Published Date: March 12, 2025 | Author: Jacob White
The uranium spot price and uranium miners have experienced a notable decline following the start of President Trump’s second term. While this performance has been frustrating, it is important to separate the intense market noise from the longer-term fundamental picture, which remains clear.
An unprecedented level of policy uncertainty created by the new U.S. administration has paralyzed utilities and investors, forcing them to the sidelines. Market participants are in a “wait and see” mode after being hit with a barrage of uncertainty related to tariffs, geopolitical trade tensions, potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Loan Program Office (LPO) and thawing relations between President Trump and Putin.
The central source of uncertainty has been the frequent changes and delays in the Trump administration’s tariff policies, which has distracted utilities from normal procurement activities.
The constant shifting of deadlines and specifics has kept utilities in a holding pattern, awaiting clarity. Although the direct financial impact of a tariff or export tax may be minimized in some cases, thanks to swaps or book transfers, nuclear fuel supply chains will undoubtedly be disturbed, creating further distraction and higher costs for utilities and end customers.
Canada is the largest foreign supplier of uranium to the United States, accounting for roughly 27% of total deliveries, and plays a critical role in conversion.12 In response to a previous 25% tariff placed on Canadian steel in 2018, Cameco Corp., the world’s largest publicly traded uranium company and a Canadian-based company inserted clauses in its contracts stipulating that if U.S. tariffs are imposed, the cost burden will fall on utilities rather than Cameco itself.
Notably, there is also the possibility of a Canadian export tax on uranium. If enacted, this will also be passed along to U.S. utilities, further increasing their potential cost burden for imported uranium fuel. This scenario may provide a competitive edge to U.S. uranium producers as U.S. utilities seek ways to avoid unpredictable and mounting fees on foreign-sourced material.
The Trump administration’s international relations mark a stark change to historical U.S. foreign policy. Trump is directly engaging with Putin and fostering a warmer relationship with Russia, and utilities are weighing the possibility of relaxing sanctions/allowing waivers to resume, giving them the ability to resume importing Russian-enriched uranium.
Russia has roughly 44% of the world’s uranium enrichment capacity and, before the following recent developments, was a significant supplier of U.S. nuclear fuel.13 However, there is currently legislation (the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act) in the U.S. that limits and phases out the total amount of Russian-enriched uranium imports per year, with zero enriched uranium allowed starting on January 1, 2028. Further, in a “tit-for-tat” response, Russia placed an export ban on enriched uranium to the U.S. in November 2024.14
The possibility of reversing the export ban and/or the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act has created further ambiguity for the nuclear fuel market and contributed to reducing uranium purchases. The likelihood of these reversals may be dubious, especially for the Prohibiting Uranium Imports Act, considering that this Act has passed into law (though laws may be changed) and that this may be contrary to national security and the need to reshore the supply chain on uranium enrichment. The U.S. has gone from the world’s dominant uranium enricher to having zero domestically owned enrichment capacity (Figure 1), and if the pivot back to Russia was allowed, additional investments in U.S. capacity, like Orano’s new facility in Tennessee, could be in jeopardy.
Source: 2022 data from World Nuclear Association Nuclear Fuel Report 2023. 1985 data from the Congressional Budget Office. Centrus Energy Corp. * The only remaining enrichment plant physically located in the U.S. is controlled by URENCO, a European-owned corporation.
In February, President Trump stated that he wanted to restart denuclearization talks with Russia and China, aimed at cutting defense spending, which introduced another layer of uncertainty into the uranium market. The prospect of a renewed “Megatons to Megawatts” program sparked speculation that new downblending of weapons-grade uranium into reactor fuel might materialize. Although the idea of a second iteration of this arrangement is highly improbable under current geopolitical conditions, even the notion of such talks is enough to distract market participants. In the original Megatons to Megawatts program, highly enriched uranium from dismantled Russian nuclear warheads was converted into low-enriched uranium for use in civilian nuclear reactors, significantly affecting global uranium supply at the time.
In practical terms, we believe this is extremely unrealistic, given the current geopolitical climate and lower stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. Nevertheless, the mere possibility has been a distraction, adding to the myriad factors already weighing on investor sentiment.
While the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Loan Program Office (LPO) have provided meaningful support for U.S. nuclear energy, recent speculation suggests the Trump administration might consider cutting or repurposing these funding sources. However, we believe a revocation of these programs for nuclear energy is unlikely given Trump’s consistently pro-nuclear stance and action to “Unleash Commercial Nuclear Power in the U.S.”.15 Nonetheless, the tariff and foreign relations policy uncertainty, along with the mere possibility of losing key financial support, has been enough to provide a distraction to market participants in the near term.
Despite the near-term policy noise and tariff-related uncertainties, the underlying fundamentals of the uranium market continue to support a strong long-term outlook.
The uranium market has grappled with underinvestment in new production for years, leaving a structural deficit as global nuclear power demand continues to expand. Another key indicator is the level of term contracting by utilities; in 2024, total term contracting concluded at 116 million pounds, representing a notable 29% decline, from the 161 million pounds contracted in 2023.16 However, these figures can be somewhat misleading due to the influence of individual, large-scale agreements. In 2023, a major contract with Ukraine bolstered the overall volume, while in 2024, a single contract with China accounted for nearly 40% of the total. This concentration demonstrates that Western utilities have lagged behind in securing future supply.
A more pressing concern for the uranium market is that these volumes fall well below the annual global reactor demand for uranium, estimated at approximately 175 million pounds—highlighting a clear trend of under-replacement contracting (Figure 2). U.S. utilities alone fell short by 17 million pounds, securing barely two-thirds of the uranium needed to meet their forward requirements. This shortfall is further intensified by already tight inventory levels in many Western markets, where available-for-sale supplies have been largely depleted.
While some utilities may choose to delay or defer new term contracts due to policy uncertainties, such caution can only last for so long. Eventually, utilities will need to secure sufficient fuel to meet operational demands, creating upward pressure on uranium prices once there is greater clarity in the operating environment. These dynamics underscore that, despite short-term headwinds, the fundamental supply-demand picture for uranium remains supportive.
Source: UxC, LLC for Utility Long-Term Contracting volume. World Nuclear Association for World Reactor Requirements.
The uranium market is grappling with short-term volatility driven primarily by policy uncertainty and forced selling. It is important to recognize that commodity markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, and short-term uncertainty often clouds the intact underlying fundamentals, anchored by a persistent supply deficit and increasing global reliance on nuclear power. We believe today’s price weakness presents a potentially attractive entry opportunity for investors who appreciate the strategic value of uranium and can weather near-term turbulence. As clarity emerges on tariffs, Russian imports, and U.S. nuclear funding support, utilities are bound to return, and the market is likely to refocus on the core imbalance between future demand and constrained supply.
Note: A “bull market” refers to a condition of financial markets where prices generally rise. A “bear market” refers to a condition of financial markets in which prices are generally falling. Source: TradeTech Data as of 2/28/2025. TradeTech is the leading independent provider of uranium prices and nuclear fuel market information. The uranium prices in this chart dating back to 1968 are sourced exclusively from TradeTech; visit https://www.uranium.info/.
1 The U3O8 uranium spot price is measured by a proprietary composite of U3O8 spot prices from UxC, S&P Platts and Numerco. 2 The North Shore Global Uranium Mining Index (URNMX) was created by North Shore Indices, Inc. (the “Index Provider”). The Index Provider developed the methodology for determining the securities to be included in the Index and is responsible for the ongoing maintenance of the Index. The Index is calculated by Indxx, LLC, which is not affiliated with the North Shore Global Uranium Miners Fund (“Existing Fund”), ALPS Advisors, Inc. (the “Sub-Adviser”) or Sprott Asset Management LP (the “Adviser”). 3 The Nasdaq Sprott Junior Uranium Miners™ Index (NSURNJ™) was co-developed by Nasdaq® (the “Index Provider”) and Sprott Asset Management LP (the “Adviser”). The Index Provider and Adviser co-developed the methodology for determining the securities to be included in the Index and the Index Provider is responsible for the ongoing maintenance of the Index. 4 The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price index that tracks prices of futures contracts on physical commodities, and is designed to minimize concentration in any one commodity or sector. It currently has 23 commodity futures in six sectors. 5 The S&P 500 or Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. 6 Source: CNN Business, 1/21/2025; Trump threatens 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Feb. 1, punting Day 1 pledge. 7 Source: The White House, 2/1/2025; Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico and China. 8 Source: White & Case, 3/4/2025; US Tariffs on Canada and Mexico Enter into Effect; Tariff on China Rises from 10% to 20%. 9 Source: CNN Business, 1/21/2025; Tariffs on cars from Mexico and Canada delayed by one month. 10 Source: Reuters, 3/7/2025; Trump delays tariffs for goods under Mexico, Canada trade deal. 11 Source: CTVNews. 3/6/2025; ‘Pressure stays on:’ Feds keep counter-measures but delay second round of retaliation against Trump tariff. 12 Source: EIA.gov, June 2024; 2023 Uranium Marketing Annual Report. 13 Source: Energy.gov, 5/14/2024; Russian Uranium Ban Will Speed up Development of U.S. Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain. 14 Source: World Nuclear News, 11/18/2024; Russia places ‘tit-for-tat’ ban on US uranium exports. 15 Source: Energy.gov, 2/5/2025: Secretary Wright Acts to “Unleash Golden Era of American Energy Dominance”. 16 UxC, LLC, 2024 Uranium Term Contracting Review, 02/17/2025.
Four key drivers behind copper’s growth opportunity
September 2026
Three things investors should consider before investing in uranium ETFs
The Merits of Bottom-Up Investing
El Niño’s ripple effects: How a strengthening pacific pattern is moving different asset classes
August 2026
The forces shaping crypto’s next move
Buried Treasure: How Geopolitical Relief Could Unearth Mining Gains
Canada beyond the headlines: the case for energy, financials, and real estate
Beyond a Chatbot: How can emerging-market platforms monetise AI?
July 2026
Lloyd Capital Outlook
Mag 7 to Lag 7: What a tech stumble says about the potential risks of investing in major indices
Natural Gas – growing source of global energy and uncertainty
What is the cost of rebuilding Ukraine?
June 2026
Why are central banks buying what they once sold?
Defence 2.0: How Drones and Cyber are reshaping investments
What investors should consider before investing in Defence ETFs in 2026
Copper’s role in the world has shifted
The quest for the perfect business
How memory is the AI bottleneck
What does AI mean for cyber defence?
Do drones mean the death of defence primes?
Computing’s next big disruption is already here
May 2026
Why can’t silver supply keep up with demand?
How much will the US military spend on drones?
What does the Iran war mean for travel and North American energy?
April 2026
Navigating geopolitics, energy security and structural demand
Global Instability and the Future of European Energy Security
Canada has what the world needs
March 2026
Ukraine could become the West’s solution for rearmament
Iran crisis – four sectors to keep on your radar
From tanks to code: why the next defence boom will be digital
February 2026
Why cybersecurity and defence may be complementary themes?
Preferred shares and outlook for months ahead
Next stop for global travel
The new nuclear age – why physical uranium matters now
Critical Commodities for 2026
Reconciling responsibility with rearmament
January 2026
The New Age of Tech | Tech Megatrend Outlook 2026
The Future of Emerging Markets: 2026 Market Outlook
Shape of the Markets by PT Asset Management
October 2025
Nuclear Energy – why uranium is back in favour
September 2025
Copper’s less known demand driver: defence
Indo-Pacific Rearmament: How much will defence budgets grow by 2030?
How gold is custodied and why it should matter to investors
Travel in 2025 – strong data drives growth
August 2025
Understanding covered call ETFs
Different approaches to covered call ETFs
The opportunity presented by volatility
Heightened demand for defence in the pacific region
Three drivers of the health care sector in 2025
Equal weighted tech – an interview with Anthony Ginsberg
July 2025
Indo-Pacific Defence: What, Why and How?
Magnificent 8 of India – High-growth tech stocks in India to watch
The nuclear revival – a new dawn for uranium investment
June 2025
ETFs are getting active – is your portfolio ready?
May 2025
Three themes shaping the future of energy and ETFs to access them
Sharpening the Blade: How traders use leveraged and short crypto ETPs
Practical Uses for Leveraged and Short Crypto ETPs
April 2025
Why it is not too late for European defence
Understanding Daily Leveraged and Short ETPs
The basics of the covered call strategy: Potential income and capital growth
March 2025
What would a US withdrawal from NATO mean for European defence?
Holding case study: Rheinmetall
Holding case study: Bae Systems
Three themes that are reshaping the gold market
February 2025
ETFs Are Gaining Ground Over Mutual Funds
Europe’s sidelining by US prompts defence spending reality check
Will Europe be forced to defend itself alone?
December 2024
Uranium 2025: Opportunities in a Structurally Undersupplied Market
Copper 2025: The Red Metal’s Next Chapter After a Year in the Black
Midstream Energy: Dividend Growth and Natural Gas Demand Drive 2025 Outlook
Emerging Markets 2025: The Rise of Digital and E-Commerce Giants
2025: A Year for Disciplined Investing in an Uncertain World
Health care’s Comeback: Why 2025 Could Revive the Sector’s Vital Signs
Trump and Tech: M&A Revival, Trade Shifts, and the Rise of Automation
Bitcoin’s Year Ahead: Why 2025 Could Be a Halving Hit
Clear skies ahead: is the travel industry poised for takeoff in 2025?
Golden Era: Why 2025 Could Shine Bright for Gold and Miners
Global Equities Under Trump: A New Era of Tariffs, Taxes, and Uncertainty
Europe rearms for a world of greater geopolitical risk
November 2024
US Election 2024: The Stakes for NATO and the Defence Industry
October 2024
Do the Mag 7 have too much influence over the S&P 500?
Investors don’t care enough about recycled gold
The Royal Mint: A Millennium in the Making
Currency Hedged Physical Gold ETCs FAQs
Why would you use an ETF over a mutual fund?
Five companies leading India’s internet boom
September 2024
Can gold shine through the market turbulence
August 2024
Taking a U-turn: the world may be ready to embrace nuclear
June 2024
AI adds to positive natural gas outlook
Copper – the defining metal of a new age
Trump stance will force NATO countries to spend more whether elected or not
May 2024
The great travel industry rebound
ESG Mining – Turning a brown industry greener
ESG and defence investing: a balancing act
Dominant Magnificent 7 could lose ground to broader tech rally
The fall of Russian defence spending, and the rise of NATO
April 2024
The AI Revolution – a commodities play?
Recycled gold and traceability
Why investors should consider defence
Copper’s new supercycle | Fresh highs and the long-term story
Bitcoin in 2024 – a monumental year so far
March 2024
Gold price rallies but miners need to catch up
Investing in India’s rise – what makes India an ideal emerging market?
February 2024
Global instability – three potential ways to hedge
Energy Transition: The Metal Elephant in the Room
January 2024
HANetf’s 2024 Outlook
December 2023
Two Ways to Invest in Low-carbon Gold
March 2023
US ETFs are not the only ETF wrapper with a tax advantage; Irish domiciled ETFs have one too!
Making Gold sustainable with HANetf’s Recycled Gold ETC and ESG Gold Mining ETF
February 2023
Article | There is no Walt Disney Company in crypto yet…
January 2023
Gold Shining in 2023?
HANetf 2022 wrap up and outlook for 2023: Where did the inflows go?
Key Dates for Digital Assets in 2022
Article | The Merge and Ethereum – what you need to know
September 2022
Article | Why small ETFs are not necessarily less liquid
February 2022
Solar Energy 101 | Understanding the Solar Energy UCITS ETF
June 2021
The Royal Mint ESG Credentials
May 2021
Six Things to Know about Investing in a Gold ETC
August 2020
The Royal Mint Physical Gold ETC (RMAU) Frequently Asked Questions
April 2020
The Importance of the Physical Gold ETC Custodian | RMAU
March 2020
Responsible Gold Bars & Physical Redemption | RMAU | The Royal Mint Physical Gold ETC
Select Your Country
Select Your Investor Type
Choose a brokerage
Choose a product
You are now leaving HANetf's website and accessing a third-party website. HANetf may provide access to information, products, or services offered on websites that are owned or operated by other companies ("third-party websites"). We provide this access through the use of hyperlinks that automatically move you from a HANetf website to the third-party site.
While we do our best to provide you with helpful, trustworthy resources, HANetf cannot endorse, approve, or guarantee information, products, services, or recommendations provided at a third-party website. Since we may not always know when information on a linked site changes, HANetf is not responsible for the content or accuracy of any third-party website. HANetf shall not be responsible for any loss or damage of any sort resulting from the use of a link on its websites nor will it be liable for any failure of products or services advertised or provided on these linked sites.
HANetf offers you links on an "as is" basis. When you visit a third-party website by using a link on a HANetf site, you will no longer be protected by the HANetf privacy policy or security practices. The data collection, use, and protection practices of the linked site may differ from the practices of HANetf sites. You should familiarize yourself with the privacy policy and security practices of the linked website. Those are the policies and practices that will apply to your use of the linked website, not the HANetf policies and practices.
Here are some tips to help you tell if you have left a HANetf website:
Important Notice: HANetf is a provider of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Exchange Traded Commodities (ETCs). We do not sell investment products directly to individual investors. Our funds are available through regulated investment platforms and brokers. Our only official website is www.hanetf.com. Any other domain is not affiliated with or authorised by HANetf in any way. If you suspect fraudulent activity, please contact your local financial regulator and/or the police and report the website or individual involved.