Published Date: August 20, 2024
Author: HANetf
Elections have commanded attention of late with a change of government in the UK, a narrow victory by the left of center coalition in France and the decision by US president Biden to step aside in the coming election in favor of vice president Kamala Harris. While the former two results were generally met with relief, the outcome in the US remains a toss-up. With Harris supplanting Biden, the Democratic vs. Republican differences we have discussed in previous notes remains in place.
Central banks around the world have begun reducing policy rates with the view that inflation has largely come under control and the challenge now is to avoid tipping economies into recession. Sweden, Switzerland, Canada, the UK and the ECB have all lowered rates. Japan, which raised rates at the end of July, exists in a different economic environment. As the BoJ hoped, the Japanese yen has responded with a slight strengthening. The Federal Reserve’s July meeting did not lead to a rate reduction, but Chair Powell stated that a potential cut would be on the table in September, leading the ten-year treasury yield to dip below 4%.
In July the Shariah Active ETF slipped -0.35%, with technology holdings generally detracting from returns and a broad mix of stocks providing positive returns. Performance was especially poor among two non-technology holdings, Edwards Life and Lululemon. Edwards, a leader in heart stent technology failed to meet volume expectations, although we believe this to be a short-term issue. Lululemon continues to suffer from weaker consumer spending. We are hopeful that the Paris Olympics will provide support and are of the opinion that the Canadian kit, supplied by LULU, looks impressive compared to many other countries. ASML, Microsoft, Taiwan Semiconductor, Alphabet and Broadcom were among the tech names that pulled down returns. On the positive side, Swiss generic drug company Sandoz, a new addition to the portfolio, was the top performer during the month, followed by building supply company Ferguson, DIY home improvement leader Lowe’s, medical specialties company Agilent and government-focused software firm Tyler Technology. US car parts supplier AutoZone was another positive holding. During the month we sold Eli Lilly, believing that the valuation had captured the return potential of its portfolio, including weight reduction and Alzheimer’s drugs. It was replaced by Sandoz and a small position in Nvidia.
Source of all performance data: HANetf / Bloomberg as of 31.07.2024. Additional sources available upon request. Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Past performance is not indicative of future performance and when you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk.
The return of volatility?
For the past year stock market volatility, as measured by the CBOE SPX Volatility Index, has demonstrated a pattern of lower lows and lower highs. Recent activity indicates we may be testing that pattern in the near future as the VIX climbs toward its previous high in April. Looking at Nvidia, the largest driver of market returns year-to-date, investors seem to be having trouble making up their minds. After declining through most of the back half of July, strong capex guidance from Microsoft and others sent the shares up 12.8% on July 31st, which was followed by a ~5% decline the following day. Whether interest rates, elections or the state of affairs in the Middle East, we cannot say, but investor uncertainty appears to be rising.
AMAL (Fund)1M2.99%3M-0.21%6M6.42%YTD11.54%12M16.65%3Y59.20%Since Inception (28/09/2020)55.12%
Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31/07/2024. Performance before inception is based on back tested data. Back testing is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such strategy would have been. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”)
before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs and ETCs, your capital is at risk.
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