Published Date: May 1, 2026
Author: HANetf
Why did gold decline despite geopolitical conflict and surging oil prices? – Gold experienced its largest monthly decline since 2008 due to forced liquidations and margin calls, as it has become a crowded trade. The almost -15% decline in spot prices has surprised investors who typically view the metal as a safe haven in times of geopolitical stress.[1] A stronger U.S. dollar (DXY) and rising real interest rates also weighed on gold, but the metal has also fallen in other currencies and has dropped even on days when the dollar weakened, suggesting deeper forces are at play. Over the last year, gold has become a very popular trade, attracting heavy inflows from investors and central banks alike. So, when the Iran conflict began, traders sold gold assets to lock in their gains and access liquidity, thus accelerating declines. In addition, the current energy shock could force some countries like China and India to deplete cash reserves instead of stockpiling gold. The lesson here is that even “safe haven” assets can sell off if there are too many investors in the same crowded trade. Gold’s recent decline during geopolitical turmoil is a function of liquidity-driven selling, not a failure of its safe-haven status.[2]
Goldman Maintains Gold Forecast – Goldman Sachs is maintaining its forecast for gold to reach $5,400 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, driven by expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, a normalisation in speculative positioning, and continued central bank buying. Goldman highlights the energy supply disruption triggered by the war which has stoked inflation fears and led markets to price out Fed rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Record levels of call option demand earlier this year also left gold exposed. As Goldman flagged last month, that positioning meant even a mild equity market correction could produce an outsized pullback in gold prices, pointing to $4,700 as the floor of such a move. The analysts pushed back on the notion that gold has failed in its role as a safe-haven or inflation hedge. Gold, they argue, behaves differently depending on the type of inflationary shock. Supply-driven stagflation, like the current episode, historically tends to favour commodities over gold, while the gold performs best when the threat stems from institutional credibility risks, such as doubts about a central bank’s ability to curtail inflation. Goldman’s base case rests on three drivers: a normalisation of speculative positioning, which the bank estimates are worth around $195 per troy ounce; a 50 basis points of Fed cuts expected by its economists, adding roughly $120; and a re-acceleration of central bank buying to around 60 tonnes per month, contributing an estimated $535.[3]
Gold Mining Stocks Decline as Rate Expectations Change – Global gold-mining stocks fell and are now in the red for this year as traders ratcheted back expectations for interest-rate cuts with oil prices surging amid the Iran war. The metal has declined about -12% since the start of the war as costlier energy risks sparking inflation and making it harder for central banks to reduce borrowing costs. That poses a risk for bullion, which performs better when rates are lower since it offers no yield.[4] Traders no longer see Federal Reserve policy easing this year and some are hedging for a potential hike. The other force working against gold in recent weeks is that the US dollar has emerged as a key haven during the conflict, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gaining +1.5% in March. “When volatility hits, the market sells anything liquid, and miners are liquid,” Matthew Tuttle, chief executive officer of Tuttle Capital Management, wrote in a note to clients. “Add the fear that oil stays high, and you get a fast, ugly unwind — even in companies that are still printing cash.” Beyond the liquidity trade, the fundamentals for gold miners remain positive with Barrick Gold expected to see annual earnings growth of +55% this year and Agnico Eagle, a +72% YOY increase. If oil prices stabilise and pressure from interest rates and the dollar eases, miners with net cash, lower costs and high-quality assets like Newmont and Agnico Eagle will likely rebound, Tuttle wrote.[5]
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The Iran War has had negative ramifications for most areas of the market except for Energy. U.S. crude prices have spiked to above $100 a barrel, surging 57% in March, the biggest monthly gain since 1988.[6] Fears of higher inflation have negated hopes for rate cuts this year. And appreciated areas of the market such as gold have defied its long-term fundamentals and sold off in liquidity-driven selling. Typically, gold rallies when there is geopolitical uncertainty, but these crowded trades were not immune from a crowded trade sell-off.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-set-worst-month-more-than-17-years-us-rate-cut-hopes-fade-2026-03-31/
[2] https://seekingalpha.com/news/4567162-gold-slumps-despite-war-exposing-crowded-trade-risks
[3] https://www.investing.com/
[4]https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices#:~:text=Traditionally%2C%20a%20weaker%20dollar%20and,Treasuries%20and%20money%20market%20funds.
[5]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-19/gold-mining-stocks-set-to-erase-2026-gains-as-rate-cut-bets-fade
[6]https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-jump-after-yemeni-houthis-attack-israel-widening-iran-conflict-2026-03-29/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
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