-tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk.
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