Published Date: November 21, 2024
| Author: Eric Strand, Founder and CEO, AuAg Funds
Authors’ views are their own and not those of HANetf.
We foresaw a sequence of new all-time highs for gold in 2024, which we also got. The October all-time high was 2,790 USD per troy ounce signaling that the new long-term bull market has begun.
Also, we projected that gold would end 2024 with at least a 20 per cent increase in USD and anticipated, at the same time, that mining stocks would surpass the actual commodity in performance.
That gave us the target of 2,475 USD, but as the gold price formally flew through that number, we later had to raise our target to 2,750.
After the 2,790 high we have seen gold cool down to the 2,550 area which leaves room for a strong finish up to 2,750 again.
The cooling down of the gold price has been the result of the market “believing” that the new president of the USA will be able to lower their national debt.
We, however, do not believe that. We believe government costs may become lower but so will also income. All together resulting in a net deficit just like the last term Donald Trump was president. Actually, M2 (money supply) and national debt has grown in a similar rising pace regardless of republicans or democrats in the driver seat. Gold had a first down reaction when Donald Trump was elected last time and then after that gold still returned over 50 per cent during the 4 years presidency.
We think we will see an inflationary boom in the coming years. An economic environment where commodities will thrive.
There will be more US tariffs and global trade wars. US policies will result in higher unemployment, forcing much lower rates and we will also see devaluations in many other countries to compensate for the tariffs.
A new future, with continued de-globalistaion and “MeFirst-mentality”, will also create geopolitical tensions and higher production costs in most sectors passed over to consumers.
The competition between fossil fuels and new energy will however keep energy prices low. Yes, this will have a small deflationary effect, but it will especially benefit companies that use a lot of energy in their production, like miners.
We also anticipate silver to come back really strong and narrow the GSR (GoldSilverRatio) to at least the 70-80 area. Long term we predict that the GSR will drop below 30:1, setting an initial goal for 2025 slightly below 70:1.
The above view and factors give us a target for silver around 50 USD per troy ounce, making it even more interesting than gold.
Our belief that central banks would shift away from rate hikes and adopt a more accommodative policy stance in 2024, came true and we foresee even more aggressive rate cuts during 2025.
Since the great financial crisis, central banks have consistently increased their gold reserves, setting new records in both 2022, 2023 and 2024. 2025 does not look to become any different.
The really big driver for returns in the mining sector will be explosive margin expansions.
High and stable commodity prices, inflationary policies all over the world and at the same time low energy prices are a perfect storm for miners.
Since 2021, companies in the commodity sector have sustained robust cash flows, with precious metal producers boasting the highest margins.
The margins came down with the high-inflation period which has created this very exciting situation with amazing margin expansions coming.
Professional investors only. Capital at risk.
Sources available upon request
AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETF (ESGO) aims to provide exposure to an equal-weighted basket of 25 ESG screened companies that are active in the gold mining industry.
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