Published Date: May 28, 2026
Author: HANetf
Are Gold and Gold Miners Ripe for Rally Resumption – Why has gold, as a safe haven asset performed poorly during the Iran conflict? Despite gold’s reputation as a hedge against geopolitical crises and uncertainty, gold spot suffered its biggest two-month drop ever in March and April. This time around, a stronger US dollar is not to blame for lower gold prices, as the US dollar index (DXY) sits at close to pre-war levels. The biggest culprit seems to be the exuberant market sentiment and a crowded trade heading into the conflict. But fortunately for gold traders, the recent correction has worked off some of the over-bullish sentiment. History reminds us that gold and gold mining stocks perform best right after investors have thrown in the towel of capitulation. This bodes well for a gain in gold and gold mining stocks over the coming months, as fundamentals, not market sentiment come to the fore. Several mining stocks have rallied YTD on strong earnings results, including Newmont, NovaGold, and Harmony Gold.[1]
Gold Rally Building on 3-Tiers of Demand – Gold’s rally has many layers of demand backing it. Prior to ETF flows or retail participation, central bank purchases established the cycle. Annual net purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes for three consecutive years between 2022 and 2024. In 2025, purchases moderated to 863 tonnes, below the prior three-year pace but still above the historical average.[2] A second wave of demand kicked off in 2025 with the re-engagement of institutional and retail investor flows. ETF holdings increased by approximately 801 tonnes globally.[3] Bar and coin demand reached multi-year highs across multiple regions and the rally transitioned from narrow to broad-based, sovereign accumulation. But a third layer of demand has emerged, related to crypto. Stablecoin reserve accumulation and tokenised gold are becoming growing sources of new demand.[4] While central bank demand is moderating due to the de-dollarisation trade, growing ETF and investment demand and crypto-native demand will pick up some of that slack and help keep the gold bull market going. And for gold mining stocks, the absence of new sources and fixed cost structure, make them an attractive method to leverage higher sustained gold prices. Gold is likely to start a new sustained rally once markets realise central banks have not addressed the issue of rising inflation triggered by higher oil prices.[5]
Understanding the Recent Inverse Correlation of Gold and Oil – Up until recently, oil and gold prices have had a long history of positive correlation. In fact, many investors watch the gold-to-oil ratio as a relative valuation measure. The fact that gold and oil are currently moving in opposite directions may seem confusing and unexpected, especially given gold’s role as a safe-haven asset in times of geopolitical tension and an inflation hedge – both issues currently at stake. The main reason oil and gold are now trending in opposite directions is that markets expect central banks to raise interest rates, which tends to be negative for gold prices. Bank of America recently suggested that oil should be sold once it surpasses $100/barrel, because at that point, governments and central banks will be forced to take measures to rein in inflation. But another factor in play for central banks is fiscal debt. Interest costs are a main driver of deficits and higher rates would push deficits even higher.[6] The Fed has been taking a wait and see approach along with other central banks around the world, hoping that oil price inflation is transitory. Add to concerns in the US about the cost of the war further adding to deficits, and there is quite an incentive for the Fed to keep interest rates low, especially if other economic growth signals like employment are positive. What will the post-war economy look like? If rates stay level, but there is still concern about inflation, central bankers may be upping their stash of gold. And, if gold prices stay ahead of cost pressures, gold miners are a good place to be. Last quarter (Q4), AISC’s (all-in sustaining costs) were just 40% of average prevailing gold prices, the lowest level in 39 quarters. That leaves a lot of room for higher energy costs.[7] [8]
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The biggest concern for a long-term rally right now is the prospect of inflation driving a need for higher interest rates. But higher fiscal deficits make raising rates a difficult task. Central banks are hoping that the inflation pressures of higher oil prices are only temporary and that the economy can shake off higher input costs. Hence the reason that gold and oil prices, which are usually in lockstep historically, are heading in opposite directions. Peace in the Middle East is bad for oil prices but should be good for gold post-war as investors look for inflation hedges. Also bolstering the case for gold are the strong earnings results being reported by gold mining companies. Input costs may be heading higher, but margins are still at historically wide levels.[9]
[1] https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026050594/this-gold-timing-indicator-just-hit-a-bottom-and-history-says-a-strong-rally-is-next
[2] https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025/central-banks
[3] https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025/central-banks
[4] https://www.investing.com/
[5] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4884097-gld-explaining-the-inverse-correlation-between-oil-and-gold-prices
[6] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4884097-gld-explaining-the-inverse-correlation-between-oil-and-gold-prices
[7] Source: VettaFi. Data as of 30.04.2026
[8] https://www.investing.com/
[9] https://discoveryalert.com.au/gold-miners-margin-compression-correction-consolidation-2026/
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