Understanding Daily Leveraged and Short ETPs: A Comprehensive Guide

Daily leveraged and short Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) are investment tools designed for investors who want to amplify returns or benefit from price declines in an underlying asset. This guide will explain the mechanics, examples, and practical considerations of these ETPs.

What Are Daily Leveraged and Short ETPs?

Daily leveraged ETPs amplify the daily performance of an underlying asset by a fixed multiple, while short ETPs generate positive returns when the value of the underlying asset declines. Short ETPs can also be leveraged, meaning the daily inverse performance is amplified by a fixed multiple. These tools are often used for tactical trading rather than long-term investments due to the impact of daily compounding.

Types of Exposure

  1. Daily Leveraged Exposure (e.g., +2x, +3x): Amplifies daily gains or losses of the underlying asset.
  2. Daily Short Exposure (e.g., -1x, -2x): Gains value as the underlying asset’s value decreases, amplifying inverse daily returns.

How Do Daily Leveraged and Short ETPs Work?

Leverage Factor

The leverage factor is a key metric that determines how much the value of the ETP changes relative to the daily movement of its underlying asset. For example:

  • A +2x leveraged ETP multiplies the daily return of the underlying asset by two.
  • A -2x short ETP gains two times the daily percentage decline in the underlying asset’s value.

Here’s an example of how daily returns work:

DayUnderlying Asset Return+3x Leveraged ETP-3x Short ETP
12%6%-6%
2-1%-3%3%
33%9%-9%

 “Daily leveraged and short ETPs are designed to track the daily returns of their underlying asset, not long-term performance. Their value resets daily based on the asset’s closing price.”

Daily rebalancing and returns Divergence Over Time

Leveraged and short ETPs are designed to track the daily performance of their underlying asset with a fixed leverage factor (e.g., +2x or -2x). However, over periods longer than a day, the returns of these ETPs can diverge from the simple leverage factor of the underlying asset due to compounding effects.

Compounding occurs because the value of the ETP resets daily, and each day’s percentage change is applied to the previous day’s closing value. As a result:

  • In trending markets (either consistently up or down), compounding can amplify returns, leading to higher cumulative returns than expected.
  • In volatile or sideways markets, the daily resetting causes the cumulative return to deviate from the simple leverage factor, potentially leading to underperformance.

Consider a +2x leveraged ETP tracking an asset that alternates between +10% and -10% daily for 5 days. While the underlying asset may return close to zero over this period, the ETP’s compounded return will be negative due to the reset at each daily close.

This phenomenon makes leveraged ETPs effective for short-term trading but less predictable for longer holding periods. Users should carefully monitor market conditions and the effects of compounding when using these tools.

Example of a Sideways Market with Positive Returns

Let’s examine a sideways market where the underlying asset has a positive return after 5 days, despite experiencing losses on some individual days. When tracking this performance with a +2x leveraged ETP, the cumulative return after 5 days is 7.5%, higher than the underlying return. But that return is not exactly double the 3.9% return of the underlying asset over the 5-day period.

PeriodMetric-2x-1xUnderlying returns2x
Value Start of the Day1000100010001000
Day 1Return (%)-6-336
Value End of Day94097010301060
Day 2Return (%)42-2-4
Value End of Day977.6989.41009.41017.6
Day 3Return (%)-6-336
Value End of Day918.94959.721039.681078.66
Day 4Return (%)63-3-6
Value End of Day974.08988.511008.491013.94
Day 5Return (%)-6-336
Value End of Day915.64958.851038.751074.77
Entire 5-day periodReturn (%)-8.4-4.13.97.5

Fees not included

For the +2x leveraged ETF, although daily gains are amplified, the overall return was negative at -1.3%, showing how volatility drag impacts leveraged products even in flat markets. For the -2x short ETP, the return was also negative at -3.6%, as the daily rebalancing also amplified the effects of alternating market movements in the opposite direction.

Why Is the 2x Return Not Exactly Double?

The reason lies in daily rebalancing. Leveraged ETPs reset their leverage factor at the end of each trading day, applying the 2x multiplier to the performance of the underlying asset relative to its closing value on that day. This means:

  • On days when the underlying asset rises, the ETP amplifies the gain relative to the higher base value from the previous day.
  • On days when the underlying asset falls, the ETP amplifies the loss relative to the lower base value from the previous day.

This compounding effect causes the 2x leveraged return to diverge slightly from the expected simple multiple of the underlying asset’s cumulative return.

This example illustrates the importance of understanding how leveraged ETPs function, especially in markets with mixed or volatile daily returns.

Example of an upward trending market

Now let’s consider an upward-trending market where the underlying asset gains 3% each day over a 5-day period. This consistent growth results in a cumulative return of 15.9% for the underlying asset. However, when tracking this performance with a +2x leveraged ETP, the cumulative return is 33.8%, which is higher than double the underlying return.

PeriodMetric-2x-1xUnderlying returns2x
Value Start of the Day1000100010001000
Day 1Return (%)-6%-3%3%6%
Value End of Day94097010301060
Day 2Return (%)-6%-3%3%6%
Value End of Day883.6940.91060.91123.6
Day 3Return (%)-6%-3%3%6%
Value End of Day830.58912.671092.731191.02
Day 4Return (%)-6%-3%3%6%
Value End of Day780.75885.291125.511262.48
Day 5Return (%)-6%-3%3%6%
Value End of Day733.9858.731159.271338.23
Entire 5-day periodUnderlying Asset Leveraged Return (%)-26.60%-14.10%15.90%33.80%

Fees not included

For the +2x leveraged ETF, although daily gains are amplified, the overall return was negative at -1.3%, showing how volatility drag impacts leveraged products even in flat markets. For the -2x short ETP, the return was also negative at -3.6%, as the daily rebalancing also amplified the effects of alternating market movements in the opposite direction.

Why are the leveraged and short returns negative over the same period?

The negative returns for both leveraged and short ETPs, despite the underlying asset having a flat cumulative return, are a result of daily rebalancing and compounding effects.

  1. Daily Rebalancing:
    Each day, the leveraged ETP resets its leverage factor based on the closing value of the previous day. This means that gains and losses are calculated on a changing base value. In a volatile market, these fluctuations cause the compounding effect to erode returns.
  2. Volatility Drag:
    In markets with significant price swings, even if the underlying asset returns to its original value, the cumulative returns for leveraged ETPs can be negative because losses have a greater impact on percentage returns than equivalent gains.

This example highlights that leveraged and short ETPs can suffer in volatile or sideways markets over extended periods.

Conclusion: Leveraged and Short ETPs – A Tactical Investment Tool

Leveraged and short ETPs are powerful tools often used by investors seeking to capitalise on short-term market movements or hedge against specific risks. Their ability to amplify daily returns or provide inverse exposure makes them uniquely suited to tactical trading strategies.

However, these products come with nuances that investors must understand to use them effectively. The compounding effect of daily rebalancing can enhance returns in trending markets but may erode performance in volatile or sideways conditions. As such, these ETPs are often favoured for short-term trading or targeted market exposures rather than for holding over extended periods.

When used appropriately, leveraged and short ETPs can potentially provide significant value for experienced traders, offering dynamic exposure to a wide range of market scenarios. By carefully considering market conditions and their investment horizon, investors can potentially harness these tools to achieve targeted objectives while managing potential risks.

Risks:

Investors’ capital is at risk, and they may not recover the amount originally invested; independent advice should be sought before making any investment decision. Any decision to invest should be based on the information in the prospectus and relevant Final Terms. Cryptocurrencies can be highly volatile, and while the Underlying Assets aim to track the proposed investment objective, performance is not guaranteed by the issuer. Investing in long leveraged cryptocurrency products carries the risk of magnified losses if the daily performance declines, making them high-risk. Investors in short and leveraged ETPs should understand leverage, daily rebalancing, and compounded daily returns. If the ETP holds an Underlying Asset with a premium or discount (i.e., a difference between its market price and NAV), changes in this premium or discount may negatively impact returns. Over any period longer than a day, the compounded daily leverage return may differ—sometimes significantly—from the intended leverage factor. Investors should frequently monitor the ETP’s performance in light of their investment goals and risk tolerance and only use these ETPs if they can monitor their positions daily or intraday.

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