Published Date: May 1, 2026
Author: HANetf
European HALO Stocks See Resurgence – Europe, once maligned for being overlooked in the tech boom, is now being reframed as investors rethink AI risk. The hunt for “heavy asset, low obsolescence” or HALO companies is on as investors address the risk of AI disruption. Europe’s ubiquitous asset-heavy industries left it unloved in the recent asset-light era. But capital is once again flowing into sectors perceived as structurally insulated from rapid technological advancements. The sector exposures in Making Europe Great Again: Energy, Infrastructure, Nearshoring, and Defence align well with the so-called HALO trade. The Making Europe Great Again Index is up +13% YTD vs -4% for the VettaFi Developed Europe Index.[1] Capital rotation out of higher-risk growth stocks and into traditional defensives is typical in periods of uncertainty. But, as concerns mount around AI’s potential ability to displace entire industries, investors are searching for less fully priced options. The Iran war has dealt an early blow to the HALO trade, with many capital-intensive businesses negatively impacted by higher oil prices. Nevertheless, Europe’s heavy-asset firms remain up for the year, with energy stocks up +41%, utilities up +13%, and mining stocks +4% higher. Technology stocks, meanwhile, are down around -2%. Norwegian energy company Equinor is the best-performing member of the Making Europe Great Again Index so far this year, up +86%, while Var Energi and Kongsberg Gruppen were up +67% and +63% respectively over the same time period.[2]
Europe Digging in Heels on Iran War – In a display of European autonomy and cooperation, leaders across Europe are digging in their heels against military involvement in the Middle East as President Trump lashes out against NATO allies for their reluctance to support the U.S. operation in Iran. The NATO alliance has come under increasing strain in recent weeks due to a deepening rift over the war with Iran, with the vital Strait of Hormuz at the epicentre of Trump’s pressure campaign. Though some NATO countries, including the United Kingdom, have signalled a “readiness to contribute” to help reopen the strait, they have resisted calls to enter the war in a broader capacity. France has called for a diplomatic solution since the onset of the conflict, joining the U.K. and Germany in pressing the U.S. to pursue diplomatic negotiations with Iran. Italy and Spain have refused to grant the U.S. to land planes at military bases. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has perhaps been the most vocal critic of the conflict with Iran, repeatedly warning about the potential toll on human life and economic disruption as strikes escalate. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier described the ongoing conflict as a “disastrous mistake”. German Chancellor Merz complains that “Washington has not consulted us and did not say European assistance was necessary. There is no “convincing plan for how this operation could succeed,” Merz told German legislators on March 18.[3]
EU Commits €1.6 Billion to Rebuild and Modernise European DefenceTech – The European Commission has launched two new funding programmes designed to fundamentally strengthen the European defence industry. With the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) and the new pilot instrument AGILE, Brussels is making a total of approximately €1.615 billion available to increase both industrial production capacity and the pace of technological innovation in Europe. European priorities include:
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Making Europe Great Again is benefiting from its HALO, heavy asset, low obsolescence exposure. The war has further widened the rift between the U.S. and its NATO allies as they steer clear of active military involvement, with the future fate of NATO post the Iran War on the line. Europe argues that given they were not consulted on the action, they are not required to be involved. Europe’s resolve for autonomy, self-determination and cooperation has been reinforced, but can NATO survive without the U.S.?
[1] Source: Vettafi. Data as of 31.03.2026
[2] https://global.morningstar.com/en-nd/stocks/could-european-stocks-be-home-anti-ai-trade
[3] https://thehill.com/policy/international/5809595-us-allies-europe-iran-war/
[4] https://www.trendingtopics.eu/eu-commits-e1-6-billion-to-rebuild-and-modernise-european-defencetech/
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