Published Date: January 2, 2024
Author: HANetf
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If you Rip Van Winkled yourself through the first half of 2023, one of the things you might be wondering is if the recession everyone was worried about had come and gone. You would be reading stories of a Fed pause, major equity indices hitting multi-year highs, volatility hitting multi-year lows and technology partying like it’s 1999. Reality, of course, is more complicated. One thing we did not see happening was just what the artificial intelligence rush by Open Al’s roll out of GPT-3 would do to move the virtuous circle into overdrive, even as the word still works through the transition to 5G.
While the companies grabbing headlines and higher valuations earlier in the year have been the ones responsible for the development of these platforms, that shifted abruptly with Nvidia’s (NVDA-US) first quarter earnings release in May. What is interesting is that when you read through the release, you’ll find that it was 14% YoY growth in Data Center related revenue that investors focused on instead of the YoY 38% decrease in Gaming revenue as well as a 53% decrease in its Professional Visualization business. Interestingly, automotive related revenue was up 114%, albeit on a smaller dollar base. After the Nvidia earnings release, investors began to pay attention to other names like Super Micro Computer (SMCI-US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD-US), Broadcom (AVGO-US) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) which were up 112.42%, 32.27%, 28.96%, and 48.15%, respectively, in May alone.
With an apparent Al revolution underway, we can say with confidence that the Virtuous Circle is alive and well. Regardless of what final form Al technology takes and when that final version emerges, there will be a lot of time and money spent getting there. It is our belief that we are relatively early in this Al led development and buildout phase and while this current surge will not be perpetual it will set the stage for the advancement of the Virtuous Circle. TED
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