Published date: 13th March 2026 | Author: Jake Coulson
It is no secret that we are in the midst of greater geopolitical volatility. Trade wars and real wars are becoming more frequent, and political decision making is once again the key driver for global markets. The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a turning point for European energy security, with Russia’s share of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) supply falling from 40% to 13% as of early 2026. [1] While Europe has made significant progress in diversifying away from Russian gas – increasingly relying on U.S. imports, which accounted for 57% in 2025 –[2] a new more acute crisis has emerged.
On 28 February 2026, joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a military conflict that has produced “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”[3]. Iran retaliated with attacks on regional U.S. and allied bases, Israeli territory, and other Gulf States, while its Revolutionary Guard issued warnings prohibiting the flow of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz – through which approximately 20% of global daily oil supply and LNG normally transit – bringing commercial tanker traffic to a near standstill. Compounding this disruption, an Iranian attack on Qatar Energy’s Ras Laffan facility on 2 March forced an immediate shutdown of production, with the company temporarily relinquishing its LNG supply obligations.[4] As a result, European gas prices rose by as much as 45% in under a week.[5]
Europe entered this crisis from a position of weakness. 2025 LNG stores across the continent were far below 2023 and 2024 peaks at 62.5%,[6] meaning it was already being planned that imports would have to increase to support current levels. Europe’s hard-won diversification away from Russia has, in part, been replaced by a dependence on seaborne delivery, that are themselves susceptible to geo-political shock. The urgency of the policies outlined, are rarely more apparent.
The graph below shows European dependence on natural gas imports.
*Y-axis shows an index of EU import prices for energy products where 2021=100, so values show percentage change relative to the 2021 average
Source: Eurostat database (Comext) and Eurostat estimates. For illustrative purposes only. Data as of: December 2025
As Europe seeks to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and improve energy security, nuclear energy is increasingly recognised as a critical solution for governments. Nuclear energy helps stabilise grid power through its fuel efficiency and the fact that most nuclear sites hold between 12-24 months of fuel on site, helps potentially mitigate the negative effects of supply chain disruptions. Many European countries are beginning to expand their nuclear energy capabilities, restart closed reactors, and invest in next-generation technologies such as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
France has long relied on nuclear power for over 70% of its electricity capacity.[7] In response to energy security concerns, France has begun expanding its nuclear generation even further. The ‘France 2030’ plan allocates €1 billion to develop SMRs by 2030.[8] France’s reliance on nuclear power significantly contributes to its energy independence, a policy of significant importance in the current geopolitical landscape.
The United Kingdom has also emphasised the importance of nuclear energy. As part of its energy strategy, the government has committed to provide 25% of expected electricity demand through nuclear power by 2050.[9] Construction is ongoing at two large scale reactors – Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C – aimed at reducing the UK’s reliance on imported energy. SMRs are also part of the UK’s plan; however, current priorities are focusing on the larger-scale sites.
Surprisingly, Germany has also begun to reconsider its stance on nuclear energy as a source of secure energy. Following the Fukushima accident in 2011, Germany like many other states, sought to phase out nuclear energy, but the conflict in Ukraine has forced the government to reconsider this stance. Following the invasion, the German government extended the operational life of its remaining reactors until April 2023 to limit the negative effects on the ensuing energy crisis. This expansion opened the door for debate about nuclear power, and as of May 2025, Germany considers nuclear power comparable to renewables for energy security purposes.[10]
Other nations across Europe are considering nuclear power’s role in energy security and decarbonisation: Italy’s Environment and Energy Security Minister said in May 2025 that he is convinced Italy will have nuclear power by 2030; as of May 2025, Denmark is considering an end to its 40-year ban on nuclear power; Belgium’s parliament voted to abandon plans to phase out nuclear power. And Spain has seen a resurrection of debate following a blackout in April 2025, which could lead to extensions on nuclear power beyond 2035.[11]
Renewable energy sources remain crucial for European energy security. In 2025, renewable energy represented 25% of total energy consumed in the EU.[12] Since then, a number of initiatives have been agreed to increase this number over the coming years. For instance, North Sea countries, including the UK, agreed to the ‘Hamburg Declaration’ in January 2026, aiming to deliver 300GW of offshore wind energy by 2050.[13] In January 2026, Germany and Denmark approved the ‘Bornholm Energy Island’ project to distribute offshore wind power.[14]
While European plans to accelerate decarbonisation and renewable usage are admirable. There are considerable barriers to development. Currently, China has a near monopoly on critical raw material exports to Europe, creating a dependency very susceptible to political or economic shock.
The European Commission is accelerating EU-relevant projects by de-risking investments and fast tracking permitting. The EU will mobilise €3 billion over the next year to projects that can provide alternative supplies.[15] While a short-term fix, the existence of these improvements is emblematic of the policy attention resource procurement is receiving.
Additionally, the EU is planning to deepen cooperation with geographically diverse and resource rich regions. The EU has launched negotiations with Brazil and is welcoming Canadian investment opportunities. By diversifying supply chains, Europe aims to reduce dependence and increase capacity to produce renewable energy.
One example of a material critical to Europe’s energy security is copper. European copper demand is estimated to increase 35% from 2020 to 2050,[16] driven in part by demand for wind turbines, solar panels, heat pumps, and electric vehicles. Meeting global electrification goals will require 115% more copper to be mined in the next 30 years than has been in all of human history.[17]
This supply-demand imbalance is being monitored closely by market participants. Copper demand could surge to 42 million tonnes by 2040.[18] The planned infrastructure upgrades highlight this narrative further; anticipated investment into Europe will total hundreds of billions of Euros, each megawatt of capacity requiring substantial copper.
Copper’s role extends beyond grid improvements. An electric vehicle requires 260% more copper than a traditional combustion engine vehicle.[19] Renewable energy infrastructure like wind farms and solar power require upwards of 7 times more copper than fossil fuel-based alternatives.[20] When Europe commits to the Hamburg Declaration of 300GW wind target or France’s expanded nuclear infrastructure, miners of copper will be direct beneficiaries of long-term contracts.
While this renewed emphasis on nuclear power is of benefit to Europe, there must be equal emphasis placed on the infrastructure to secure energy across the region. Investment is being focused on closing the significant funding gap through a combination of public and private capital. To do this, several large-scale projects have been established. NextGenerationEU and InvestEU programmes will mobilise close to €1 trillion in funds to support green and digital transitions to substantiate rhetoric surrounding renewable and nuclear power production.[21][22]
Europe is working to create a more resilient supply chain. And the below graph illustrates the percentage of organisations that have invested in nearshoring most of their manufacturing or production.
Source: Aberdeen Investments, Capgemini. For illustrative purposes only. Data as of: 04.07.2025
The durability of an investment in European infrastructure, copper mining or uranium mining is predicated on geopolitical reality rather than environmental optimism. Previous periods of motivation were focussed on the environmental benefits but suffered with economic downturns and political apathy. The current evolution is driven by energy security and independence from adversaries. Germany’s €500 billion commitment, and the UK’s construction of nuclear power plants reflects a recognition that energy security is a national security vulnerability. During a period of heightened tensions such as the current one, security is a priority that can provide a solid foundation far more resilient than previous motivations.
The convergence of geopolitical tensions, nuclear renaissance, and infrastructure investment has created a rare case of policy alignment and capital investment. For investors, this translates into four distinct opportunities.
The Making Europe Great Again UCITS ETF (GR8) is potentially well placed to benefit from this renewed emphasis on energy security. The fund’s European focus seeks to capture infrastructure improvements, and policy tailwinds. National commitments like Germany’s €500 billion injection and transnational agreements like the Hamburg Declaration create visibility that extends beyond 2050.
The engineering companies, equipment manufacturers, and construction companies are all essential for European infrastructure improvements. The fund’s policy sensitivity may be of benefit to investors, because of the medium- and long-term horizons of Europe’s outlook.
Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF (URNM) and Sprott Junior Uranium Miners UCITS ETF (URNJ) may stand to benefit from increased European investment in nuclear energy. Following years of underinvestment during the nuclear phase out, immediate demand is outpacing current supply. Reactor restarts and life span extensions require immediate supply, and the construction of new reactors. All of this means that current uranium inventories are being depleted, and uranium miners stand to benefit from this.
A distinguishing feature of both URNM and URNJ is their direct allocation to physical uranium, which provides additional benefits beyond pure mining equity exposure. While mining stocks can be affected by company specific issues such as regulatory delays and or project overspends, the physical uranium holdings respond to the spot price of the underlying commodity tied to the supply-demand fundamentals of the uranium market itself, thus providing some drawdown protection.
The Sprott Physical Uranium ETC (SPUT) may also stand to be of benefit to investors by offering exposure to physical uranium without the operational risks associated with the miners. To achieve this the ETC holds the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, which holds physical stock of uranium oxide in secure facilities across three different providers.
The Sprott Pure Play Copper Miners UCITS ETF (CPPR) provides targeted exposure to copper miners and stands to benefit as energy transition metals become increasingly crucial to European energy security. Copper is essential in every aspect of power grids, and the machinery required for clean energy and in each electric vehicle manufactured. As well as offering pure play exposure to copper mining companies, the fund also has access to the Sprott Physical Copper trust, this dual exposure to both the price of the underlying commodity and copper mining equities aims to reduce the potential performance contraction associated with traditional products.
Key Risks
GR8:
URMN and URNJ:
SPUT:
CPPR:
[1] https://en.highnorthnews.com/politics/eu-approves-russian-gas-ban-in-decisive-break-with-moscow-including-arctic-lng/1101094#:~:text=New%20overreliance%20on%20US%20LNG,cent%20before%20the%20Ukraine%20war.&text=The%20EU%20has%20diversified%20its,on%20a%20single%20external%20supplier.
[2] [2] https://ieefa.org/resources/eu-risks-new-energy-dependence-us-could-supply-80-its-lng-imports-2030#:~:text=EU%20imports%20of%20US%20LNG,from%20the%20US%20in%202025.
[3] cfr.org/articles/how-the-iran-war-ignited-a-geoeconomic-firestorm#:~:text=The%20Narrow%20Strait%20That%20Broke%20the%20Global%20Energy%20Market&text=In%20just%20over%20two%20weeks,of%20the%20global%20oil%20market.
[4]https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/MediaCenter/Pages/newsdetails.aspx?ItemId=3892#:~:text=Due%20to%20military%20attacks%20on,(LNG)%20and%20associated%20products.
[5] https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/european-gas-prices-jump-much-133612129.html
[6] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/gas-storage-capacity/#0
[7] https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france
[8] https://onu-vienne.delegfrance.org/Nuclear-power-and-SMR-are-central-to-the-France-2030-investment-plan#:~:text=The%20%22France%202030%22%20plan%20is%20a%20large,the%20goal%20of%20small%2C%20innovative%20nuclear%20reactors.
[9] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61010605#:~:text=The%20government%20announced%20that%20a,could%20my%20energy%20bills%20go?
[10] https://www.ft.com/content/e99efa2b-338a-4065-89c6-0683d5759ed7
[11] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/27/europe-pivots-back-to-nuclear-in-pursuit-of-more-energy-independence.html
[12] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Renewable_energy_statistics
[13] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-europe-sign-historic-pact-to-drive-clean-energy-future
[14] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/denmark-germany-agree-bornholm-energy-island-wind-project-2026-01-26/
[15] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_2891
[16] https://hanetf.com/fund/cppr-sprott-pure-play-copper-miners-etf/
[17] https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/mining-metals/coppers-role-in-the-energy-transition-grows-as-demand-surges
[18] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-surges-in-unsustainable-rally-joining-silver-and-gold-in-2026-metals-frenzy-144259758.html
[19] https://internationalcopper.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2017.06-E-Mobility-Factsheet-1.pdf
[20] https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/mining-metals/coppers-role-in-the-energy-transition-grows-as-demand-surges
[21] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/ngeu-covid-19-recovery-package/#:~:text=Total:%20%E2%82%AC750%20billion,Total%20grants:%20%E2%82%AC312.5%20billion
[22] https://investeu.europa.eu/investeu-programme/investeu-fund/about-investeu-fund/how-does-fund-work_en#:~:text=The%20InvestEU%20Fund%20is%20expected,and%20skills:%20%E2%82%AC2.8%20billion
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