Lloyd Capital Outlook

Last updated: 21st July 2026 | Author: Luigi Scirocco | Portfolio Manager, Lloyd Capital

Markets are exuberant – the scale of capital flowing into AI infrastructure has been extraordinary.[1] Since April, equity markets have been driven largely by businesses whose strong near-term earnings reflect supply bottlenecks rather than durable competitive advantages.[2]

Global semiconductor indexes have seen returns of 50% or more since April, with memory manufacturers among the strongest contributors.[3] Their earnings today are boosted by demand that has outstripped supply, driving prices sharply higher. The market is increasingly valuing these earnings as though current conditions were normal and sustainable.

None of this tells us when the market configuration will reverse. Timing is unknowable. What is observable is the behaviour driving it: aggressive risk-taking, capital chasing recent performance, and investment decisions increasingly motivated by fear of missing out rather than careful appraisal of long-term value.

Valuations across key indices are at historically elevated levels, while the market is enthusiastically embracing large IPOs with ambitious growth narratives and inflated expectations.[4] Historically, markets driven primarily by “FOMO” (fear of missing out) have experienced sharp corrections when the fundamentals eventually reassert themselves.[5]

In the Lloyd Focused Equity UCITS ETF (FEP) strategy, we are not participants in that dynamic. Our approach remains what it has always been: owning quality businesses with strong earning power at prices that offer a margin of safety. Long-term fundamentals are not what the market is rewarding today. Yet in the long term, the return earned by a shareholder is determined by the free cash flow generated by the business relative to the price paid for it.[6]

The market’s current preoccupation with AI has created opportunities in precisely the type of businesses we seek to own. Quality companies have lagged for an extended period as capital has chased more speculative narratives, allowing us to deploy capital into select software businesses that occupy deeply embedded positions within their customers’ operations. A few examples of businesses in the FEP strategy illustrate this approach. A company such as ServiceNow provides the workflow, governance, and orchestration infrastructure that allows enterprises to deploy and manage AI capabilities across their organisations.

We also deployed capital into Constellation Software, which acquires and operates Vertical Market Software. It has scaled at a remarkable pace over time, compounding both free cash flow and its share price at more than 25% annually on average since its 2006 IPO.[7] The company owns mission-critical software businesses serving niche industries, where deep workflow expertise and high switching costs create durable competitive advantages. As AI capabilities improve, these businesses are potentially well positioned to enhance productivity and deliver greater value to customers while reinforcing their competitive positions.

We also find investment opportunities where few care to look. H World, one of China’s largest hotel operators, with a room base comparable to Hilton’s globally, is an example of those. The company has a market capitalisation of approximately US$13 billion and generates around US$1 billion of annual free cash flow.[8] Through its asset-light model, management expects to roughly double the number of rooms over the coming decade. In our view, H World is building a critical part of China’s tourism infrastructure at a time when strengthening domestic consumption remains a key government priority. The combination of scale, growth potential, and attractive economics offers a potentially compelling long-term return profile.

We believe that maintaining a prudent, disciplined approach is the most effective way to protect and grow capital over the long term. Maintaining discipline requires patience and fortitude when short-term gains accrue to those taking risks we are unwilling to take. We accept that trade-off. We always have.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Long-term returns are driven not by market excitement, but by the cash flow a business generates relative to the price paid.

About Lloyd Focused Equity UCITS ETF (FEP)

FEP aims to provide investors with exposure to companies that are of outstanding quality and underappreciated by the market.

Companies must have a long history of good financial performance and a strong balance sheet. They must maintain a high operating margin, consistently exhibit positive operating earnings, generate large free cash flow, and show robust returns on invested capital. The quality of the companies, the sustainability of their earnings power, and their development potential is also assessed through the analysis of 4 critical factors that Lloyd Capital defines as the 4 “M”s – Moat, Management, Market and Macro.

Click here to explore the fund page

Key Risks

  • Information technology companies are subject to specific risks such as rapid technological changes and short product lifespans.
  • Prospective investors whose assets and liabilities are predominantly in currencies, other than the Base Currency of an ETF , should take into account the potential risk of loss arising from fluctuations in value between the currency of investment and such other currencies.
  • The value of equities and equity-related securities can be affected by daily stock and currency market movements.
  • When investing in ETFs your capital is at risk and you may not get back the amount originally invested.
  • For a complete overview of all the risks, please refer to the “Risk Factors” in the Prospectus.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION This document is approved for professional use only.

Communications issued in the UK

The content in this document is issued by HANetf Limited (“HANetf”) and approved by Privium Fund Management (UK) Limited (“Privium”). HANetf is an appointed representative of Privium, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The registered office of Privium is The Shard, 24th Floor, 32 London Bridge Street, London, SE1 9SG

This communication has been prepared for professional investors, but the exchange traded product (“ETCs”) and exchange traded fund (“ETFs”) set out in this communication (“Products”) may be available in some jurisdictions to any investors. Please check with your broker or intermediary that the relevant Product is available in your jurisdiction and suitable for your investment profile.

Disclaimers

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The price of the Products may vary and they do not offer a fixed income. This document may contain forward looking statements including statements regarding our belief or current expectations with regards to the performance of certain assets classes. Forward looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. There can be no assurance that such statements will be accurate and actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Therefore, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The content of this document is for information purposes and for your internal use only, and does not constitute an investment advice, recommendation, investment research or an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any Product or make any investment.

An investment in an exchange traded product is dependent on the performance of the underlying asset class, less costs, but it is not expected to track that performance exactly. The Products involve numerous risks including among others, general market risks relating to underlying adverse price movements in an Index (for ETFs) or underlying asset class and currency, liquidity, operational, legal and regulatory risks. In addition, in relation to Cryptocurrency ETCs, these are highly volatile digital assets and performance is unpredictable.


[1] Fortune, 2026.

[2] MoneyWeek, 2026.

[3] Yahoo! Finance, 2026.

[4] BBC, 2026.

[5] Morningstar, 2025.

[6] Morgan Stanley, 2023.

[7] Yahoo! Finance, 2026.

[8] Stock Analysis, 2026.

More Articles

Canada beyond the headlines: the case for energy, financials, and real estate

August 2026

Beyond a Chatbot: How can emerging-market platforms monetise AI?

July 2026

Mag 7 to Lag 7: What a tech stumble says about the potential risks of investing in major indices

July 2026

Natural Gas – growing source of global energy and uncertainty

July 2026

What is the cost of rebuilding Ukraine?

June 2026

Why are central banks buying what they once sold?

June 2026

Defence 2.0: How Drones and Cyber are reshaping investments

June 2026

What investors should consider before investing in Defence ETFs in 2026

June 2026

Copper’s role in the world has shifted

June 2026

The quest for the perfect business

June 2026

How memory is the AI bottleneck

June 2026

What does AI mean for cyber defence?

June 2026

Do drones mean the death of defence primes?

June 2026

Computing’s next big disruption is already here

May 2026

Why can’t silver supply keep up with demand?

May 2026

How much will the US military spend on drones?

May 2026

What does the Iran war mean for travel and North American energy?

April 2026

Navigating geopolitics, energy security and structural demand

April 2026

Global Instability and the Future of European Energy Security

April 2026

Canada has what the world needs

March 2026

Ukraine could become the West’s solution for rearmament

March 2026

Iran crisis – four sectors to keep on your radar

March 2026

From tanks to code: why the next defence boom will be digital

February 2026

Why cybersecurity and defence may be complementary themes?

February 2026

Preferred shares and outlook for months ahead

February 2026

Next stop for global travel

February 2026

The new nuclear age – why physical uranium matters now

February 2026

Critical Commodities for 2026

February 2026

Reconciling responsibility with rearmament

January 2026

The New Age of Tech | Tech Megatrend Outlook 2026

January 2026

The Future of Emerging Markets: 2026 Market Outlook

January 2026

Shape of the Markets by PT Asset Management

October 2025

Nuclear Energy – why uranium is back in favour

September 2025

Copper’s less known demand driver: defence

September 2025

Indo-Pacific Rearmament: How much will defence budgets grow by 2030?

September 2025

How gold is custodied and why it should matter to investors

September 2025

Travel in 2025 – strong data drives growth

August 2025

Understanding covered call ETFs

August 2025

Different approaches to covered call ETFs

August 2025

The opportunity presented by volatility

August 2025

Heightened demand for defence in the pacific region

August 2025

Three drivers of the health care sector in 2025

August 2025

Equal weighted tech – an interview with Anthony Ginsberg

July 2025

Indo-Pacific Defence: What, Why and How?

July 2025

Magnificent 8 of India – High-growth tech stocks in India to watch

July 2025

The nuclear revival – a new dawn for uranium investment

June 2025

ETFs are getting active – is your portfolio ready?

May 2025

Three themes shaping the future of energy and ETFs to access them

May 2025

Sharpening the Blade: How traders use leveraged and short crypto ETPs

May 2025

Practical Uses for Leveraged and Short Crypto ETPs

April 2025

Why it is not too late for European defence

April 2025

Understanding Daily Leveraged and Short ETPs

April 2025

The basics of the covered call strategy: Potential income and capital growth

March 2025

Tariffs, Tensions and the Uranium Opportunity

March 2025

What would a US withdrawal from NATO mean for European defence?

March 2025

Holding case study: Rheinmetall

March 2025

Holding case study: Bae Systems

March 2025

Three themes that are reshaping the gold market

February 2025

ETFs Are Gaining Ground Over Mutual Funds

February 2025

Europe’s sidelining by US prompts defence spending reality check

February 2025

Will Europe be forced to defend itself alone?

December 2024

Uranium 2025: Opportunities in a Structurally Undersupplied Market

December 2024

Copper 2025: The Red Metal’s Next Chapter After a Year in the Black

December 2024

Midstream Energy: Dividend Growth and Natural Gas Demand Drive 2025 Outlook

December 2024

Emerging Markets 2025: The Rise of Digital and E-Commerce Giants

December 2024

2025: A Year for Disciplined Investing in an Uncertain World

December 2024

Health care’s Comeback: Why 2025 Could Revive the Sector’s Vital Signs

December 2024

Trump and Tech: M&A Revival, Trade Shifts, and the Rise of Automation

December 2024

Bitcoin’s Year Ahead: Why 2025 Could Be a Halving Hit

December 2024

Clear skies ahead: is the travel industry poised for takeoff in 2025?

December 2024

Golden Era: Why 2025 Could Shine Bright for Gold and Miners

December 2024

Global Equities Under Trump: A New Era of Tariffs, Taxes, and Uncertainty

December 2024

Europe rearms for a world of greater geopolitical risk

November 2024

US Election 2024: The Stakes for NATO and the Defence Industry

October 2024

Do the Mag 7 have too much influence over the S&P 500?

October 2024

Investors don’t care enough about recycled gold

October 2024

The Royal Mint: A Millennium in the Making

October 2024

Currency Hedged Physical Gold ETCs FAQs

October 2024

Why would you use an ETF over a mutual fund?

October 2024

Five companies leading India’s internet boom

September 2024

Can gold shine through the market turbulence

August 2024

Taking a U-turn: the world may be ready to embrace nuclear

June 2024

AI adds to positive natural gas outlook

June 2024

Copper – the defining metal of a new age

June 2024

Trump stance will force NATO countries to spend more whether elected or not

May 2024

The great travel industry rebound

May 2024

ESG Mining – Turning a brown industry greener

May 2024

ESG and defence investing: a balancing act

May 2024

Dominant Magnificent 7 could lose ground to broader tech rally

May 2024

The fall of Russian defence spending, and the rise of NATO

April 2024

The AI Revolution – a commodities play?

April 2024

Recycled gold and traceability

April 2024

Why investors should consider defence

April 2024

Copper’s new supercycle | Fresh highs and the long-term story

April 2024

Bitcoin in 2024 – a monumental year so far

March 2024

Gold price rallies but miners need to catch up

March 2024

Investing in India’s rise – what makes India an ideal emerging market?

February 2024

Global instability – three potential ways to hedge

February 2024

Energy Transition: The Metal Elephant in the Room

January 2024

HANetf’s 2024 Outlook

December 2023

Two Ways to Invest in Low-carbon Gold

March 2023

US ETFs are not the only ETF wrapper with a tax advantage; Irish domiciled ETFs have one too!

March 2023

Making Gold sustainable with HANetf’s Recycled Gold ETC and ESG Gold Mining ETF

February 2023

Article | There is no Walt Disney Company in crypto yet…

January 2023

Gold Shining in 2023?

January 2023

HANetf 2022 wrap up and outlook for 2023: Where did the inflows go?

January 2023

Key Dates for Digital Assets in 2022

January 2023

Article | The Merge and Ethereum – what you need to know

September 2022

Article | Why small ETFs are not necessarily less liquid

February 2022

Solar Energy 101 | Understanding the Solar Energy UCITS ETF

June 2021

The Royal Mint ESG Credentials

May 2021

Six Things to Know about Investing in a Gold ETC

August 2020

The Royal Mint Physical Gold ETC (RMAU) Frequently Asked Questions

April 2020

The Importance of the Physical Gold ETC Custodian | RMAU

March 2020

Responsible Gold Bars & Physical Redemption | RMAU | The Royal Mint Physical Gold ETC

March 2020

How to Buy