Published Date: July 27, 2026
Author: HANetf
Several Firms Lowering Price Forecasts, But Still Bullish Long-Term– Gold has a reputation with investors as a safe haven asset and inflation hedge. But with the war in Iran raising oil prices and driving up inflation, there is concern that interest rates could move higher to curb inflation. Given that gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, despite global instability and economic uncertainty, near-term price expectations for gold are coming down.
For now, gold prices are likely to be driven by three key factors: 1) the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, 2) movements in the US dollar, and 3) geopolitical developments in the Middle East. If rate cuts are delayed, gold could remain under pressure in the near term. But if the Fed eventually eases policy, many of the world’s largest investment banks believe gold has room to climb toward fresh record highs over the long-term.[1] [2] [3] [4]
Long-Term Outlook for Gold Miners – Gold is currently at $4,200 an ounce. Gold prices are a big driver of gold mining stocks as a leveraged play on physical gold. Miners can expand profit margins during rising price environments. Amid price headwinds, gold miners with stronger balance sheets and lower production costs are better positioned to weather price swings in gold and operational costs. With valuations coming down, it may creates good entry points for large. Despite recent declines, gold prices are still up +150% since late 2022 on worries about tariffs, geopolitical issues, fiscal deficits and debt levels, and a weaker US dollar. This environment has promoted M&A activity while also incentivising organic growth. It has also promoted an acceleration in global projects. Agnico Eagle for example has expanded its presence in Finland and is proceeding with its Hope Bay development project in Northern Canada. This portends that the companies themselves are bullish over the long-term.[5] [6]
Why Second Half of 2026 Could Be Better for Gold Mining Stocks – Seasonality favours gold mining stocks in the second half of the year as March and June tend to be weak months for gold [7] Of course, seasonality is not the only factor in play. The outlook for gold has changed considerably in 2026, with the year starting out with the Fed expected to cut rates. But the war with Iran has changed that given its inflationary impact on energy prices. Those bullish on gold and, by extension, those mining gold can still count on a number of fundamental drivers that are pushing people to find gold attractive. For instance, the debasing of currencies continues, including in the U.S., with the M2 money supply continuing to march upwards unabated. And then there is the U.S. national debt, now close to $40 trillion. Those debt levels are likely to go even higher to pay for the Iran conflict, with current cost estimates of $80-$100 billion and counting. While the crisis in the Middle East has caused problems for physical gold and gold miners, the event could prove to be far more beneficial in the long term, especially if history is any guide. Many believe the oil crisis of 2026 is similar to the oil crisis of 1973. Gold fell in response to the uncertainty caused by the oil crisis of 1973, specifically as it related to what the Federal Reserve might do in response to the oil crisis. Ultimately, gold took off and rallied for the rest of the seventies, benefiting from an environment of stagflation. During stagflation, gold historically performs exceptionally well. Because stagflation features stagnant economic growth and high inflation, traditional assets like stocks and bonds often struggle. [8] Investors have moved to gold as a safe-haven asset and a reliable store of purchasing power.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance and when you invest in ETFs your capital is at risk
Gold soared to record highs in January, crossing above $5,500 an ounce, before dipping to below $4,000 by the end of June. The first half of 2026 showed that gold remains sensitive to heightened geopolitical events and abrupt shifts in investor sentiment. It also showcased the growing relevance of Asian markets in gold price discovery. At current levels, gold’s price is broadly in line with a global backdrop of moderate growth, cooling but still elevated inflation, and expectations of further – but limited – central bank tightening related to the inflationary impact of the Iran war. According to the World Gold Council, under these conditions, gold will likely stay relatively rangebound (±5%). But the stage is set for a possible 2H breakout. On the upside, a worsening economy or renewed geopolitical shock, a shift towards lower interest-rate expectations, or a wave of dip buying could reignite gold’s momentum. If the signals are strong, gold could push even higher toward the $6,000 level, in-line with the most bullish firm estimates. Conversely, an environment of resilient growth, rising yields, and calmer markets could send gold down further. But in that scenario, a fall of more than -10% from current levels would likely surface some bargain-hunting demand. Finally, enduring central bank demand and policy shifts in key markets like India are other wildcards that could subtly influence gold’s trajectory in the second half of the year.[9] [10]
Please note that all performance figures are showing net data. Source: Bloomberg / HANetf. Data as of 31.07.2026
Past performance for the index is in USD. Past performance is not an indicator for future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Investors should read the prospectus of the Issuer (“Prospectus”) before investing and should refer to the section of the Prospectus entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment in this product. When you invest in ETFs and ETCs, your capital is at risk.
[1] Yahoo!Finance
[2] Reuters
[3] EconomicTimes
[4] News18
[5] Morningstar
[6] SimplyWallSt
[7] Investing.com
[8] SeekingAlpha
[9] World Gold Council
[10] Source: VettaFi
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