Published Date: April 30, 2025
Author: HANetf
Other than the very front of the curve, Treasury rates fell significantly during the quarter with the rally most pronounced in the intermediate portion of the curve. This move partially reversed some of the dramatic selloff witnessed in Q4.
Spreads across most fixed-income sectors widened during the quarter. Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) were an exception.
Prior to the unveiling of President Trump’s tariff plan on April 2nd, the market had existing concerns in Q1 around the Trump Administration’s trade policy and agenda, raising fears of a global trade war and an economic downturn even without the details. The S&P 500 recorded its worst quarterly performance since 2022. Bond markets priced in more interest-rate cuts this year on increased expectations that the Federal Reserve would intervene in the event of a global recession caused by a trade war.
The strongest contributors to Fund performance during the quarter were our Long U.S. Treasuries and Taxable Municipals. These sectors are more sensitive to interest rate movements and therefore benefitted greatly from the fall in interest rates during the quarter.
While our high yield segment did benefit from lower Treasury rates in the 3- to 7-year part of the curve, this benefit was offset as spreads widened during the quarter.
The ETF’s leadership team is excited about the go-forward potential of the ETF. We believe the overall high level of interest rates, the shift in the yield curve, and the new opportunities created as a result of the changing landscape offer fresh ways to create additional total return. For example, the recent spread widening, and greater slope in the 3- to 10-year part of the curve, present attractive potential in sectors we have largely avoided in the recent past due to tight credit spreads and a flat or inverted yield curve.
The unpredictability and resulting market volatility reminds us of the advantage of a nimble bond manager with a bottom-up, maths-based process. Rather than focusing on predictions and macroeconomic noise, Shape Management allows us to focus on buying what we perceive as the best available bonds with the greatest potential for outperformance over time.
Additional sources available upon request. All data as of 31/03/2025.
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