Published date: 14th August 2025 | Author: Sean Dranfield, CEO – PT Asset Management
Global bond markets have experienced notable volatility to start 2025, particularly following President Trump’s tariff announcements on Liberation Day. Concerns around the fiscal deficit and inflation expectations have led to continued volatility, even as tariff negotiations occur. This volatility is something of interest for us to examine, particularly within our Interest Rate Offense sectors.
Tax-Exempt Municipal Bonds
U.S. Treasuries
The 20-year Treasury was reintroduced in 2020. Since its reintroduction, it has typically yielded as much if not more than the 30-year Treasury because it is somewhat regarded as the “ugly stepchild” to the more favoured 10-year and 30-year bonds. While we currently favour the return potential found at the 20-year spot on the curve to the 30-year, we can use the 30-year Treasury’s longer history to illustrate relative attractiveness representing the long-end of the Treasury curve.
Taxable Municipal Bonds
A key principle of Shape Management is to combine bonds with complementary characteristics in a portfolio. We consider bonds that are more interest rate sensitive to be “offense” for our portfolios. With high yields and steep, attractive slopes, some of our favourite forms of offense are among the most attractive levels seen in years.
In fact, over the last 20 years the S&P 500 has averaged a roughly 8.5% annualised return.
If rates fell moderately over the next 3 years, roughly 50 basis points a year – less than the average intra-year swing – the potential return for these bonds is in excess of 8.5%. The opportunity in our favoured Interest Rate Offense presents equity-like return potential for high quality, AA-rated bonds if rates fall moderately.
Performance Trust Total Return Bond UCITS ETF (PTAM) aims to provide exposure to U.S. bonds, while employing PT Asset Management’s Shape Management methodology to target long-term performance and consistent growth across both rising and falling rate environments.
Shape Management is an investment process that addresses these shortcomings by analysing the risk-return profile of a bond’s future cashflow.
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