Published Date: October 22, 2024
Author: HANetf
In September, cryptoassets, particularly Bitcoin and gold, outperformed traditional assets like equities and bonds, driven by central bank easing measures, and Bitcoin’s historically poor September performance was positively surprising with a +7.4% gain. With further Fed rate cuts expected and seasonal trends favouring strong performance in the final months of the year, Bitcoin and other cryptoassets are anticipated to benefit from increasing liquidity and could see significant gains through 2025.
A US recession remains our base case for the time being on account of several leading labour market indicators that still signal an increase in the US unemployment rate. That being said, a US recession may not be as detrimental to Bitcoin and other crypto assets as some might fear. On the contrary, it could lead to greater expectations of Fed rate cuts and US Dollar weakness, which might actually provide a tailwind for Bitcoin. The rising global liquidity tide will be a strong support for scarce assets like Bitcoin over the coming months and well into 2025.
If past Bitcoin Halving events are any guide, the Halving effect is becoming increasingly significant since late July/early August this year. However, retail participation still remains somewhat subdued, but we expect a pick-up in Q4 due to more favourable seasonality. All in all, several on-chain metrics for illiquid supply imply that bitcoin’s supply scarcity due to the Halving and renewed accumulation is indeed intensifying.
Read more in our latest monthly report on our website.
Source of all data: Bitwise. Data as of 30.09.2024. Additional sources available upon request.
©Bitwise Europe (formerly ETC Group) 2019-2024│All rights reserved
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