Published Date: August 6, 2025
Author: HANetf
The gold price had a positive year in 2024, with the trend of reaching new all-time highs remaining strong. This occurred during a period when the US dollar was strong relative to other fiat currencies, such as the euro and the Swedish krona.
In our Outlook 2024, We set a target price of $2,475 per troy ounce and projected a +20% increase in USD. The outcome exceeded expectations, with gold ending the year at $2,624, a rise of +27.2%. In EUR and SEK, the increase was an impressive +35.6% and +39.5%, respectively.
In our Outlook 2025, we foresee a significantly higher gold price throughout the year, ranging from $3,000 to $3,300. Several major banks have begun releasing their Outlooks for 2025, predicting a gold price around $3,000 (+14.3%), and as mentioned, we wouldn’t be surprised if it reached as high as $3,300 (+25.7%).
Silver had a particularly strong first half of the year. During that time, the GSR (Gold-Silver Ratio) dropped below 74:1. In our Outlook for 2024, we had expected this strength to persist throughout the year, but we saw a peak at the end of October at $34.8. The subsequent correction brought silver to $28.9 by year-end, a +21.4% increase. In EUR and SEK, the gains were slightly higher, at +29.5% and +33.3%, respectively.
In our outlook for 2025, we anticipate silver gaining momentum once again, with the GSR moving from today’s level of 90:1 to below 70:1. This could lead to a remarkable year for silver, with prices exceeding $40 and potentially reaching up to $50 per troy ounce.
Mining companies have been volatile as algorithmic trading targeted the sector for both short and long positions, driven by employment, inflation reports, and interest rate announcements. Sentiment is currently low, creating a favorable starting position as capital inflows into the sector are expected to grow both larger and more stable. The ETF returned -8.59% in December.
Cost increases for the companies have slowed, which, combined with relatively low energy prices, benefits their results. At the same time, the companies are enjoying strong cash flows, low valuation multiples, and significantly increased margins. Furthermore, commodity prices are now significantly higher than in recent years and remain at a relatively stable level. In our Outlook for 2025, we will provide further insights into the mining sector.
AuAg Macro – Monetary Inflation: The U.S. has once again reached its so-called debt ceiling, which could lead to partial government shutdowns due to the lack of funding. As usual, after some political wrangling, a higher debt ceiling will likely be approved, creating room to borrow more to finance the ongoing deficit. The money printers will thus be back in action as soon as the ceiling is raised.
We look forward to following fiat currency developments in the upcoming currency wars, which could become a major event in 2025. Has the dollar peaked? Will BRICS nations dare to challenge Trump’s threats against those using alternatives to the dollar in global trade? Or will the dollar strengthen as other nations devalue their currencies?
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Sources available upon request.
ESG Gold ETF Performance As of 31/12/2024
ESGO (Fund)VGLD30EN (Index)1M32.88%33.02%3M9.97%10.17%6M-14.37%-12.51%YTD15.48%18.20%12M52.69%56.81%3Y224.13%238.13%Since Inception (02/07/2021)175.69%191.41%
Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31.08.2026
Performance before inception is based on back-tested data. Backtesting is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such a strategy would have been. Back-tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk.
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